With its shares down more than 75% over the past year, SeaDrill Limited (SDRL) - Get Report has drowned in losses for quite some time. So Thursday's 7.62% decline following the company's earnings miss was no surprise.
The weak revenue was driven by a combination of lower demand in its floaters and Jack-up Rigs segments. But given the company's dependance on oil prices, which is still at decade lows, the frail results weren't surprising either. The difference was that the market expected better results. Accordingly, now's the time to take the other side of the trade. And with some patience, SDRL stock can deliver more than 50% in the next 12 to 18 months.
The stock closed Thursday at $3.15, recovering slightly from a session low of $3.07. The shares are down almost 7.08% so far on the year, compared with a 2.26% rise in the S&P 500 (SPX) index. And when factoring in Thursday's decline, the company's shares have fallen almost 22% just in the past two months. This is even as the contract drilling specialist is likely to benefit from the recent rebound in oil prices. And it's for this reason, taking a contrarian view on SDRL stock can pay off. Take a look at the chart below, courtesy of TradingView.
From the chart, you can see how the stock has fallen from its March high of around $6.46 to current levels of about $3.15. And as of Thursday's closing price, SDRL stock is now trading at some 75% below its 52-week high of $12.88. At the same time, the stock has surged 100% from its 52-week low of $1.57, reached in February. Although the Thursday's earnings disappointed investors, the stock showed strength by bouncing off support at $3.06.
Psychologically, there is now a line in the sand. And the fact that the stock maintained in 100-day average at $3.08 is another near-term bullish signal. In the long term, the chart shows (green arrow) that the stock is likely to maintain its current pattern to reach resistance back toward $4.78, translating to a rise of 51.7%. On its way there, it will recapture its 20-day moving average of $3.72 (blue line), rising 18%. Essentially, from a risk-versus-reward perspective, the potential gains trump the downside risk, until the charts say otherwise.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.