AT&T Expected to See Drop in Mobile Voice Revenue - TheStreet

The average revenue per user (ARPU) for

AT&T

's

(T) - Get Report

mobile data, which includes SMS, Internet, games, is expected to increase over the coming years, while the company's average revenue per user for mobile voice services is projected to decline gradually.

Trefis members have created forecasts for two key drivers of AT&T's stock over the last week: the SMS & Internet revenue per AT&T mobile subscriber and mobile subscriber plan pricing. The member forecasts suggest that both drivers will trend in line with the estimates of the in-house team of analysts at Trefis.

AT&T competes with other mobile service providers

Sprint Nextel

(S) - Get Report

and

Verizon

(VZ) - Get Report

as well as VOIP providers

Comcast

(CMCSA) - Get Report

and

Time Warner Cable

(TWC)

.

We currently have a Trefis price estimate of $38 for AT&T's stock, about 44% above the current market price of around $27.

AT&T's stock is quite sensitive to both drivers. Below are charts showing recent estimates created by Trefis members for the two drivers in detail.

The average of Trefis member forecasts for SMS & Internet revenue per AT&T mobile subscriber indicates an increase from $16 per month in 2010 to around $27 per month by 2016, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of an increase from $17 per month in 2010 to $28 per month by the end of the Trefis forecast period.

The member estimates imply a downside of 1% to the Trefis price estimate for AT&T's stock. In the past, SMS & Internet revenue per AT&T mobile subscriber has increased from $3 per month in 2003 to $14.50 per month in 2009.

Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of AT&T's stock to SMS & Internet revenue per AT&T mobile subscriber.

The average of forecasts for mobile subscriber plan pricing created by Trefis members indicated a projected decrease from $39 per month in 2010 to $37 per month 2016, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of a decrease from $40 per month in 2010 to $38.50 per month by the end of the Trefis forecast period.

The member estimates imply a downside of 1% to the Trefis price estimate for AT&T's stock. In the past, mobile subscriber plan pricing has decreased from $55.50 per month in 2003 to $42 per month in 2009.

Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of AT&T's stock to mobile subscriber plan pricing.

Our complete analysis for AT&T's stock is

here

.

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.

Trefis Members constitute more than tens of thousands of users of the Trefis platform, inclusive of investors, financial analysts, and business professionals who use the Trefis platform to create their own models and price estimates.

Trefis

is a financial community structured around trends, forecasts and insights related to some of the most popular stocks in the U.S.