Trump's Job Approval Surge Fades Into the Dust

Mish

Trump's job approval ratings are back at 43 after a brief surge to 49 in March.

Gallup reports Trump's Job Rating Slides; U.S. Satisfaction Tumbles.

Key Points

  • Trump's job approval rating drops six percentage points, to 43%
  • Congress' approval rating reaches 30% for the first time in over a decade
  • U.S. satisfaction with the direction of the country tumbles 12 points

Since the mid-March poll, Trump's job approval rating has fallen six points among Democrats (to 7%) and four points among independents (to 39%). Higher approval ratings among those groups helped fuel the short-lived rally in approval for Trump. Republicans' evaluations of Trump have been highly stable throughout 2020, and currently sit at 93% approval.

These data are from an April 1-14 Gallup poll. 

Rally Around the President

Trump's polling rise is very consistent with a global pattern of rallying around the leader in timers of crisis except that Trump's bounce in March was essentially anemic.

Nate Silver discussed this on April 1 in What Explains The Bump In Trump’s Approval Ratings?

According to Morning Consult, Trump’s net approval rating rose 5 percentage points from March 11 (the day the World Health Organization officially declared the coronavirus crisis a pandemic) to March 24,1 ranking sixth among the nine major world leaders Morning Consult polled. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau all experienced increases of more than 20 points in their net approval ratings.

Other American politicians are seeing huge increases in their popularity as well. New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who has been addressing one of the nation’s worst COVID-19 outbreaks with regular, nationally televised briefings of his own, has experienced a huge surge in support, according to Siena College polling. In February, only 44 percent of registered New York voters viewed Cuomo favorably, while 50 percent viewed him unfavorably. But last week, 71 percent (!) said they had a favorable opinion of Cuomo, and just 23 percent said their opinion was unfavorable.

Base Going Nowhere

As I have pointed out many times, the base is going nowhere. Trump has a 93% approval rating among Republicans. This group will never vote for Biden.

Similarly, hard-core Democrats will never vote for Trump.

The group to watch is the independents who only give Trump a 39% approval rating.

Why the Bounce?

I expected the bounce and for the bounce to fade as well.

Consider some snips from my March 29 post Trump Worried About 2.2 Million Deaths, Extends Shutdown Through April

Empathy

Trump displayed a quality I have never seen in him before: empathy. He spoke of black body bags as long as trucks and said "it's not supplies, it's people. I've never seen anything like it."

In reference to Italy, Trump says "We got lucky".

That's certainly a new behavior.

Had Trump managed to stay on that level his ratings would be much higher.

Instead, Trump has been making foolish comments over state's rights, gotten into battles with the press and governors, and does daily press conferences that look more like campaign speeches.

  1. April 13: Trump's Council to Re-Open America is a Basket of Buffoonery
  2. April 13: Let's Compare Trump 2020 Comments to Nixon Comments in 1977
  3. April 15: Trump Threatens to Adjourn Congress to Make Appointments
  4. April 15: The Art of a Failed Oil Deal

Of the above, it is point number 2 that will ultimately be the most damaging.

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Trump had the audacity to Tweet that he could tell governors when states had to reopen. Numerous governors quickly put Trump in his place.

Back-to-work timeframes are debatable, but Trump made a complete fool out of himself regarding who is in charge. He had a chance to walk his statements back the next day, but instead he doubled down at a press conference when he claimed "total" authority.

Trump: "When somebody is president of the United States, the authority is total. And that's the way it's got to be."

Reporter 1: "Total?"

Trump: "It's total. the governors know that. You have a couple of bands of Democrat governors but they will agree to it."

Reporter 2: "You said when someone is president of the United States, their authority is total. That is not true."

Trump: "You know what we are going to do. We're going to write up papers on this, it's not going to be necessary because the governors need us one way or the other."

The damage from that absurd exchange is not completely in. It happened very late in the polling period.

Since then, Trump made questionable at best statements on appointments as well as foolish proposals on energy, neither of which is yet reflected in the polls.

Power Grab

Independents and swing voters are galled at Trump's blatant power grab statements and self-adulation.

That's where the election will be won or lost. And it will be lost when independents and swing voters have had enough.

The issue is not Biden. It is Trump himself, just as it was Hillary in 2016.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (55)
No. 1-16
numike
numike

Personally I never thought to much of Trump; narcissist and bombastic

davebarnes
davebarnes

My governor, Jared Polis, is at 75% approval.
The Dumpster® is at 43% in Colorado.

Schaap60
Schaap60

Well, at least it's unlikely Trump's approval rating falls another 6 points among Democrats.

Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett

Elections are bought.

