Nothing kills you like homework.
Yesterday, feeling cyclical, I couldn't resist making calls on two beaten-down war horses,
Why those two? Look, I am a Philadelphian, and these two stocks are in my hometown paper every week as being two of the lowliest, most misfortunate, if not mismanaged, companies on the firmament. I keep thinking something right has to happen to these guys.
So, what happens when I make my calls? First, I discover that all the earnings estimates are too high. Second, I find out that, in both cases, business has been weak of late. Third, none of the analysts thinks there is a near-term catalyst.
Talk about a buy signal! Hoo-hah!
Both stocks are up 10%.
What can I do? As much as I love playing hunches and can value the undervalued, I can't switch gears to the point where I don't care about near-term fundamentals. I've gotta get some real rose-colored glasses.
But there is irony here, too.
reported a huge upside surprise, one trumped only by
. And those stocks are getting crushed.
My eldest would call it "frontsie-backsie day." Thank heavens it only lasts one day at school. How much longer can it last here?
How does this chapter of
end? I hope it's not like
James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-founder of TheStreet.com. At time of publication, his fund was long Exodus Communications, although positions can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column at