Trump's Chances of Winning are Slip Slidin' Away

Mish

Trump could easily lose Iowa, Ohio, and Georgia. He cannot afford to lose any of them.

According to Predictit, Trump's chances of winning IA, OH, and GA haves slipped to 54%, 56%, and 58% respectively.

Not even Texas is a lock. 

It's Early, But

OK, it's still early, so they say. But it is getting later and later. 

The election is Tuesday, November 3. 

That's about 4.5 months away.

Early Polls 

Early Polls 538

The above compiled by 538 as noted on June 12 in Latest Swing State Polls Look Good For Biden.

Trump is barely ahead in Texas!

270-to-Win

270-to-Win June 14

Very Biased 270 Map

270-to-Win has the map as shown above. 

In recent polls, Biden is ahead in Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Ohio. 

It would be OK for 270-to-Win to label those states as tossups if it also had Iowa, Georgia, and Ohio as tossups as well. 

In the Electoral College, Iowa has 6 votes, Ohio 18, and Georgia 16. 

270-to-Win vs Predictit

Even with that biased map, 270-to-Win has Biden ahead 248-204.

In contrast, Predictit has Biden ahead 334-204.

Understanding Trump's Very Narrow Path

In the Predict map, Biden could lose Iowa, Georgia, and Ohio, plus Florida, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Arizona, yet still beat Trump 274-264. 

Read that last sentence until it sinks in how narrow Trump's path to victory really is. 

It is not impossible for Trump to win. There are still 4.5 months left. 

Because of the time factor, I have Biden a 65-35 or so favorite. 

Too much can still happen, and if it does, I will change my forecast. 

But the passage of time for Trump to do something meaningful is sliding away. 

Failed Tactics

Trump has doubled down with efforts to shore up his base. But Trump's base is not his problem. 

Swing voters in Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, and Pennsylvania won Trump the election. 

They are breaking strongly for Biden.

Betting Odds Changed With Photo-Op Stunt

Trump lost the lead following his disastrous photo-op bible stunt in the wake of the George Floyd murger by a Minnesota police officer.

Following the photo-op incident I commented Something Changed for the Better: Trump's Bubble Just Shattered

Numerous ranking ex-military officers and ranking Republicans spoke out against Trump.

Colin Powell, George Bush, Cindy McCain, Mitt Romney, and Jeb Bush were among them.

For details, please see The Trump Spotlight Shifts to Colin Powell.

Preposterous Tweet

Trump slid further following a ridiculous Tweet in which Trump Defended Police Who Cracked a 75-Year Old Man's Head.

Inane Tariffs

Don't forget Trump screwed many farmers (think Iowa and farmbelt states) with inane tariffs in a trade war Trump did not win. 

Musical Tribute

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iUODdPpnxcA

Slip Slidin' Away

Trump's base is going nowhere. They would kiss his feet if he screwed a pooch. 

Similarly, the Never-Trumpers would not vote for Trump even if Biden forgot his own name. 

The battle is with swing voters and Trump has done nothing but alienate them.  

Time is running out.

The nearer the destination the more Trump is Slip Slidin' Away.  

Mish

Comments (70)
No. 1-24
Sechel
Sechel

Could get far worse for Trump with Bolton's book coming out. I don't expect anything new to come out but its a week of bad headlines that will further drown out any Trump narrative to turn things around. I also think rising Covid-19 cases many in Trump states will hurt him.

I see a potential Biden blunder by him not picking Klobuchar. He's being pressured to pick an African American VP. Nothing wrong with that except it gains him no electoral math and possibly hurts him with independents who might get scared away.

Trump standing firm as being against kneeling, holding a rally on Juneteenth and being against removing Confederate statues along with renaming bases indicate more forced errors on Trump's part.

Trump's strategy seems to be doubling and tripling down on his base at the risk of losing independents and moderate. He's barely beating Biden among men is performing more poorly with women than he did in 2016 and does not do well with college educated males. Very clear Trump will not make inroads on blacks. He seems to be holding up OK with Hispanics a demographic I'm struggling to understand here but by and large its a losing coalition

Tengen
Tengen

I was surprised to see a story this week where Trump said something about how he would just "do other things" if he loses in November. It's a rarity to see him acknowledge the possibility of defeat. Q fans were probably aghast to see that.

It's not surprising that both candidates already accused the other of trying to steal the election and Biden even said something about using the military to remove Trump if he refuses to vacate after losing. The rhetoric is already way over the top and it's only June.

We all have five more months to prepare before a large chunk of the country goes bonkers, no matter what the result is.

channelstuffing
channelstuffing

Trump is simply following in Obama's footsteps,spend 4 years pretty doin nothin (rack up dept)but act (pretend)like you're gettin stuff done.Worked like a charm for Barak,he easily won reelection and spent the next 4 years doin what he was good at....Nothing,Trump hope that secret sauce will work for him!!

