Here's my summary of why this market is BRU-TAL. Say you're a day trader. You're following Friday's
TheStreet.com Internet Sector
index down, and loving it. Shoot, it's 3 o'clock, and the thing looks sunk. And only 60 short minutes later, you're the one who's sunk. Geez, I'm going to start getting out my Buffett books: He never worries about this stuff.
Anyway, here we are, another exciting version of the
Technical Forum! I'm your host, Gary B. Smith, and for the next 10 minutes (20 if you're a slow reader), I'll dazzle you with my know-how and acumen. Especially on the final chart.
Have a curve ball for me? Throw it in, 'cause I'm all hit, no field. Questions go to
email@example.com, and if you include your full name that significantly raises your odds of getting a response.
Blue Plate Special
I am learning TA from your columns, as well as the books you recommended. I haven't used it in practice yet, as I want to make sure I have a good grasp of TA first. The stock I'm looking at is EchoStar Communications (DISH) - Get DISH Network Corporation Class A Report. By looking at a three-month chart, it appears that it is forming an ascending triangle and trading in an increasingly narrow trading range. It seems to have tested resistance twice at about 120. Plus, it has bounced nicely off its 50-day moving average. My guess is that if it can clear 118 on nice volume it should have a nice run up. So tell me, have I learned anything yet or do I need to hit the books even harder? -- Walter Benvin
Shy Away From This Short
Your style of writing reminds me of Benjamin Franklin: deceptively simple, easily integrated and piercingly insightful. Your columns should be bundled into a Poor Gary's Almanac for Traders. On to the questions: As a rabid fan, I opened an account with Worden Brothers, and then input what I believed to be the most recent GBS long and GBS short scans into TC2000. Last week, Visx (VISX) appeared to me to be an ideal GBS short, appearing penultimate on the scan, so I jumped in. Only on Saturday, you advised sitting on the sidelines on this one. Could you direct me to your most recent scans for TC2000? Please shed insight on when a severe selloff in a position is so risky you would sit on the sidelines. -- Lon Alexander
You certainly aced the compliment category! As for my scans, check out my May 3
column. And on the subject of avoiding shorts, I generally will not short a stock that's been down more than two days in a row. This isn't ironclad, of course, but the key is identifying when a stock is already in a downtrend, and steering clear of it. The attached chart of VISX is a good example.
Head? Or Blob?
I was looking at a chart of the Nasdaq, and it appears to me it has formed a head and shoulders. (Not that I am big on H&S and seldom look for them, but . . .) Since it tested and held support last Thursday, I was wondering how this will affect the H&S formation. It appears to me the chart is broken and won't break resistance on the upside for some time. -- Chris Cox
Net Stocks' Silver Lining
The other day you showed the charts of a number of Internet stocks. You pointed out how bearish the daily charts looked. I agree with you: They look bad! If you look at the monthly charts, you get a completely different picture. The selloffs look like a pullback in a long-term bull market. Some are near their long-term trendlines. What do you think? -- Martin Linder
You raise an interesting point: One's view of a chart depends entirely on the time frame. As an example, I discussed
column, and noted the stock could drop another 25 points, and still be in an uptrend!
So, as a trader, you always have to remember what your goals are and what time frame you're trading in. If you were a long-term trader whose holding period was months or even years, many of the Internet stocks, as you point out, are nowhere near collapse. It's for that very reason that when folks ask about the long-term prospects of a company, I invariably use a weekly chart.
I like CMGI (CMGI) both as a long hold and to short. After Friday, I feel it may be at its bottom while the market as a whole may not be. Perhaps I should say a temporary bottom. I am just learning about technical charting. Your technical opinion of CMGI would be great. -- Kay DiPalma
Beware of Red INKT
Would you mind venturing your opinion of Inktomi (INKT) ? I'm long the stock. I took my eye off the ball and got buried in it, then recouped some off of hefty premiums paid me for the calls. But what now? -- Noel Richardson
Green Light For Dendrite
You might look at Dendrite International (DRTE) . It recently broke out. What's interesting is the volume pattern. The last four days, the volume has been (red down, green up) red-green-green-red with almost the same volume (above average) each day. On the red days, it fell just a bit and surged on the green ones. Any significance to the volume pattern? Do you have a price target on it? -- Jim Garrison
Where is GNET Going?
I've already made the subscription price tenfold based on your charts. I would love to get your views on Go2net (GNET) . It has a split on June 24. Paul Allen, ex-Microsoft (MSFT) - Get Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) Report guru and billionaire, has a huge stake in it. -- Jim Bufkins
Gary B. Smith is a freelance writer who trades for his own account from his Maryland home using technical analysis. At time of publication, he held no positions in any securities mentioned in this column, although holdings can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Smith writes five technical analysis columns for TheStreet.com each week, including Technician's Take, Charted Territory and TSC Technical Forum. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he welcomes your feedback at