Universal Realization That Trump Lost the Election

Mish

Publicly, president says he will ‘never concede.’ Privately, he is focused on his political future as Biden transition moves forward.

What's Trump's next act? This Act is Over. 

In a fatal blow to Trump, Pennsylvania, Nevada Certify Biden Election Win. 

  1. Secretary of the Commonwealth Kathy Boockvar certified Biden’s 80,555-vote victory in Pennsylvania, which was announced in tweet by Democratic Governor Tom Wolf.
  2. Nevada’s Supreme Court also certified the state’s results on Tuesday and Democratic Governor Steve Sisolak will issue a proclamation declaring the winner of the state’s six Electoral College votes.
  3. Trump’s lawyer Rudy Giuliani has said the case should be decided by the U.S. Supreme Court, which has a 6-3 conservative majority. Trump has said his goal is to “decertify” the state’s results one way or another.

"Universal" Realization It's Over

The Wall Street Journal reports After Setbacks, Trump Looks Beyond Legal Fight

Privately, even the few advisers to the president who had argued he still had a shot over the last week now largely concede he has no path to victory, aides say. 

There is “universal realization” among White House staff, said another person close to the administration: “It’s over.”

Administration officials say, the president’s focus appears to have broadened. In private conversations, he has polled advisers on what he should do next, musing about how he can stay relevant in the media and in the Republican Party and how he can earn money.

He has repeatedly expressed interest in running for president again in 2024, which some advisers have urged him to do as a way to save face, telling him he can decide whether to follow through later.

While there are just a handful of people left urging the president to keep up the legal fight—among them, Mr. Giuliani—there are equally few people telling him to end it, administration officials and people close to the White House say.

Everybody’s trying to straddle the fence and avoid him flipping out,” said one official.

Meaning of "Universal" 

"Universal realization" were the words of the White House staff according to the Wall Street Journal. 

Some will question the statement. But that is much like the Flat Earth Society denying the world is round. 

There is always a group of deniers of nearly anything. 

Fact Check #1 

Fact Check #2

Getting to the Bottom of Things

What About the Supreme Court?

Some delusional fans still believe the Supreme Court will decide this. 

It won't. 

And as I suggested all along, the Supreme Court is unlikely to even hear most of these cases if any at all.

The Third Circuit did allow late arriving ballots to be counted. That can be appealed to the Supreme Court and, if the Court hears it, perhaps it would reverse the Third Circuit. 

But the Supreme Court might not step in on the basis that the controversy does not make a difference in the ultimate result. 

Denial of Writ of Certiorari 

What I describe above is called denial of writ of certiorari because the case is moot, that is, the Supreme Court will refuse to take the case because decision will make no difference in the outcome of the election.

Given that Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, and Nevada have all certified Biden as winner, it is increasingly likely none of these cases ever get heard by the Supreme Court. 

Mish

Comments (101)
No. 1-30
Mish
Mish

Editor

"You can delude yourself all you want, all you libbies know deep in your gut that your side stole this election, and your side has been doing it since at least JFK, 60 years ago. This time you got brazen and drunk with invincibility including the spy agencies and the media, but your crimes will be found out, you can't hide it forever, and when proof comes out, you will run like rats and start turning on each other for lighter jail sentences."

Best not to reply to idiots like that because when I delete the comment everything goes with it

Tengen
Tengen

I wish the Q types (like the first reply) would finally get into Missouri "show me" mode. They keep promising bombshells over the last three years, but then we wait, and wait, and wait...

It's amazing how much psychological punishment people are willing to endure for the benefit of an online LARP.

njbr
njbr

I'm still waiting for the lawyer on Kraken (tomorrow, it seems)....

Sidney Powell surfaced Tuesday night on Fox Business Network's Lou Dobbs show to claim she would file a 'massive document' with 'lots of exhibits' in Georgia Wednesday alleging fraud.

