Bolling: It's Not So Bad Out There - TheStreet

Bolling: It's Not So Bad Out There

Trend traders are beating up financial stocks as if all were bad.
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To my mind, things not as bad as everyone seems to think.

Alcoa

(AA) - Get Report

and

General Electric

(GE) - Get Report

beat analysts' estimates. And

Intel

(INTC) - Get Report

,

Altera

(ALTR) - Get Report

and

Wells Fargo

(WFC) - Get Report

have posted solid quarterly performances. Plus, crude oil dropped $6.49 on Tuesday and is down more than $1 on Wednesday.

No industrial production numbers were expected to rise for the first time in more than three months.

Citigroup

(C) - Get Report

reports results on Friday. The stock has been crushed, closing at $14.50 after hitting $56 a little more than a year ago. Analysts around the Street are certainly going to shoot low; after all, any analyst who has been around for a while is surely not going to go out on a limb with overly optimistic Citi numbers.

So what am I missing? How does the Street continue to put such a beating on the market? It's the trend, stupid!

It took almost five hours and 15 innings for the American League to win another All-Star Game. That is a trend. Oil has been up for three years, up more than 300% -- that is a trend.

Fannie Mae

(FNM)

and

Freddie Mac

(FRE)

are off almost 90% -- that is a trend. And the stock market is being beaten senseless as trend traders beat up stocks in the financials as if all were bad.

But it's not all bad. Shares are trending lower, but some should be bought, not sold at these bargain prices.

Wells Fargo's numbers were good enough for it to raise its dividend.

Thursday should be a big day as

Microsoft

(MSFT) - Get Report

,

JPMorgan Chase

(JPM) - Get Report

, and

Merrill Lynch

(MER)

all report earnings.

Traders hate surprises, so it's going to be important that these three (and Citigroup on Friday) release in line with no major surprises. If they do, I think we may be ripe for a rally. Whether it ends up being a change in the trend or a bear market rally will depend on items such as volumes, speed of the rally and exactly how high it goes.

In any event, I bought the

Financial Select Sector SPDR

(XLF) - Get Report

ETF yesterday and am looking for a bounce. I am long at $17.55 and will stop myself out under $17. I am looking for a $20 target if things improve.

I am also maintaining my long position (although it hasn't been easy) in

Goldman Sachs

(GS) - Get Report

with a long-term bullish bias on the best bank in the business.

Trade with your head, not over it.

At the time of publication, Bolling was long Goldman Sachs.

Eric Bolling is a host on the new Fox Business Network. Bolling was one of the developers and original panelists (nicknamed "The Admiral") on CNBC's "Fast Money."

Bolling is an active trader specializing in commodities, resource trades and ETFs.

Bolling is a member of several exchanges including The New York Mercantile Exchange (NMX), The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) and The Commodity Exchange of New York.

After spending 5 years on the Board of Directors at the NYMEX, he became a strategic adviser to that Board of Directors where he assisted in bringing the company (NMX) public. He has been included in Trader Monthly Top 100 in 2005 and 2006. Bolling was the recipient of the Maybach Man of the Year Award in 2007 for his contribution of philanthropy and willingness to de-mystify investing to Main Street.

Bolling graduated from Rollins College in Winter Park, Florida and was awarded a fellowship to Duke University. Bolling was an accomplished baseball player. He was drafted by the Pittsburgh Pirates where he played before his career was cut short due to injuries. He honors his baseball past by sporting the NYMEX trader badge, R.B.I.