The problem has never been earnings; the problems have been interest rates and supply. Which is why we can't just burst up here on
coattails. We may have had a bunch of deals postponed, but we need them to be scuttled. We may have had a blip up in the bond futures, but we haven't had the auction yet.
Hence all of the confusion this morning. Nobody really wants to sound an all-clear because of Cisco since, well, nobody was really worried about Cisco to begin with!
That's why it might be fun to jump ahead and anticipate a good bond market, but that's sure proven an expensive bet so far this year. (And I am still focused on this
blowup to see how that will affect rates.)
Everything's still a trade.
My vacationing partner,
, just called in. To summarize my half of our exchange:
- The advance/decline looks terrific compared to previous days, when it's been terrible.
The action in Cisco is constructive but not nuts to the upside.
The action in the Net is disconcerting, but the
DOT rallied yesterday ahead of the rest of the market, so that's consistent with a possible rally.
The bonds are doing nothing ahead of the earnings.
I am the only one worried about this Great American thing -- Berko's amusement-park outings have pervaded my thoughts here! -- which bothers me.
I wish I owned more
Intel (INTC) .
It's too early to judge, but the market is oversold enough that it won't go down big.
With this information, he decided to go out for the day rather than hang by the phone.
James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-founder of TheStreet.com. At time of publication, his fund was long Cisco and Intel. His fund often buys and sells securities that are the subject of his columns, both before and after the columns are published, and the positions that his fund takes may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column at