'The evidence is so overwhelming, it’s almost as though they were so blatant about it they expected us to catch it,' she told Dobbs.

She was described as a 'member of President Trump's legal team' which she is explicitly not. During the day she tweeted a demand that Trump fire his current advisers and hold a rally in every disputed state.

Anda
Anda

Not sure the reason to front-run any official declaration or legal challenge just to hypothetically shoe-in a bunch of socialist warmongers. Either way, you know full well that most who voted for Trump are convinced the dems are underhand wrt to election manipulation, and it would seem so to me. People on the right aren't bothered in replying to your political articles, as you know, presumably because they see them and many of the related comments of support here as a parody. You can cast a ballot for someone, say jojo, but to pull down (vote out) just one party consistently is effectively voting for those who will take power instead.

Realist
Realist

There is a reason I have followed this blog for many years. It is the only blog I follow regularly, and it is the only blog I ever comment on. It is because Mish is more interested in truth and reality, than in numbers of readers, or ad revenue. He has integrity.

He is neither Democrat or Republican. He will criticize both parties where appropriate. He tends to support Libertarians (though I don't hold that against him).

He appreciates both science and technology. That is very important to me.

But most important, is that he doesn't put up with misinformation, lies, and conspiracy theories. I have been shocked in the last several years of reading this blog at how many people believe in these ridiculous conspiracy theories. Even more shocking, is that in 2016 the US elected a President who thrives on misinformation, lies, and conspiracy theories. What an embarrassment for America.

Keep up the good work Mish. It is appreciated.

Tollsforthee2
Tollsforthee2

It is so weird to see people so invested in fictions and wild conspiracy theories about voter fraud. Keep up the good work, Mish!

Mish
Mish

Editor

Anyone Here able to Post?

Jackula
Jackula

Thanks Mish! Nice data driven site with interesting mostly non-partisan analysis of Economics, Politics, and major events! I read your posts daily when possible.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

One day everyone will know what some already do -- that the full truth about the Trump campaign's ties with Russia -- duped the country.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

When the pardons come, Trump will reveal more about his ties to Russia.

HenryV
HenryV

Universal ... except 75 million Americans don’t believe you Mitch. Powell files the Kraken today against Georgia, and she seems pretty confident. Either she is seriously deluded, or genuinely has something. I will go by whatever judgement is eventually given, but given she seems to be taking on the entire US government machine and swimming against the tide, I have serious doubts it will come to much. Either way, no one can deny her right to question the result WITH EVIDENCE and on behalf of YOU THE PEOPLE. In her own words lets see how the chips fall.

Sechel
Sechel

When you donate to Trump's fund to fight to over-turn the results

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

Russian President Vladimir Putin has wasted no time in seizing on US President Donald Trump's conspiracy theories about the 2020 election to boost Russia's strategic goals.

Sechel
Sechel

When you donate to the fund that fights to over-turn the election according to the latest filing 75% now goes to Trump's post-election PAC. It's a giant grift

Sechel
Sechel

You know its gone way past absurd when the lawyers start quoting from the Monty Python Spanish Inquisition sketch

Lance Manly
Lance Manly

Good line from an article this morning. The answer is "Yes, you threw away every opportunity to win against a weak opponent."

"I don’t get it,” the president said, venting confusion and frustration. “All these other Republicans, all over the country, they all win their races. And I’m the only guy that loses?”

Rocky Raccoon
Rocky Raccoon

When you have a selfish, ignorant base supporting a selfish, ignorant man whose campaign is heavily in debt, you have to continue scamming them out of their money as Trump is doing.

njbr
njbr

...Can any rough guide to winners and losers in the year of Covid-19 be drawn up at this stage? America and Britain are both bad losers: Trump and Johnson had been divisive and demagogic before the epidemic struck, but when it did strike it dramatically exposed the dysfunctional nature of their governments and their personal inability to deal with a real crisis. This sense of chronic breakdown is exacerbated in the US by Trump’s fraudulent claims to have won the presidential election, giving a toxic foretaste of a permanently divided and destabilised America.

