Trump is Losing to Biden in Latest Texas and Ohio Polls

Mish

Trump is losing ground in states presumed to be his.

Suddenly Trump no longer looks invincible. Of, course, his invisibility was nothing but an illusion in the minds of rabid supporters all along.

The lead image is from 538 Presidential Polls. Here's one more clip.

Ohio

General Election Polls 2020-04-30 A

"C/D" is the 538 rating of the pollster. It's not very high, and it is just one poll. 

Public Policy Polling, rated "B", has Biden ahead by one point in Texas. 

Extremely Difficult Setup for Trump to Win in November

On April 28, I noted the Extremely Difficult Setup for Trump to Win in November.

Trump's Extremely Unfavorable Map - 2020-04-28

Pennsylvania is Key

The biggest swing state headed for Biden is Pennsylvania with 20 Electoral College Votes.

Note that a Fox News poll conducted April 18-21 gives Biden an 8-point lead.

If Biden wins Pennsylvania, he can still lose Virginia and all the states I marked as tossups then still win (270 on the nose).

My map is actually generous to Trump. Mentally I have Florida as slightly leans Biden and Nevada as leans Biden. 

Ohio and What We Don't Know

I rate Ohio as a tossup due to lack of polls. Ohio is crucial to Trump so mentally move that into his column if you prefer. 

Without any polls I suspect Iowa may be in play. And if it turns into a rout, not exactly unlikely, even Texas could be in play for Biden.

Guess What?

Texas is in play. 

Biden could indeed win Texas. 

Battleground States

Ohio was not supposed to be a battleground state. But it is. And Texas may become one as well.

That was unexpected in nearly every corner but this one. 

Trump Presented with Grim Internal Poll

Please consider Trump presented with grim internal polling showing him losing to Biden

President Trump’s advisers presented him with the results of internal polling last week that showed him falling behind former vice president Joe Biden in key swing states in the presidential race, part of an effort by aides to curtail Trump’s freewheeling daily briefings on the coronavirus pandemic, according to three people with knowledge of the conversations.

One call on Wednesday — with Parscale patched in from his home in Florida and McDaniel from hers in Michigan — was designed to present grim polling data to the president to encourage him to reduce the frequency of coronavirus briefings or to stop taking questions, after seeing his numbers slip for several weeks, officials said.

Trump resisted the pleas, saying people “love” the briefings and think he is “fighting for them,” a person with knowledge of the Wednesday conversation said. 

People Love the Briefings?! Really?

No, they don't, except for reporter who like to bait Trump and succeed. 

Trump's Lysol Moment

Trump's support base does like his message. They even believe Trump regarding his Lysol Moment: His Most Ridiculous Comment Ever.

In case you missed it, Trump promoted the idea of internal disinfectants. Then two people from Georgia got sick drinking Lysol and hot lines in several states received calls on how to drink it safely. 

Take No Blame or Advice 

Trump will take no blame for any of this. Nor will he take advice from his advisors who advised him to just shut up and let the experts talk. 

But hey, Trump does not believe them, nor does his rabid base. Why? 

hey don't say what Trump wants to hear: Rah Rah Sis Boom Bah, Trump is the greatest.

So don't expect any changes in Trump's behavior.

Words of Caution

These polls are early. November is still 6 months away but the election map, Trump's handing of Covid-19, the recession, and the thought of 4 more years of Trump to swing voters all weigh against Trump.

It's not impossible for Trump to win in November, but it is a very uphill battle from here.

This is Not 2016

Many swing voters gave Trump a nod in in 2016 simply because they despised Hillary.

Many of those same swing voters have had enough of Trump's divisive treatment of allies, his belittling of everyone but himself, and his handling of Covid-19.

Trump's Need for Adulation Outweighs his Covid-19 Concerns

Trump is going through withdrawal.

He desperately needs screaming fan cheering him on at big rallies even as the independents and swing voters drop him in droves.

Trump announced he will start a campaign tour, Covid-19 be damned. He wants every seat full. 

For details, please see Trump's Need for Adulation Outweighs his Covid-19 Concerns.