DJT will keep upping fiscal stimulus ... $trillions and $trillions in current deficit ... until he sees his approval numbers rise.

No matter the future damage done.

wootendw
wootendw

Recently declassified documents indicate that senior intelligence officials were fully aware that the Steel dossier was fake and still used it to remove Trump from office. And there is plenty more we don't know yet.

I didn't vote in 2016 but these criminals need to be brought to justice. The CIA has been politicized and itt's extremely dangerous for a 'democracy' to have its intelligence community decide elections.

If anyone other than Trump become president, all investigations will be shut down.

WildBull
WildBull

Trump vs. Hillary wait four years ... Trump vs. Joe. That's the best the Democrats can come up with? Good Lord! I might just sit this one out. Let's see who his running mate is. Good chance he or probably she will finish out his term.

WildBull
WildBull

Trump disgusts me, but with the Bill of Rights suspended, I'm leery about letting anyone on the left have power.

rafterman
rafterman

NY ( including upstate and western parts of the state) and NJ have a population about 17.2 million, that represents 8.6% of the US population. NY and NJ has 17,229 covid deaths.

The remaining 48 states with 310 million or 91.4% of the US population has 13,786 covid deaths

Augustthegreat
Augustthegreat

Joke of the century: tRump gets a job approval from 43% of americans!

shred1
shred1

"Congress' approval rating reaches 30%." For what? They've done nothing. Remember those polls that said Hillary had 85%?

Carl_R
Carl_R

Trump and done and said so many incredibly stupid things during this Covid crisis, I can't see how the Democrats won't have a 2/3 majority in both houses for at least the next 12-20 years. There has to be a major shift between parties. Just as Hoover empowered the Democrats for 20 years, Trump has done the same. Not taking it seriously for a long time, and saying that it would vanish on it's own were critical failures that will not be forgotten. Holding the checks for a few extra days to put his name on them was in incredibly poor taste, and will make a lot of people angry. The list goes on and on.

On the whole, he's been a better President than I expected. That's because he's actually done a couple of things right, which was more than I expected. Those right things, however, can't possibly outweigh his incredible incompetence in handling Covid19.

Wmjack50
Wmjack50

It is unbelievable that after all the revelations about the Democrat controlled Deep State in DC and the Pravda media in this country that anyone would support the Democrat Party. You can fix the uninformed but you can't fix the stupid.

vultra2
vultra2

The hill has his approval at 48% and Rasmussen and Reuters has him at 46% for a 45.6% avg approval rating headline...you are only hyper focused on the one survey that helps you justify your hate and rage of Trump...you should change your website to Mish Talk - Daily Trump Rage

BaronAsh
BaronAsh

Your 4 points might explain most, but you missed a big one, namely that one reason his support might be dropping is because the shut-down is going much longer than the initial 2-week suggestion and people are seeing that it can have a devastating effect on their lives and the national economy and the experts have gotten it wrong all the time so their President (if they like him a little) got played and so isn't the Big Boss they were hoping he might become, and his supporters are loyal still but expecting most of their territories to open pronto and if they don't they'll be mad.

Your analysis is mainly from the pov of those who are terrified of the virus and hate the President, believing him to be a Russian spy or Big Corporation Bogey Man or whatever and listen to the Globalist (Alphabet) Media: for those he has indeed done badly.(Though he is right that no matter what he does, that would be the case in their eyes.)

There's a twist to what he said about 'absolute authority.' Leaving aside that it was technically incorrect as a general statement, and very poorly explained (as always with Trump, which I find infuriating), in a state of emergency there are many powers Governors usually have which they cannot unilaterally exercise under those statutes, and also there are things the Feds can insist upon - in terms of interstate commerce and other things - that the Governors cannot forbid - at least not lawfully.

But that's a technicality. What he really did is provoked both the media and the Dem Governors to become staunch federalists. That means that those Governors who dally in opening up, who prevent HCQ+, who impose silly draconian things like not being able to go to your second home, not being able to go on a beach etc., well their constituents won't be blaming the President now, will they? They will be addressing their objections to their Governors. Which is exactly what Trump wanted, and exactly what they all chorused they want too. Another win-win.

Isn't Trump the most infuriatingly successful blow hard celebrity Reality TV President ever, eh?

IslandGirl05
IslandGirl05

I remember something about Mexico paying for a wall...

amigator
amigator

Trump is just a regular guy! How can you not like a guy (or woman) that tells the press to shut up! C’mon Man!

His base? His base will vote for anyone that is not a lifelong politician! Or even smells like one!
Put someone else up there that is not a politician (as a job) and Trump's base will be cut in half! And then we will all get checks in the mail!


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