For Britain the post-Covid-19 and post-Brexit future looks even bleaker than in the US. The latter is a superpower that can make gross mistakes in a way that Britain, as a smaller player, cannot afford to do.

Britain’s final exit from the EU was always going to be difficult, but coronavirus means that it is entering a particularly forbidding political landscape. Brexit in itself is not so peculiar: many nations have sought self-determination, propelled by dreams of getting back control, but Britain has traditionally relied on foreign alliances in war and peace. It has stood alone, notably against Napoleon and Hitler, only because its allies had been defeated and it had no other option.

Britain will try to re-glue its relationship with the US and Europe by becoming a doughty spear carrier for both in the deepening cold war against Russia and China. This explains Johnson’s £16bn increase in the defence budget over the next four years, despite the calamitous damage inflicted on the economy by the epidemic. Gestures like this and a bit of threat-inflation solidify alliances, but they are scarcely an original strategy: Tony Blair tried a similar approach with disastrous results by joining US military ventures in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Britain is facing one of the most serious crises in its history under the least serious leadership it has ever known. The Brexiteers turned out to be a bigger danger than Brexit. Every week brings fresh evidence of their blunders, shady dealings and blindness to the dangers of a deglobalising world in which Britain will be a small fish trying to navigate the political oceans.

numike
numike

Biden Didn't Steal The Election From Trump!
The US military and it's faithful corporate minions stole the election from the American people! https://lloydhart.substack.com/p/biden-didnt-steal-the-election-from

Eddie_T
Eddie_T

And yet this wing nut keeps moving all over, and campaigning for his candidates in whatever place he’s living, the ones can’t ever win unless the military and the corporations let them...by controlling the voting machines.

Why bother, you doofus? If the outcomes are all rigged, why have you been busy as a bee campaigning since 1988?

Guess what.....only eight states still have any machines that don’t mark some kind of paper ballot. For instance, the machines here print your choices and you can examine your paper ballot for accuracy yourself before it gets scanned....and the paper ballot remains as proof, ready to be hand-counted if necessary.

Anybody can say anything, can’t they?....and some greater fool will believe him if it suits the story they like.

Pick your election fantasy.

Rbm
Rbm

I feel if your defense in court is your show is “political theater” you should be required to disclose that to your viewing audience.

njbr
njbr

...In a national news release, the campaign for President Donald Trump (via Guiliana and Ellis) announced there would be legislative hearings in Michigan and other states across the country next week to examine the results of the 2020 election.

The problem: Michigan lawmakers say there are no election hearings next week....Representatives for state House and Senate leadership confirmed Wednesday there will not be any hearings on the election next week.

"We were trying to get (Giuliani) to appear in person to testify. We couldn’t logistically make it work. I’ve asked him to submit his written testimony, and we’ll review it," said Rep. Matt Hall, an Emmett Township Republican and chairman of the House Oversight Committee. ....

....Lawmakers in Arizona also appear to have been caught unawares by the Trump announcement, according to the Arizona Republic. “News to me,” Senate President Karen Fann, R-Prescott, told the Republic replied when asked about plans for a hearing....

....It appeared that a hearing may happen in Pennsylvania, as soon as Wednesday. Axios and others report Trump planned to go with Giuliani to the meeting; the hearing will not change the results of the election in the state, won by Biden. Although the White House press pool had planned to accompany Trump to Pennsylvania, pool reports Wednesday morning indicated the trip was cancelled...

Eddie_T
Eddie_T

"What's Trump's next act?”

It’s a question worth worrying about.....

His first order of business is to get paid a lot.....and that hasn’t been a problem for ex-presidents in modern times.....the Clinton Foundation being the obvious example of how ex-Presidents and their families can make serious bank in a variety of dubious ways.

