Who is Really Ahead in the Iowa Caucus?
Are Monmouth and Suffolk correct or are Iowa State University, Emerson, and Siena?
Curiously, that is not even the right question.
It may not matter.
Iowa Caucus Rules
The reason it matter is because of Iowa Caucus Rules.
- The Iowa caucuses have multiple rounds.
- Voters opting for a candidate who gets 15% of the vote in the first round or more are locked in.
- The rest are free to change their minds.
Warren and Buttigieg Wildcards
What happens in Iowa will largely depend on what Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg do.
If Warren tops 15% in most or all of those districts, that will roughly be her percent of the delegates.
The same applied to Buttigieg.
Four What Ifs?
- What if Warren tops 15% but Buttigieg doesn't?
- What if Buttigieg tops 15% but Warren doesn't?
- What if neither tops 15%?
- What if both do?
Those questions are crucial, yet I have not seen any analysis of them.
Crucial Questions Answered
1: Votes for Buttigieg are more likely to go for Biden than the others.
2: Votes for Warren are highly likely to go to Bernie.
3: I suspect Bernie is the winner but it is harder to say.
4: I suspect Biden will pick up more of those for voting for Klobuchar, Yang, Steyer, etc.
It's even a bit more complicated than that.
Warren might not get 15% nationally yet get 15% in most of the districts. Only in those districts where she fails to get 15% will those initial votes get recast.
The same applies to Buttigieg.
What Warren and Buttigieg do greatly matters.
Bernie can easily win the first round, yet Biden can come away with more delegates.
Who's the winner? Both or the one with more delegates?
Who's in the Lead Now?
The media is universally discussing Bernie's lead.
Does Bernie even have a lead?
Curiously, those rooting for Biden should want Warren to exceed 15% in every district.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock