Whole New Ballgame With Blowout Win for Biden

Mish

Joe Biden had a massive win over Bernie Sanders in South Carolina. That makes it a new ballgame.

Joe Biden was expected to do well in South Carolina but nowhere near this well. With 85% of the votes counted Biden has almost 50% of the vote with sanders near 20%.

Tom Steyer dropped out. Bloomberg should too.

Let's tune into 538 Live Updates for comments.

NATHANIEL RAKICH 9:41 PM: My final takeaway is that this could wind up as an inflection point in the primary calendar. The timing could not have been better for Biden. With Super Tuesday’s massive delegate haul in three days, it would be huge for Biden if there’s a media narrative that he has emerged as the strongest establishment candidate to take on Sanders. You’ve already seen some party elders endorse him tonight. Furthermore, his huge and unexpected margin of victory (it could be 30 points!) bodes very well for him in other Southern states that vote on Super Tuesday.

GEOFFREY SKELLEY 9:38 PM: Biden got the big win he needed, outperforming his polls by quite a bit. And he may have turned this into a two-person race against Sanders, though we’ll see how true that really is on Super Tuesday. It’ll be a very different race that day with so many states voting — including huge states like California and Texas — so we should be careful to not overstate the impact of this South Carolina result. But at this point in the campaign, Biden’s result in the Palmetto State is basically his best-case outcome.

PERRY BACON JR. 9:36 PM: What a huge, massive victory for Biden. It was comparable to the blowouts in South Carolina for Obama in 2008 and Clinton in 2016. It shows how differently black voters are viewing this primary than white ones. I think you will start seeing a real push for non-Biden moderate candidates to get out of the race as well as Biden receiving a lot of endorsements. I think this is a really big night — the Democratic Party might truly mobilize behind Biden and try to push him past Sanders.

NATHANIEL RAKICH 9:35 PM: With his huge margin in South Carolina, Biden has now taken the lead in the nationwide popular vote in the primaries and caucuses so far, according to ABC News’s tally. He has 240,302 votes (26 percent) to Sanders’s 229,461 (25 percent).

PERRY BACON JR. 9:25 PM: I was looking at the returns from some majority-black, rural counties and it looks like Biden really cleaned up in those: Allendale (58 percent of the vote), Hampton (53 percent), Lee (70), Marion (65), Marlboro (62) and Williamsburg (70). That fits with the broader story of tonight (Biden winning the black vote overwhelmingly). The South has some rural black areas where I suspect Biden will be very, very strong.

GEOFFREY SKELLEY 9:24 PM: My back-of-the-envelope delegate math suggests that Biden could get more than 40 of the state’s 54 pledged delegates.

State of the Democratic Race

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A week ago Sanders was trading at 67 cents and not too long ago Bloomberg was doing better than Biden.

Sanders is way too high in my estimation.

The odds of a contested convention rose tonight. We will know much more on Super Tuesday, March 3. But I suspect this will give a big boost to Biden in Texas.

Florida Primary

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As it stands now, Sanders would get few if any Florida delegates. But the big problem is for everyone but Sanders is California.

California Primary

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​If those results held, only Sanders and Warren would win delegates in California.

However, I expect Biden will get a boost in Texas, California, and the other Super Tuesday states after this blowout win.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (50)
No. 1-18
Jojo
Jojo

Ha ha ha. So much crowing from the ABB (Anybody But Bernie) crowd! Don't count your chickens before they hatch. Let's see what Super Tuesday brings.

abend237-04
abend237-04

Well, all Joe has to do now is convince 340 billion of us that he isn't daft. I keep getting this image of a five year old in a crowded room with a verbal assault rifle...with the safety off.

Stuki
Stuki

Wow! That was surprisingly big!

Now Bloomberg will be accused of "stealing" the nomination from Biden, if Sanders wins.....

Even in Sanders heavy Cali, and more so in more moderate states in the rest of the country, this will help increase black turnout. Certainly not the outcome Trump was hoping for.

ksdude69
ksdude69

Oh joy, the idiot that claims 150 million Americans have died from gun violence.

Jojo
Jojo

Biden is the great white hope for SC's black folk?

Greggg
Greggg

Wait till Biden wakes up on November 4th and finds out he won the Senate vote in South Carolina.

Helene84
Helene84

Biden will be crushed on Tuesday. He is clearly sundowning and his family corruption has caught up with him. He has no political operation beyond SC, no ground game whatsoever and almost no cash on hand.

Bernie is not even a democratic socialist, he's really just a standard FDR democrat. None of his proposals are particularly radical and so far the majority of Democrat voters in every state have polled in favor of Medicare for All.

Sechel
Sechel

This is what Biden needed to do. I doubt Bloomberg will bow out. He entered for Super Tuesday. As good as the win is bBiden still has some real problems .He lacks organization and funds. Bernie really isn't doing any better than he did back in 2016. It just looks better because he has more opponents who are splitting the remaining vote.

If this goes to the convention. Superdelegates will go Biden. Bernie can scream and yell but Democrats will not only lose the Presiency but the House and additional Senate seats if Bernie heads the ticket. Superdelegates serve a purpos which is to be the adult in the room.

Seems a bunch of kids(almost) are Behind Bernie because he's promised them a bunch of free things he can't deliver on.

Oh Steyer is out now.

sangell
sangell

Worth noting that both Biden and Sanders, should they be elected, would be OLDER than Ronald Reagan when he LEFT the White House.
Sanders will be 79 in September and Biden 78 in November. Biden clearly is becoming senile and Sanders had a heart attack this year

The Democrats won't be electing a president so much as picking a vice president in Milwaukee. OTOH Trump will be 4 years younger than either Biden or Sanders are today at the end of his putative 2nd term!

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

The only question is how big the blue wave from 2018 will be in 2020. Trump is in real trouble if there is a global recession.

MiTurn
MiTurn

In the mail box Saturday we got three different campaign flyers from the Mike Bloomberg campaign, for a total of five pieces since the beginning of the week. Each flyer was different and each explained how Mike was the man to vote for.

bayleaf
bayleaf

The only question is whether the super delegates will steal the nomination from Bernie and give it to Biden. The rest have very little chance.

Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear

Lizzy needs to drop out. She can't even win a totem poll.

Bam_Man
Bam_Man

Looks like Bloomberg will have to add Biden (and the DNC) to his list of "People who have annoyed me and f**ed me over during the past 74 years".

Trump will have a field day running against Biden, if this demented, delusional grifter actually gets the nomination.

Quatloo
Quatloo

Buttigieg dropping out will definitely help Biden. I wonder if Biden promised him a VP slot if he dropped out.

Sechel
Sechel

Buttigeg is out. Surprised he pulled out before Super Tuesday. Bloomberg and Biden benefit. Assume Warren will be next to suspend

RonJ
RonJ

California has early voting. Just think of all the people who voted before the South Carolina primary.


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