He probably sees himself as the ongoing leader of his “base”.....the Neo-Know-Nothings, they should call themselves...I’m sure he can keep them riled. He isn’t a deep thinker, but he can be the mouthpiece who repeats the lies of guys like Steve Bannon.....

His TV show is the only way he really made money over the past several many years......the real estate empire is all leverage and smoke and mirrors....I’m sure he wants a media career of some kind....

He’s probably doing some version, at this moment, of wearing a sign that says “Will Pretend to Work On TV For Billions Of Dollars”.

The best thing that could happen is for some of his many crimes to be successfully prosecuted, so that he can no longer vie for office. Or a heart attack...but one has to have a heart for that to happen, his kind of Golem lives forever.

I’m thinking Pompeo will take over for Trump in the next election cycle...him or Cruz.....Pence.......one of those. I really doubt Trump could be elected again......but then I was fairly stunned at how well he did this time...in spite of having done nothing all that great for anybody but himself and his cronies......and lying (and being called out for it) every day of his tenure.

It looks like we have ongoing crazy conspiracy theories being believed by enough people to swing an election....as part of our future from now on. People simply lack the most rudimentary skills to be able to tell truth from pure bullshit. Welcome to Idiocracy in the 2020’s. We’re here.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

All the president’s debts: to whom Donald Trump owes money
Debts of more than $1bn are tied to the Covid-struck commercial real estate market

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https://www.ft.com/content/448c69a6-18f3-4fa0-a3ad-50e8ce553e1e

On paper, Mr Trump is not particularly levered: his net worth has been estimated at $2.5bn by Forbes. But the economy is still on a precarious footing, and if his debts come under strain, he could play hardball with his creditors, as he has in the past.
https://www.ft.com/tour.

The situation is made more pressing for the US president because his primary source of income in recent years — his work on television — “is drying up”, according to an investigation by The New York Times. Citing the president’s tax filings, the Times also said much of that income was invested in golf courses that are money losers. So while the president is asset-rich, it is unclear how much liquidity he has access to. The Trump Organization declined to comment.

The president’s creditors can be broken into five groups. 

  1. Trump owes $447m as part of his partnership with Vornado Realty Trust, on towers in New York and San Francisco
    Mr Trump owns 30 per cent of 1290 Avenue of the Americas in New York City and 555 California Street in San Francisco, giving him a pro-rata share of the $1.5bn debt on the two buildings, which comes due over the next two years. The debt is owed by the partnership, not Mr Trump himself, but changes to the value of the debt, or any default, would directly affect his equity value in the buildings. The loan on 1290 Avenue of the Americas was initially made by Deutsche Bank, UBS, Goldman Sachs and the state-owned Bank of China, but they sold it into the bond market in 2012, as a commercial mortgage-backed security. The mortgage on 555 California Street is held by US insurers Met Life and Pacific Life, the companies said. It expires next September, according to filings from Vornado.*

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    California Street is a 1.8m square foot office complex, and while the income from the property was down 5 per cent in the second quarter of this year, it is 99 per cent occupied, according to filings from Vornado. 1290 is a 2.1m sq ft office and retail tower in Midtown Manhattan; Vornado’s latest filings do not provide up-to-date occupancy figures for it. 

https://www.ft.com/tour.

The value of each building has probably taken a hit during the Covid-19 crisis. Office real estate prices have fallen 5 per cent and 13 per cent from a year ago in San Francisco and New York, respectively, according to Green Street, a real estate research group. 

  1. The bond market: $257m in loans taken against several of the most famous Trump properties have been packaged, along with a bunch of non-Trump loans, into commercial mortgage-backed securities 
    The banks that originated these mortgages sold them to a CMBS trust, bundling them with other loans and transforming them into tradable debt securities. A servicer is responsible for collecting payments from borrowers. Should borrowers fail to make a payment, a special servicer steps in to get the borrower paying again or foreclose. It is these debt collectors that could be crucial should Mr Trump’s properties fall into arrears. 

