Tech stocks have certainly gotten a lot cheaper over the last two months -- and that includes some names that were seen as bulletproof going into October.
Here's a look at some tech names that are now trading at much lower multiples than they did going into the fall.
1. Apple (AAPL)
Decline Since Oct. 1: 22%
Valuation as of Oct. 1: Apple traded for 16.7 times a fiscal 2019 (ends in Oct. 2019) EPS consensus of $13.59.
Current Valuation: Apple trades for 13.2 times a fiscal 2019 EPS consensus of $13.42.
Contributing to its Selloff: Though beating September quarter estimates, Apple issued a December quarter sales outlook that was mostly below consensus, and announced that it plans to stop breaking out iPhone, iPad and Mac unit sales. Since then, warnings from chip/component suppliers and reports of production cuts have heightened worries about weaker-than-expected iPhone demand -- particularly for the iPhone XR.
What's Still Going Well: Apple's Services and wearables (Apple Watch/headphone) revenue streams are both growing at strong double-digit clips, and the installed bases for its core hardware franchises are still seeing healthy growth. In addition, compared with the XR, iPhone XS sales appear to be holding up relatively well. That's a positive for Apple's iPhone average selling price (ASP), which already grew strongly in fiscal 2018.
2. Nvidia (NVDA)
Decline Since Oct. 1: 49%
Valuation as of Oct. 1: Nvidia traded for 36 times a fiscal 2020 (ends in Jan. 2020) EPS consensus of $8.01.
Current Valuation: Nvidia trades for 22 times a fiscal 2020 EPS consensus of $6.74.
Contributing to its Selloff: Nvidia plunged last week after missing October quarter estimates and (more importantly) issuing weak January quarter sales guidance it attributed to a channel inventory buildup for mid-range GPUs. It has added to its losses this week. And even before issuing its guidance, Nvidia had fallen sharply amid concerns about the expected sales ramp for its recently-launched Turing gaming GPUs, as well as broader cyclical worries about the chip industry.
What's Still Going Well: Nvidia claimed on its earnings call that its Turing ramp is going well, and it's still seeing strong growth from its Datacenter segment, thanks to the popularity of GPUs for handling a variety of AI/machine learning and high-performance computing (HPC) workloads. The company's workstation GPU business is also set to benefit from the recent launch of Turing-based products, and its Automotive segment has engagements with a number of Tier-1 automakers regarding autonomous driving solutions.
3. Netflix (NFLX)
Decline Since Oct. 1: 30%
Valuation as of Oct. 1: Netflix was worth $166 billion, or $979 for each streaming subscriber it was expected to have at the end of 2019, based on a consensus subscriber estimate of 169.5 million.
Current Valuation: Netflix is worth $116 billion, or $670 for each streaming of the 173.2 million streaming subs it's expected to have at the end of 2019.
Contributing to its Selloff: Worries about rising interest rates have weighed on Netflix, which is relying on debt to help finance its massive content spending spree. In addition, there may be some concerns about the fact that the company expects its 2019 cash burn to be similar to 2018's cash burn, which is expected to be around $3 billion.
What's Still Going Well: Netflix soundly beat its Q3 subscriber add guidance in October, and also issued a strong Q4 subscriber add outlook. The company still has a lot of headroom to grow its penetration rates in many of its large international markets, and -- with rivals having done little to slow its subscriber growth to date -- has arguably only begun to flex its pricing power.
Also, even after its recent $2 billion debt offering, Netflix's debt load is still only at $7.2 billion -- a moderate sum relative to the company's market cap and revenue base.
4. Activision Blizzard (ATVI)
Decline Since Oct. 1: 41%
Valuation as of Oct 1: Activision traded for 27 times a 2019 EPS consensus of $3.04.
Current Valuation: Activision trades for 17 times a 2019 EPS consensus of $2.82.
Contributing to its Selloff: While Activision beat Q3 EPS estimates and reported roughly in-line revenue, it offered a below-consensus Q4 outlook that has raised concerns about the performance of the recently-launched Destiny 2: Forsaken. In addition, the company's Blizzard unit reported an annual drop in monthly active users. The fact that rival Electronic Arts (EA) has also shared disappointing guidance might also be weighing on Activision.
What's Still Going Well: Activision still claims a long list of highly valuable gaming franchises, from Destiny and Call of Duty to World of Warcraft and Candy Crush Saga. Rising global gaming activity/spending is still a long-term tailwind, as is Activision's steadily-improving ability to monetize such activity via revenue streams such as subscriptions, in-game purchases and eSports leagues.
5. Amazon.com (AMZN)
Decline Since Oct. 1: 25%
Valuation as of Oct. 1: Amazon, admittedly a tough company to value due to its willingness to sacrifice near-term profits in the name of long-term growth, traded for 25.6 times a 2020 free cash flow (FCF) consensus of $37.9 billion.
Current Valuation: Amazon trades for 19.4 times a 2020 FCF consensus of $37.5 billion.
Contributing to its Selloff: While Amazon beat Q3 EPS estimates, it missed revenue estimates, largely due to slower-than-expected International segment growth. And the company's sales guidance for the seasonally big fourth quarter was below consensus.What's Still Going Well: One paragraph probably doesn't do this justice. Amazon's North American segment is performing well, taking share in an e-commerce market that itself is steadily taking share from physical retail. There's still plenty of room for international e-commerce expansion. Amazon Web Services (AWS) remains a juggernaut, and Amazon's ongoing mix shift towards services revenue streams (AWS, seller services, subscriptions, etc.) continues driving margin expansion.