Get a life!!!
Guidance is what matters. Guidance. As in, what will happen? We don't care about what happened. That has been booked. It's known. We care about what will happen. Intel and Motorola both have credibility when it comes to guidance.
You can question whether Intel is right about its guidance, as
did this morning. But those of us who are glued to Intel's side know that Intel is either positive or negative, and when it is positive, things tend to go right in the future
and you have to be long
. When they are negative or cautious, you have to sell. In this case, Intel has been marking time since January. Many of us took this positive comment as a signal that Intel is saying, "The marking time period might be ending."
Buttressing that is the ruination of all INTC competition in the previous three quarters. Job well done.
Motorola, on the other hand, has hardly been marking time. It has been skyrocketing right up to the earnings. In this case, we needed to hear that the run-up was justified and prudent. The way we could tell it was justified and prudent would be if MOT told us to
. It didn't. In fact, it took pains not to do so.
That's not enough. That's why I sold some of my MOT this morning. Now I am trying to figure out what to do with the rest. As I said to my partner, Jeff, this morning, MOT's best story was in handsets, and I would rather play that with
, which I am long. To me, the continually unbitten
bullet -- MOT takes in huge fees from Iridium -- makes the story dead money.
I sell dead money in this tape.
may have a tough quarter ahead. Dorfman just "reported" that a hedge fund long Centocor thinks it will get a bid (quite different, by the way, from my saying "I am long MOT and wrong" on TV, for the record). Whom do you trust? Could they both be right?
Truth Serum-wise, might the hedge fund be using Dorfman to blow out of CNTO because a bad quarter awaits? (Gee, would that be the first time?) Like
, I have
no position. I am just reporting what I am reading.
James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-founder of TheStreet.com. At time of publication, his fund was long Intel, Motorola and Nokia. His fund often buys and sells securities that are the subject of his columns, both before and after the columns are published, and the positions that his fund takes may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column at