What are Trump's and Biden's Polling Strong Points?

Mish

Biden leads Trump in the polls, but not in every category.

Quinnipiac University Poll

I created the above spreadsheets from a Quinnipiac University Poll released September 2. 

On the heels of back-to-back political party conventions and a climate of growing unrest in the country, likely voters support former Vice President Joe Biden over President Donald Trump 52 - 42 percent in a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll released today. This is the first survey of likely voters in the 2020 presidential election race by the Quinnipiac University Poll, and cannot be compared to results of earlier surveys of registered voters. 

The college education category is explicitly white-only.

By Political Party

Democrats go to Biden 93 - 6 percent, Republicans go to Trump 90 - 8 percent, and independents back Biden 50 - 40 percent.

Trump's Strong Points

  1. Whites in general but especially those with no 4-year college degree
  2. Those aged 50-64 late in their working careers but not yet retired. 

Biden's Strong Points

  1. Women
  2. College educated
  3. Blacks
  4. Hispanics
  5. Age groups 18-34, 35-49, and 65+

By sex, males are essentially a toss-up. 

Add it up and Trump appeals to non-college education blue-class, white workers nearing retirement but not yet retired.

Biden appeals to everyone else.

Undecideds

Undecideds total at most 4%.

Trump needs to make up ground, and he has, by a bit, but further gains will be a struggle given most minds are made up.

Three Caveats

  1. This is a national poll. The election will be determined in the battleground states.
  2. There is still time for a Trump surge or a Biden blunder but time is more on Biden's side now.
  3. One has to believe the poll. Quinnipiac University is rated B+ by FiveThirtyEight.

For further discussion, please see Election Update: Is Trump Closing the Gap?

Mish

Comments (78)
No. 1-16
Tengen
Tengen

It probably comes down to how many people are annoyed enough to get out and vote against the candidate they despise. Neither guy seems to have a discernible platform other than being the chosen opponent of the other team.

I have no idea how it's going to turn out and since these aren't "normal" times anymore, two months is an eternity for new outrage and scandal to push to the forefront. I read today that Trump's November vaccine push is extremely unlikely to come to fruition, which likely saves him from a major self-inflicted wound.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

The election may be determined in the courts from Trump's mumbling statement today that they already has cases queued up to challenge mail in ballots. I think we may also see some fake ballots sent itn by Russia courtesy of the Trump campaign to show people that mail in balloting could be rigged. Barr seems to be going along with the idea of doing whatever is necessary legally for the Justice Department to help Trump win. So I will modify my prediction now. In a free and fair election Biden would win going away. But since Trump has the levers of power it will go to the courts and it is a tossup irrespective of what the votes say. In short Trump will try to steal the election any way possible.

Zardoz
Zardoz

trump is rocking the old, white, and stupid demographic

Augustthegreat
Augustthegreat

tRump will find all possible ways to stay in the white-house, regardless of actual voting results. The world to watch a spectacular circus show!

Felix_Mish
Felix_Mish

Here is an app that could be created by Google, Facebook, Microsoft, Amazon, or any number of outfits who track browser activity, including OS's and browsers, themselves.

AutoVote.

Just think: Will your vote change anything? Of course not. So, is it worth it to go through any trouble to vote? Of course not. At best, it's an exercise in amusement and back-patting self-image.

But, what if voting was very cheap and easy? Really easy. Really cheap. Automatic. What if your vote was completely automated?

And what if your vote was, in fact, a better, more informed vote - as you see it - than what you could do yourself?

Products made by sophisticated, modern machines are superior to hand made. In the same way, an automated vote would better reflect your own preferences than a vote you make yourself!

Think about it: How accurate is your vote for local judges. Or even state representatives. Who are these guys? And how good is the guess you make from reading a voting pamphlet blurb?

An app can do better. Given your browser history, an app would make truly informed votes for you - as you would vote if you spent days or even weeks examining the issues and candidates. This whole voting process could be automated. You'd not even need to know there was an election! Wouldn't that be nice?


MishTalk commenters: What do you all think? Is that a great idea, or what?

Jojo
Jojo

I love Matt Taibbi!