Mish

Comments (84)
No. 1-26
cienfuegos
cienfuegos

TDS is a constant theme here...of course he's a bumbling fool but let's get real...the last four Presidents and their opponents were either cheap hustlers or empty-suits...take your pick. But all of them were perfect reflections of the Empire in decline they were elected to lead. Trump is just the latest symptom of the disease eating our nation alive.

Sechel
Sechel

This could get dangerous. It may be pushing Trump to take chances. Much of what the idea describes sounds well laid out but if we're short cutting drug trials we could be putting lives at risk. Trump is also talking about imdenifying drug companies companies from causing illness or death if things don't work out.

davebarnes2
davebarnes2

"If Biden wins Pennsylvania, he can still lose Virginia"
What?
Lose Virginia?
What is the probability of Biden losing VA?
Are you trying to scare me?

Sechel
Sechel

I've said it before but the Covid-19 virus is Donald Trump's Katrina. It's not hard to see he ignored it for six weeks, that he hasn't been fully engaged since.

Disastrous daily press briefings fighting with the press and with both Democratic and Republican Governors instead of agreeing and over-delivering didn't help either.

Also and while I'm not saying its over for Donald Trump by a long shot, its important to remember that although he won decidedly with electoral votes in 2016 in a number of the states he won he did so with the narrowest of margins. He even lost the popular vote. The question is since 2016 does anyone really believe Trump has broadened his base of support? I don't? I'm 100% sold Trump will lose the popular vote by more than he did in 2016. I'm still undecided on the swing states but the tide is against Trump at the moment. He's now going for a hail Mary on a Covid-19 vaccine. Not a bad decision if its executed well but by and large history will paint him a failure on how he rose to fight Covid-19

Bam_Man
Bam_Man

It will be a Clown Show.

I will write in "Bozo" on my ballot.

El Capitano
El Capitano

I guess some people still watch polls. Have we learning nothing over the last few years? I'm not big fan of trump, but creepy joe biden is not going to be the president. He will be lucky to avoid jail.

caradoc-again
caradoc-again

Who on earth would want to inherit this mess? The collapse isn't complete, until it is all anyone can do is try to delay the outcome. There can be no rebuild until there is a collapse.

Have posted it before, will repeat, Biden will regret winning.
Democrats will regret winning.

rafterman
rafterman

Mish your drinking too much of the TDS Kool-aid.

If you listen to the Trump clip about disinfectant, was the word Lysol used? No. Only disinfectant, maybe this is what he was referring to:

Or here:

A product being tested by Cedars Sinai Hospital in Los Angeles.

If a president told you 40 years a ago that we could insert a wire through your groin and repair issues in your heart, would you have concluded Jimmy Carter has lost his mind?

In 1962 when a president said we will put a man on the moon by the end of the decade, would you have concluded John Kennedy has lost his mind.

SynergyOne
SynergyOne

Every voter needs to flip the script. None of this VoteBlueNoMatterWho or straight ticket red. Instead people need to vote the opposite of who is currently in office. Vote for anyone but the incumbent. Flush the fuckers out and let them know their lobbyist sucking days are over.

Tengen
Tengen

I'll be amazed if the blue team lets Biden proceed to the debates. What are they going to do, have his wife accompany him to the podium? Fit him with an earpiece? He'll be utterly lost up there without constant assistance.

Then again, the blue team would probably rather lose with "their" guy than win with someone with imperfect pedigree. The red team is the same way, they were far happier losing with McCain or Romney than winning with Trump. Purity is more important than victory since control is the name of the game and our overlords win with either team.

amigator
amigator

Com'on Mish. You could put anybody in the poles against Trump and get the same numbers.

Jdog1
Jdog1

Hey Mish,
You have been hammering Trump at every opportunity, most of which has been debunked, but now we have some real news about how the FBI has conspired to convict or get Flinn fired based entirely on politics. I don't suppose you will be touching that story, or the accusations about Biden that have far more credibility than the ones about Kavanaugh. The one thing you can always count on from Democrats is their complete lack of credibility..... Should be an interesting election.

Brother
Brother

Polling is disastrous the issue is where are you going to go when the green new deal gets elected in ?