Russell J
Russell J

Barr's investigation could and should be a huge blow to Biden and the Dems. This should not be overlooked, that attempted coup of an elected president should not be forgotten. Biden and Obama were right there in the thick of it no matter how well they covered they're tracks.

Iowa Hawklord
Iowa Hawklord

Iowa could be sound enough. If Trump really wants to clench Iowa he needs to double down on increasing ethanol production, and give certain technical relief from EPA rules. That will take care of most problems here. I express no opinion of anywhere else.

numike
numike

Glenn Beck is very sorry for Donald Trump

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

The fact that Trump had a rally in Tulsa tells you he is in trouble. Trump will be in Texas trying to defend there next. Biden may spend the least amount of money of any modern day President when this is done.

ionicmantoms
ionicmantoms

As far as I'm concerned, the only question is whether or not Nunes and Trump will take the whole Republican party down with them. Look at how ridiculous these bozos are. Repudiate now or Romney becomes the defacto leader.

Anda
Anda

I could say similar of the state of politics/economy/society of various western countries, but here it is of the US:

Has anyone got any better idea of how things should be to aim for for their country, and I mean pragmatic do-able direction that is more than superficial show ?

All I see is a very negative mood everywhere and no real offer of what will provide relief from how everything stands. Just blaming politicians for this does not count btw, I mean forward someone who would realistically be able to get elected and lead the country to something better if you think they have the/an answer, but otherwise representatives are no more than that - they at best represent the state of a country but are not ultimately responsible for it being the way it is, their failure to satisfy being also equally the insatiable nature of its society.

I just say it because that is how it comes across from outside, like the country is out of ideas...not the leader, the country.

?

thimk
thimk

Trump's rallies will bail him out . /s

abend237-04
abend237-04

Welcome to Balkanized America; Pat Buchanan was right. Democrat success depends on cobbling together enough minorities and special interest groups to win, not lead.
They will almost certainly do it in November, leaving 65 million extremely pissed and disillusioned Republicans in their wake, facing another eight years of Basement Biden, followed by whatever leftist loser Joe's handlers pick for us as president.
Leaves me feeling really good about our prospects.
What a goat rodeo. Fortunately, there's still enough of Minneapolis and Chicago left to burn after the not guilty verdict at Derek Chauvin's trial, so there's that.

rick.b.dawson
rick.b.dawson

To be perfectly honest Trump's policies have really hurt the rural parts of the Midwest. My brother and I own a 1400 acre farm in eastern Nebraska, set up as an LLC in Iowa, and we and all the farmers around us have been hit hard for the last 3 years from his trade war with China. And now China is avoiding the US entirely for its farm resources like soybeans, which now come from Brazil. We're projecting we won't be able to sell this year, with the 4th of July being typically the peak in prices, thus will have to put in storage and wait until we can lock a price on the futures market.

Stuki
Stuki

Trump may have done his darnedest to alienate as many voters as possible over the past few months; but it's not inconceivable that at least part of the relative popularity decline vs Biden, comes on account of the latter thus far having been able to largely stay out of the limelight. Letting Trump destroy himself while quietly watching from the sidelines.

As the elections draws closer, Biden can't rely on that strategy forever. And once he, too, has no choice but to step into the arena and show what he's made of, people may quickly find he really ain't all that either.... Crazy may no longer look as bad when directly compared to senile, as it does in isolation.

Sechel
Sechel

I'm sure its intentional but you had me thinking Trump may be humming Paul Simon

Thalamus
Thalamus

Democratic governors keeping their states closed for political reasons will push more swing voters to Trump.

njbr
njbr

Something seems to be medically wrong with Trump--look at the video of his attempt to take a drink of water at the podium of the West Point speech and then a look at the walk down the ramp.

Ted R
Ted R

Trump campaign raises 14 million bucks this past Sunday. Doesn't look like he is losing much support to me.

Cohetes
Cohetes

There is certainly electoral math in choosing an African American VP -- it's called turnout. I can't say that it's the right electoral math, but there doesn't seem to be really compelling electoral math behind any of the other choices (other than the obvious impact on the female vote of choosing a woman).

Andy999
Andy999

I'm 72 and a lifelong Republican and voted for Trump in 2016. But I'm disgusted with the cavalier and ridiculous way that he has handled the Covid situation. Requiring face masks and social distancing seems a small price to pay to make older people, even those like me with no comorbidity issues, feel safe enough to shop at grocery stores, etc. It makes me sick to think of a Biden or worse being elected, but I am resigned to it now. To prepare, I have exercised all of my remaining company stock options to minimize the impact of the confiscatory taxes that are sure to be coming down the pike.

PontingJack
PontingJack

I am really thankful to an author for taken time to written informative blogs that everyone should know about it.
Jack,

Alyssa_Patterson
Alyssa_Patterson

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Busdriver1
Busdriver1

Biden will fall apart when the debates start and he has to get out of his basement. Trump may iriate many voters but he had improved the economy prior to the coronavirus. The question for voters will be, do you want someone who is a bragart or someone that is close to being in a nursing home. Pretty easy choice for me.

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