A Cramer Fan's Notes

Not only does Padinha never miss a Cramer column, he even finds them useful from time to time.

Author:: James Padinha
Publish date:: Apr 9, 1999 3:15 PM EDT

The Milky Way

JACKSON HOLE, Wyo. -- Silly

Cramer

Hate that

column? Not a chance. The truth is that I cherish every single one of them.

And I will prove it by respectfully submitting the

Top 10 Reasons I Never Miss a Cramer Column

10.

Useful tips on how to beat small children at

Monopoly

My 6-year old nephew

Nicholas

has an IQ twice as big as mine (his is 168) and used to beat me all the time. I now regularly crush the little brainiac like a bug. Punishment for losing? No

Coke

for a week.

Military history much more applicable now than it was in high school.

The

Holland Tunnel Diner

is everywhere you want to be.

Reading about personal trainer next best thing to having one.

"Hoo-hah!!!!!!" always hits like sunshine on a cloudy day.

Harvard

!!!!!! Beat

Yale

!!!!!!

Bad

Japan

calls rare.

No stupid polls.

Unwavering emphasis on homework.

Witness:

A whole other group of longs would rather just take profits than be in to do the homework.

I don't know, I can't quit on what's worked for me for 20 years: homework. I like it. Call me a nerd.

When Holly's plunging in to PeopleSoft and WFMI and Howard's moving in on the young Internet communication companies, I'm taking some money off the table so I can buy them when Holly comes to her senses and Howard does more homework than reading a "strong buy" recommendation.

Homework -- rationality and history -- has made me far more money over the years than it has cost me. I can't decide to throw away the homework because it failed me Feb. 9, 1999.

It is the homework, the blocking and tackling, that has to be done right to stay on top of the game.

Soon, it will matter; soon people will have to do some homework before they buy.

Caution: The words "homework" and "pair" should never be used in the same sentence.

Enough said.

And the No. 1 Reason I Never Miss a Cramer Column:

At some point something useful is bound to appear in an

anti-Padinha

piece.

And it happened today. And I am quite serious about this one.

I am fundamentally bearish on bonds (meaning I think the next move in the fed funds rate, whenever it comes, will be up) and fundamentally bullish on the economy (meaning I think growth will prove stronger during the third and fourth quarters, on average, than it will during the first and the second quarters).

Does that mean I rule out lower yields over shorter periods of time? No more than someone bullish on shares rules out dips here and there. Does it mean I rule out relatively weak data over shorter periods of time? Nope.

Matter of fact, it wouldn't surprise me at all if over the next nine weeks or so (a) the curve flattened and (b) bond yields fell. Why? Two reasons.

One, two of the best bond guys I know think it's a good bet. And seeing as they're much brighter than I am, and especially seeing as how they do all kinds of fancy work while I lie around and watch

Saved by the Bell

(specialization at its best), I always listen to them.

Two, the

consumption

math sure looks like it will play out such that growth will decelerate between the first quarter and the second. Spending finished the first quarter just like it began it: With a bang. So, given that the March level of consumption sits so high, it would take some kind of Herculean effort on the part of Americans to spend enough in April to give the second-quarter consumption number a shot at rivaling the first.

Only an idiot market participant would refuse to allow for short-term developments that worked against his or her longer-term view.

And I may relate better to college kids than I do to grown-ups, but I ain't no idiot.