In total, there are four Trump properties, all in New York, split across six CMBS deals, according to data from Trepp. Most are office buildings and condominiums. The largest is a $100m loan on Trump Tower, at 725 Fifth Avenue, which accounts for just over 10 per cent of a 2012 deal packaged by Wells Fargo. 

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https://www.ft.com/content/448c69a6-18f3-4fa0-a3ad-50e8ce553e1e

Most of the Trump loans are small enough that they are not the driving force behind the CMBS’s performance. All the properties are up to date on their payments, according to data from Trepp. There has been little apparent impact on occupancy rates since the Covid-19 crisis began.
https://www.ft.com/tour.

However, one loan — the $6.5m mortgage on the Trump International Hotel at 1 Central Park West, New York — has been flagged as being at risk after income on the property dropped dramatically. The property has two tenants, a parking garage and the now-closed Triomphe Restaurant. Should the property slip further, it will be passed to its special servicer, Midland Loan Services, part of PNC. Midland declined to comment.

  1. Trump owes up to $340m to Deutsche Bank
    Mr Trump’s biggest bank lender has financed his hotels in Chicago and Washington, and his Miami golf resort.

According to Mr Trump’s tax returns, disclosed by The New York Times, both National Doral in Miami and the International Hotel in Washington have generated big losses. The Doral suffered $162m in losses between 2012 and 2018, and the Washington hotel lost $55.5m between 2016, when it opened, and 2018. 

  1. Trump has at least $25m in debt with four small banks and one asset manager
    All of the loans are between $5m and $25m. Most do not mature within the next four years. Two of them are mortgages on Trump family properties, in the New York suburbs and in Palm Beach, Florida; two are on Trump golf courses in New Jersey and Washington, DC; and one, which matures this year, is on a residential tower in Midtown Manhattan. 

The New York apartment market has experienced a 17 per cent price decline this year, according to Green Street. 

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https://www.ft.com/content/448c69a6-18f3-4fa0-a3ad-50e8ce553e1e

5. There is a $50m debt to Chicago Unit Acquisition Trust, secured against the Trump International Hotel and Tower in Chicago 
https://www.ft.com/tour.

This debt is mysterious. The trust is a corporation owned by DJT Holdings LLC — that is, Donald J Trump. Mr Trump appears to owe the money to himself. Asked about this unusual arrangement by The New York Times in 2016, Mr Trump said: “I have the mortgage. That is all there is. Very simple. I am the bank.” But he is the debtor, too, and it is not a typical mortgage; it is a “springing loan”, meaning it only comes due under specific conditions — typically a credit event such as a decline in credit rating. It has been suggested that this arrangement could be part of a tax avoidance strategy.

Additional reporting by Laura Noonan in New York

*This story has been amended to reflect post-publication reporting on the creditors on the loans on 1290 Avenue of the Americas in New York and 555 California Street in San Francisco

AussiePete
AussiePete

Here's an interesting article about research that suggests that a majority of the swing states that gave Biden the victory would have voted Trump back in if a number of issues had been more widely known... the issues include Biden's alleged sexual indiscretions, Hunter Biden's alleged corruption. Kamala Harris' leftist policies, Trump's economic and diplomatic successes and America's energy independence. The allegation is that the media suppressed these issues. (I notice that the research involves only a small sample size....)

Brochacho
Brochacho

Biden won, sure. But it doesn't mean we need to accept the terrible things that happened during this election. Shutting out observers is borderline criminal, bad rules on identification is another.

We need confidence in our system, now is as good of a time as ever to fix it.

davebarnes2
davebarnes2

Not at OAN, Newsmax and Breitbart.

Brother
Brother

The mail in balloting corrupted the entire election, add to that a blown UP pandemic scare that continues and you can control the masses.


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