We Will Know Who Won the Election Within a Day

Mish

Despite late counting, we are highly likely to know who won the election sooner rather than later.

Late Counting

I created my "Late Counting" map based on the New York Times article How Long Will Vote Counting Take? Estimates and Deadlines in All 50 States

Even though California allows counting until November 20, let's be honest. We know who won California already.

The same applies to Illinois, New York, and Utah. The latter will go to Trump.

Maximum Uncertainty

For the benefit of Trump, let's assume some states are tossups that really aren't. 

Let's also factor in states where late counting could matter.

Maximum Uncertainty Map 

Maximum Uncertainty

Biden is a 222 and Trump is at 125.

Likely to Quickly Know

  • AZ: 11
  • TX: 38
  • WI: 10
  • GA: 16
  • FL: 29
  • ME: 1
  • NE: 1
  • Total of Above: 106

Biden needs 270-222 = 48 of 106.

But we cannot stop there. 

  • NC expects 98% counting. Given the preponderance of mail-in voting will be Democratic, if Biden is ahead with 98% counting we will know Biden won that state. 
  • Ohio, Iowa, Michigan, and Minnesota are similar. If Biden is ahead with just mail-in votes to count, we will know who won.

What Does "Know" Mean?

The results will not be official until states officially post results and that will be after all the counting.

But let's be honest, we will realistically know who won if Biden is ahead with only mail-in votes to count in such setups.

In addition, we will reach a mathematical certainty far before the official period based on outstanding ballots.

Trump's hope of the Supreme Court deciding the election hinges on Trump winning nearly all of the "Maximum Uncertainty" states plus Pennsylvania (outright or on a Supreme Court decision). 

There will be delays in official counts, but count on knowing who won much sooner.

Mish

Comments (30)
No. 1-12
Eddie_T
Eddie_T

Reassuring..thanks for this.

PecuniaNonOlet
PecuniaNonOlet

Good work Mish, very appreciated that you do all this detailed analysis. I think you are correct, we will know that night or next day.

AshH
AshH

Think you should add NV to your list of toss-ups if MN is a toss-up. Biden is polling better and the betting odds are higher in MN compared to NV.

ionicmantoms
ionicmantoms

By November 5th, every Republican politician will be rewriting history by claiming a long-standing disassociation with Trump.

Frank10
Frank10

" ... based on the New York Times article" - sorry Mish, that phrase says it all. There hasn't been a sentence, let alone article, in that publication in the last how may years whose sole purpose wasn't to promote the so called progressivism and discredit or disinform anyone who thinks otherwise. The independent fact finding journalism has died and been buried there long time ago.

Herkie
Herkie

I say by midnight eastern time we will know.

I say this because Florida has different rules from some other states that allow them to open and tabulate votes as they come in and Florida already has over 50% of all eleigible voters having voted as of tonight. They can't disclose those tabulations till polls close on election day, but come Tuesday Florida will be called fairly early, for a change. If it is called for Biden as the winner the election is over, there is no path to 270 electoral votes for Trump without Florida's 29 electoral votes.

Even if Trump does manage to get Florida he has a very narrow path to 270.

He will not flip any state that went for Cinton in '16, we all know this, every state Clinton won in 2016 is now going to Biden by a lot. As I pointed out this morning with huge margins. That means he has to get 270 EC votes out of the states he got 304 last time. He cannot improve on that 304 and he can only afford to lose 34.

He will lose one or more in Maine. Fact. He will lose 1 in Nebraska, fact, brings Biden to 32 he has to get. And every pollster out there except biased Rasmussen says PA, WI, and MI will go Biden by numbers far outside their margins of error.

The total of WI, MI, and PA is 46. Polls say Trump will get none of those. Biden wins. But Biden can take PA and trump loses. Or, Biden can take WI and MI and Trump loses.

The incredible thing we should talk about is Biden winning in states like Arizona. He is solidly ahead and will likely win there. Trump cannot lose states he won in 16. Biden is ahead in the big three outside the margin of polling error. He will get WI, MI, and PA. Now add in AZ, and the wall Trump has to climbis impossible. He would have to flip states like WA or OR. Where he trails by 30+ points. He cannot make up for those three states, and there are more than half a dozen states he took in 16 that are polling either equal or in favor of Biden at this point. GA, TX, NC, IA, AZ, FL, so it could be close from a pure math analysis but it can now also be a wipeout for the GOP. It is almost certain that dems control the senate after the election. So I think it does not matter if Trump cheats his way into another term. The congress will be in dem hands and Trump even if he remains in power for a while will be a lame duck.

Dodge Demon
Dodge Demon

We've known who lost about a generation or two ago.

JayLeap
JayLeap

If Fla, NC & AZ go to Trump or are close, we probably won't know for a few days minimum.

Tucsonman
Tucsonman

I’ve said this here before. Don’t assume Biden wins AZ. I’m seeing lots of Mexican American Trump supporters. Many who I know personally that loathed him 4 years ago. I was shocked to learn on Saturday that my wife’s tia said she’s supporting Trump along with her husband who is Native American. They absolutely couldn’t stand him a few years back. Strange times indeed.

Rogue_One
Rogue_One

Wow Mish ... this looks like a lot of work , analysis. Well done.

it will be interesting to see how close your work is to the results.

Here we go !

amigator
amigator

Good stuff and with polls closing in the east at 7:00 we may even know before the other polls close 102 votes will be taken. Trump better have most of those if he expects to win!

AshH
AshH

Finally ready for my election prediction: Biden 309 - Trump 229

Of the swing states, I think Biden will take MN, NV, NE2, MI, WI, PA, ME2, and yes FL.
I think Trump will take TX, OH, IA, GA, NC, and AZ.

I think I could potentially be wrong on FL, ME2, AZ, NC, GA, or IA, putting Biden in a likely range of 279 to 357.


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