Trump's Chances of Winning are Slip Slidin' Away
According to Predictit, Trump's chances of winning IA, OH, and GA haves slipped to 54%, 56%, and 58% respectively.
Not even Texas is a lock.
It's Early, But
OK, it's still early, so they say. But it is getting later and later.
The election is Tuesday, November 3.
That's about 4.5 months away.
The above compiled by 538 as noted on June 12 in Latest Swing State Polls Look Good For Biden.
Trump is barely ahead in Texas!
Very Biased 270 Map
270-to-Win has the map as shown above.
In recent polls, Biden is ahead in Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Ohio.
It would be OK for 270-to-Win to label those states as tossups if it also had Iowa, Georgia, and Ohio as tossups as well.
In the Electoral College, Iowa has 6 votes, Ohio 18, and Georgia 16.
270-to-Win vs Predictit
Even with that biased map, 270-to-Win has Biden ahead 248-204.
In contrast, Predictit has Biden ahead 334-204.
Understanding Trump's Very Narrow Path
In the Predict map, Biden could lose Iowa, Georgia, and Ohio, plus Florida, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Arizona, yet still beat Trump 274-264.
Read that last sentence until it sinks in how narrow Trump's path to victory really is.
It is not impossible for Trump to win. There are still 4.5 months left.
Because of the time factor, I have Biden a 65-35 or so favorite.
Too much can still happen, and if it does, I will change my forecast.
But the passage of time for Trump to do something meaningful is sliding away.
Trump has doubled down with efforts to shore up his base. But Trump's base is not his problem.
Swing voters in Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, and Pennsylvania won Trump the election.
They are breaking strongly for Biden.
Betting Odds Changed With Photo-Op Stunt
Trump lost the lead following his disastrous photo-op bible stunt in the wake of the George Floyd murger by a Minnesota police officer.
Following the photo-op incident I commented Something Changed for the Better: Trump's Bubble Just Shattered
Numerous ranking ex-military officers and ranking Republicans spoke out against Trump.
Colin Powell, George Bush, Cindy McCain, Mitt Romney, and Jeb Bush were among them.
For details, please see The Trump Spotlight Shifts to Colin Powell.
Trump slid further following a ridiculous Tweet in which Trump Defended Police Who Cracked a 75-Year Old Man's Head.
Don't forget Trump screwed many farmers (think Iowa and farmbelt states) with inane tariffs in a trade war Trump did not win.
Slip Slidin' Away
Trump's base is going nowhere. They would kiss his feet if he screwed a pooch.
Similarly, the Never-Trumpers would not vote for Trump even if Biden forgot his own name.
The battle is with swing voters and Trump has done nothing but alienate them.
Time is running out.
The nearer the destination the more Trump is Slip Slidin' Away.