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

Mish it is April 30th 2020. On April 30th in 2016, Trump was losing every poll in a general election despite dealing up the nomination.. Lets say there are many things that could happen between now and November. Even if Biden is elected are the problems created prior to when Trump was elected Trump's fault ? In an odd way the problems are the fault of career politicians like Biden. Trump isnt perfect but I think people see the point of relying on China and the world for their goods and services. So the choice is stark come November. Are we going back to past before 2016 ? Or does Trump deserve more time to change the system that career politicians created.

Jdog1
Jdog1

The only chance the Democrats have is to pull a Bobby Kennedy on Creepy Joe and put in a last minute replacement.

RonJ
RonJ

"Suddenly Trump no longer looks invincible. Of, course, his invisibility was nothing but an illusion in the minds of rabid supporters all along."

Trump has been attacked by a corrupt government and corrupt news media all along the way. A lesser man would not have made it this far.

I saw a blurb the other day that Trump wanted to get the troops out of Afghanistan by way of Covid as an excuse and that he got pushback from the generals. Trump got pushback every time he tried to get out of Syria.

The president is supposed to be in charge of foreign policy, not un-elected bureaucrats in the intelligence community. Trump was never a member of the government insiders club, which is why they opposed him so vehemently.

I will stick with the one who is upsetting their apple cart.

It will be interesting to see who Durham will be indicting and what truth is going to be exposed.

wmjack
wmjack

The first time I heard of Donald Trump was in the 1980 farm crisis. Farmers had borrowed money to expand production on high prices of commodities. The commodities dropped in value and farms were foreclosed on. Trump gave money to a widow whose husband had killed himself to help save her farm here in GA. That is the type of man Trump is--not a deep state DC politician-

LegitJerry
LegitJerry

Women say what is popular in public but they won’t be voting for a man that can’t keep himself from pawing little girls. Just like Hillary that defended Slick Willy all of those years. Bumbling Bush got a second term. Obama got a second term. Kerry, Romney, and Biden are all weak candidates.

Webej
Webej

To be fair, lysol drinkers need to be set against the background of incidents with bleach and disinfectants per year; that number is much higher than you would think, but this month they will all be "caused" by Trump.

Ken Kam
Ken Kam

Antibiotic refers specifically to something that kills bacteria. Only bacteria. Not viruses or other germs.

MattyJ74
MattyJ74

Without casting aspersions on you Mish look at the comments here. They reflect the views similar to the men who stormed the Michigan legislature. Obama haters (because he was brown) and Trump sycophants-they aren’t necessarily the same groups. They can’t see due to their blinkered views of the world. You have a valuable blog of quality discourse. Unfortunately the company you keep does not reflect the intellect you possess. It disappoints me to read the comments knowing most here are fucking morons- that are bigoted and stupid. Many have not lived anywhere other than the US. There is no perspective - the North Pole does not run through NY and every empire fails at some time. You and your fellow citizens need to take heed. If the US adopts the Trump regime for 4 more years - I will bet dollars to donuts that the US falls as a super power.

awc13
awc13

there is a survey out that says biden has a greater than 99% chance of winning in november

mpowerOR
mpowerOR

Polls... LOL.

Mish jumping on the poll-watcher bandwagon... because it's worked wonders for progs/lefties in recent election, eh?

Keep watching garbage polls... keep getting it all wrong.

El Capitano
El Capitano

Respectfully, Trump is a child when speaking, but if I look without emotions on the things he has done, I have to conclude it has been a fairly effective presidency. Look how many lying snakes in the deep state he has rooted out. This is not dem vs gop. This is deep state operatives operating outside the law vs. america. The FBI is corrupt. Trump proved it. He didn't go along with the status quo. So, no, Hillary would not have won. Trump would have won bigger. Did I mention I think Trump is a child that never grew up? But hillary is a corrupt politician who is very sneaky and who wears a "mao suit" (her words) in her march toward communism in the USA.

Advancingtime
Advancingtime

It appears that American voters will have to choose between Donald Trump and Joe Biden to be our next President. It could be said many voters are not jumping with joy.

Both of these men are old. Biden sports signs of dementia and has been accused of corruption. Trump is considered divisive and not as truthful as many people would like. The article below argues are flawed presidential election process is responsible for giving America such poor choices.

Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab

I have it on good authority that the DNC will be bringing back Jimmy Carter as the democratic Presidential contender--he still has one term before he hits his limit.