The Trump Era Sucks and Needs to Be Over
The race is tightening. Is America sure it's ready to give up its addiction to crazy?
Matt Taibbi
August 3, 2020

Sechel
Sechel

Seems deep down there's an appeal to white working class males who fear being bypassed in today's society and somehow view Trump as returning them to a world where they think they mattered more. It's a false view of the world and not attainable by voting for him. They get upset when the nba cancels their sporting events due to a BLM protest and can't accept their is in invisible virus coming after them. They think their paychecks would be bigger if we didn't have to share the world with China or Mexico

AussiePete
AussiePete

Jim Rickards, who predicted a Trump victory last time, has Trump favorite to win again. He says that when you adjust for polls's skewed sample (oversampling Democrats and polling "all adults" instead of "likely voters") and differences between respondent intentions and expectations, he has Trump slight favourite. He points out that Trump is actually polling better today than he was at this stage of the race in 2016, and momentum is moving in his favor. "Expectations" currently favor Trump 55% to 45%, and he claims that expectations have three times the predictive power than personal voting intentions.

Another important model that predicts a Trump victory is ‘The Keys to the White House’ invented by Professor Allan Lichtman of American University. It consists of 13 factors (called ‘keys’) which can be applied to the party in power to yield binary true or false answers. If the party in power gets at least eight true answers, they win the election. If the party in power gets seven or fewer true answers, they lose the election. By Rickards estimation, Trump get nine out of thirteen. The model has "almost" never been wrong.

Rickards also has as a strong possibility that Biden will be replaced before the election due to Biden suffering from acute cognitive decline, based on his "vacant stare, confused demeanour, and his inability to form sentences, complete thoughts, or to stay on topic."

Realist
Realist

As a realist, I look at the world that is, not the world I want, or the world someone else wants.

One problem with politics, and aligning yourself with a political party, is that it affects your view of the world, clouding your common sense, and leaving you open to believing whatever that party or politician tells you. This is why I am apolitical. It allows me to look at reality, see the world as it is, and react appropriately.

Casual Observer wonders who the undecided voters are? I suspect they are simply those who avoid politics, and can’t be bothered to state an opinion yet. If I was American, I would be one of the independent voters. However, I would not be undecided. It is crystal clear to me that Trump is the worst President in US history and should be voted out.

Being a realist though, I understand that it is entirely possible that Trump can still win. It is also possible he loses a tight race and takes it to the courts (which he is working hard to set up in advance). Even if he loses, and eventually leaves the White House, he will not simply ”go away”. His strategy of ”hate and division” will continue from every platform he has access to.

The net result; whether Trump wins or loses, America will remain a very divided country, full of hate. Very sad.

jap
jap

Too much imagination on how Trump can steal election. He is a just a barking dog, doesn't bite.

TimeToTest
TimeToTest

Does a mouse know it’s about to eat the cheese off a trap?

If people stop for a second and understand Trump is not just some compulsive crazy but a man with a team of very very smart people advising and brainstorming his path forward, they would start to see the things he is doing are calculated.

The vote twice comments were a stroke of genius. How else to turn the left on mail in voting than to tell you party to vote twice. He slammed the brakes on that push with a quickness.

Trump has gotten more people engaged in the direction of our country than ever before. Right or wrong the true winners are the people that are looking harder at the government.

simb555
simb555

Polls are just guesses and the so called science behind them are bogus. For a good explanation "Radical Uncertainty" by John Kay and Mervyn King is a must read.

ajc1970
ajc1970

schools staying closed, riots every time police kill a suspect, 4 debates... a scotus demise could be the october surprise.

until the absentee ballots are mailed, this is a wide open race.

Carl_R
Carl_R

If people keep voting for "the Republican" or "the Democrat", those are the only two choices they will be have, and neither will be good. Only when voters consider Greens and Libertarians as candidates will this ugly 2-headed monster start listening to the people again.

Run4thehills
Run4thehills

Joe Biden's brain is cottage cheese, if he can avoid a debate he should be ok

Herkie
Herkie

Post convention seen this morning at The Daily Shot Editor:


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