Remember, it's the decoupling
thesis that will get the market going. We have to have several days where the tail of Asia and Europe does not wag the dog of the United States.
I know, I know, that's just the usual jingoist, xenophobic rap of mine and the globalists know much better. But I love betting against those guys and I know that the U.S. is in the best shape of any of these countries. Think about it. The U.K. now has the worst of all possible worlds. They have rising rates, declining earnings and rising inflation. That's the nightmarish, lacking-in-virtue circle that we must avoid. Yet our
futures trade right off of London, so in fairly typical fashion we get a nasty selloff at the opening when that worst-of-all-possible-worlds market most affects our own. Then, by midmorning, our own fundamentals take over and the market stabilizes and gets stronger.
Then in the afternoon we have that weird
effect with the lineup of bears squawking on the set and the foreigners coming in at the end to average up on their sell orders from the morning. That's why we keep getting this top-of-the-day-at-1 p.m. syndrome.
When we see this pattern broken -- in other words, when London can't knock our market down in the morning and when Street Signs on
doesn't club the market -- we will be out of the woods. But make no mistake about it, the pattern is still in force. Maybe
decision to take a break this week could somehow alter the afternoon pattern, but it's too soon to tell.
How else does the pattern get broken? Okay, let's take this morning. Hideous opening, great relief by anybody who sold, and then nothing until midmorning, when the market ramped. But then the ramp brings out sellers and it gets undone again. You need to see the market open stronger than Europe and then stay strong throughout the day and not have either the opening dip or the afternoon dip. Can it happen? It happened many times since October 1992, so I wouldn't bet against it, but I don't want to jump the gun either.
Don't you love how the "bulls" come on
and now try hard, under their breath or with a cough or from the side of their mouth, say, "Well, I am not that bullish." You hit bottom when
says, "So I understand you are bullish on the market?" And the guest says, "Oh, no, you've got that wrong. I'm a bear. Your homework is wrong about me. I hate the market." If I miss that reversal, please email me and let me know. That's called confirmation.
James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-chairman of TheStreet.com. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column by sending a letter to TheStreet.com at