The following commentary comes from an independent investor or market observer as part of TheStreet's guest contributor program, which is separate from the company's news coverage.
NEW YORK (
) -- You didn't really thing that stock assets in the epicenter of world economic growth would underachieve for too much longer. Did you? Since the Libya rebellion began roiling markets 10 trading days ago,
SPDR S&P China
has returned 0.2%; the
S&P 500 SPDR Trust
has lost roughly 2.5%.
It's not that the U.S. market hasn't held up remarkably well in the face of rising oil prices. It's the fact that China has three "huge positives" that the U.S. sorely lacks.
Here, then, are 3 reasons why you should expect China stocks to resume their long-term bull market uptrend:
No. 1. 5-Year Economic Plan.
U.S. leaders can't even agree on a budget, let alone curb inflation or come up with an energy independence plan. In contrast, China's fiscal and monetary authorities have been
reining in inflation successfully
. Meanwhile, during his speech at the National People's Congress in Beijing, Premier Wen Jiabao announced increases in government spending for the expansion of domestic consumption.
Granted, China's been talking about shifting from an export machine to a consumer-based economy for years with mixed results. Yet dismissing one of the world's most dynamic examples of capitalism today would be foolhardy. The Chinese government has the dollars to spend on infrastructure, tech as well as farm subsidies; the U.S. does not have dollars to spend, other than those which it prints electronically.
No. 2. China's Untapped Domestic Market
. If a foreign individual or entity wishes to invest in U.S. companies, it can. The U.S. government doesn't restrict access. However, 70% of China's public corporations are local "A Shares" and Chinese government restrictions have made them inaccessible to most foreign investors.
Recently, Van Eck's
Market Vectors China
became the first U.S. ETF to offer a way to invest in local Chinese A-shares. PEK is not able to invest directly in China's A shares, but PEK invests in a variety of derivative instruments to gain performance exposure.
While Van Eck's Market Vectors China may not be right for everyone, the fund has risen 3.6% over the last 10 trading days. It's also climbed above a 50-day MA while setting a series of higher lows.
The activity suggests that government intentions to invest in consumption-oriented industries from consumer discretionary to agriculture to auto have boosted confidence in domestic China, more so than export-dependent transports or interest-rate sensitive financials in SPDR S&P China.
No. 3. Job Creation
. A majority of analysts seem to believe that the U.S. has turned a corner in transitioning to a
. Yet vibrant job growth hasn't just lagged economic growth, it's been tepid. Even the notion that the country only has 9% unemployment is a gross miscarriage of statistical gobbledygook, as wannabe workers have quit looking, gone part-time/temp or fell off the 99-week roll.
China's urban unemployment rate is near 4%. In the first three quarters of 2010, China created 9.3 million new jobs, more than it targeted for the entire year. A
discovered that Chinese employers were more optimistic about the labor market at any point since the survey's inception in 2005, with 53% expecting an increase in staffing and only 2% expecting a decrease. It should be noted that Manpower surveys 36 countries, and none had a more optimistic outlook for employment than China.
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