People are running scared in tech. Because people who own tech are learning the lesson of the oil drillers: Just because something is down so much doesn't mean it is done going down. Just because something is so low that it looks like it has to bottom, doesn't mean you shouldn't short it.
Last November, when the oil-service stocks took their drubbing, there was an overwhelming sense that it couldn't be this bad. All the analysts upgraded or stuck by their buys, giving you a totally false sense of security. Now most of these names are on the 52-week-low list and as
, an excellent
points out every day, neither earnings surprises nor mergers can help this group now. With crude below $13 you can kiss those stocks goodbye. And don't debate me on this; you are just dreaming and playing with hope if you take the other side of my logic. These stocks are still excellent shorts.
That's what went through my mind
yesterday when I saw the action in
. Heck, Lattice was at its 52-week low and it still gave up nine points. I figured four-five at the most. I thought the only guys who owned Lattice were value guys who never sell -- you know, those
types who stay on the bid side and ruin every hedge-fund manager's great short.
Western Digital, well, I'll be -- I thought the risk was completely out of this stock. Wrong!!! Rough stuff.
So we all huddle in Internet shares -- no earnings estimates, so no earnings to blow -- and a couple of hardware and networking names. And we cross our fingers.
That's not investing. That's hoping.
That doesn't cut it.
No wonder I like the drug and bank stocks so much.
James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-chairman of
Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column by sending a letter to TheStreet.com at