With its shares skyrocketing some 43% just in the past month, AK Steel (AKS) - Get Report has been on fire, sparked by a Wednesday upgrade by analyst at Credit Suisse to outperform from underperform and slapped the stock with a $7 price target. 

Credit Suisse seems late to the cycle. Since its upgrade last week shares are down more than 7%. AKS closed Friday at $4.96, down 1.8%. Even with the recent 7% pullback, the shares are still up more than 121% year to date, demolishing the 2.55% rise in the S&P 500 (SPX) index. 

What should you do? Sell and take your profits elsewhere.

AK Steel is projected to earn just 8 cents for this fiscal year, which ends in December. The stock is priced at 62 times forward earnings, or almost four times the S&P 500 index. This means the stock is incredibly risky. This risk falls in line with what  Jim Cramer, said a week ago in reference to AK Steel and commodities: when commodities go down, they send "everything down in lockstep.

With AKS trading beyond its fundamental metrics, its technical metrics suggests a peak has already been reached and a 14% to 17% decline could be imminent. See the chart, courtesy of TradingView.

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Since reaching its January low of $1.64, AKS stock has skyrocketed to its recent 52-week high of $5.50, amounting to gains of about 235%. But the industry's track record can't be trusted. The "V" shape created by the two smaller black arrows, a quick rise can follow a brutal. The stock couldn't break resistance at $5.35 in April and it couldn't do it again last week. Call this a line in the sand. It is met with heavy selling pressure each time it reaches that area. This time won't be different.

The chart shows support is at $4.27 (top solid blue line) or about 14% below current levels, which is where the stock's 50-day average of $4.30 (pink line) meets. A sharp move towards the 20-day average to $4.12 (blue line), marking a 17% decline will likely lead to a bigger drop to around $3.40, producing another "V" pattern before AKS stock can move back higher.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.