Trump is Trailing Badly in All Recent Florida Polls: Why?

Mish

In six Florida polls between June 9 and June 23, Biden leads Trump in every poll by a minimum of 4 percentage points and an average of 7.8.

What's Happening?

A Fox News story and poll provides a set of answers that Trump supporters do not want to hear: Biden Leads in Florida as Trump Lags Among Seniors.

Voters think Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden is better suited to handle the issues of the day, expanding his lead over President Donald Trump in the battleground state of Florida.

Key Points

  1. Biden tops Trump by 9 points, 49-40 percent, in a Fox News survey of Florida registered voters. That’s up from a 3-point edge in April (46-43 percent).
  2. Among those “extremely” motivated to vote, Biden’s lead grows to 11 points (53-42 percent).
  3. The former vice president owes his advantage to the backing of Hispanics (+17 points), women (+18 points), and Millennials born between 1981 and 1996 (+30).
  4. Some groups that are key to a Trump reelection split down the middle, including men (46 Biden vs. 44 Trump) and voters ages 65 and over (47-48 percent) -- Trump’s 8-point edge among white voters (42-50 percent) also trails expectations.
  5. Independents go for Biden by 22 points (40-18 percent); however, a large number, 42 percent, are undecided or voting for a third-party candidate.
  6. By wide margins, Florida voters prefer Biden to Trump to manage immigration (50-40 percent), coronavirus (49-36 percent), and race relations (52-34 percent).
  7. By a 4-point spread, they trust Trump (47 percent) over Biden (43 percent) on the economy.
  8. Defections among core supporters are part of the president’s problem: 9 percent of Republicans, 8 percent of those who approve of Trump, and 8 percent of 2016 Trump voters back Biden in the matchup.

I did not come up with those key points, Fox News did, but I did come up with the subtitle and I added emphasis.

The recent surge in Florida Covid-19 cases, Trump's poor handling of Covid, and Florida age demographics can easily account for most of Biden's Florida gains. 

Trump Behind in Texas 

Four Fox News Polls

Fake Polls 

All 4 polls by Fox News are fake. 

I know that because Trump says news broadcasts are the real polls. 

As we all know, Fox News is a constant purveyor liberal news except of course when the Silent Majority is watching Hannity interview Trump.

Fake Polls in Battleground States

For details on 17 other fake polls, please see Trump is Behind in Every Recent Battleground Poll.

There were 4 polls in Wisconsin, 3 in Michigan, 3 in Pennsylvania, 3 in North Carolina, 2 in Florida, and 2 in Arizona.

Those 17 polls were purposely rigged so the liberal media could brag about them. 

The 4 Fox News polls were purposely rigged so Hannity could complain about them.

There is no other possible explanation. 

Current Snapshot

Current Snapshot

I created the above map on 270toWin. 

That link is interactive if you care to play around. 

Betting Odds

Predictit 2020-06-27

The Betting Odds on Predictit give Biden a 62-39 edge.

The above map is how I see things breaking except NC is close to a genuine tossup.

Path to Victory

For Trump to win, he needs Ohio, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Florida.

Any one of those for Biden would be enough. Biden could even lose all four if he won Iowa. 

I put Iowa in Trump's column, but his lead is only by 1. 

Trump's is behind in the most recent Texas and Georgia polls. But I put those states in Trump's column anyway. 

Not Impossible For Trump to Win

It is by no means impossible for Trump to win. I have Trump's odds at about 30%.

The Economist has Biden a 91% favorite.

Too much can happen in 4 months for the odds to be that high, 

Interestingly, the economist has Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona in the uncertain category it defines as 50-65%. 

By that definition, one could reasonably put Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Florida in the uncertain category as well.  

Mish

Comments (88)
No. 1-20
numike
numike

Coronavirus uses same strategy as HIV to dodge immune response,. Both viruses remove marker molecules on surface of an infected cell that are used to identify invaders
This commonality could mean Sars-CoV-2 may be around for some time
And how are we doing on that HIV vaccine???

Sechel
Sechel

the headline says it all, "Trump lags among seniors"

In addition, some groups that are key to a Trump reelection split down the middle, including men (46 Biden vs. 44 Trump) and voters ages 65 and over (47-48 percent) -- Trump’s 8-point edge among white voters (42-50 percent) also trails expectations

Trump's barely breaking even among those groups he needs most to pull off Florida! . And about 1/5 Floridians are over 65. To understand why the elderly matter you can't look at median age you need to look at quintiles.

Trump told over 65 year old Floridians, the most loyal voters out there they were expendable. Yet another forced error

channelstuffing
channelstuffing

All Trump has to do is hand out the checks,$1200 a month to every American for 6 months and it's game over,without it he realistically has zero chance (less than zero)of re-upping for 4 more,Biden will run the table and DT will be back in the private sector,maybe get his own show on Fox or The Game Show Network!

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

Trump still has a shot because he is right on the immigration and labor visa issues. Most working Americans can relate to these issues. The Democrats will get high turnout and even may win but they can only coopt on the issues where is Trump if they win. I really think Biden needs to go out of the box with his VP pick to keep his momentum. The former CEO of Xerox would be my pick. But the party wont let him go outside the box so Trump will get a bounce this summer in his numbers when people see another politician as Bidens pick ( and likely next President). Trump's tax returns and information on pending cases will be released come September or October and this time Trump wont have interference from the FBI helping him like he did in 2016.

Anda
Anda

On a lighter note, but not sure if he is still running...

CCBW
CCBW

I think Joe would be a good president some times he can put ten words together and make sence that is on a good day. we dont need a debate that would be a wast of time. I'm sure Joe will want to protect us from the market he will take our roth IRA's IRA's , 401K's and put them in with our social security that way there safe. Now if you buy all that crap you must be a dem. and want to be taken care of like live stock stay in your safe zone we'll tell when it's OK to come out your to DUME to know that a mask dose work.

Mish
Mish

Editor

@Tengen

"At this late stage, it's difficult to imagine too many people actually believing in either of these lousy candidates."

Yes!

That is precisely the dilemma

caradoc-again
caradoc-again

Whoever wins will wish they hadn't.

valpal1
valpal1

Of course there's other explanations. Like how the pollsters were wrong in 2016 they can be wrong again. Or said w sarcasm of author, "of course Biden wins cuz polls are never wrong".
OR another: bc nobody knows who these pollsters are polling or if it's a strategy to present false numbers. Or said w sarcasm of author: "of course Biden wins bc every American was asked who they'd vote for and they ALL gave an honest answer".

JonSellers
JonSellers

I live in Florida. I agree with the polls. Anecdotal: my elderly parents have been big Trump supporters. However, both have medical issues that would make them vulnerable to the virus. They were on the "it's good that we're opening up. People can exercise their liberty, and conservatives will do the right thing" bandwagon. When it became abundantly evident that these so-called conservatives could give a damn about my parents or anyone else, they entered a period of cognitive dissonance. Now that most of the businesses are voluntarily shutting down again as they try to protect their employees and customers, they're seeing the economy collapse regardless of what the President and governor say. My mother actually said that "Trump supporters are almost actively sabotaging the President". I responded that the President lead them to where they are.

Anyway, both are Republicans, but both have lost faith in the President and the GOP. No way they'll vote for Biden, but they're currently planning on sitting the elections out.

Bam_Man
Bam_Man

There hasn't been a convention or any debates yet.
Just wait until Biden has to perform in either, with the entire country watching.
Not going to be pretty and just might change a few peoples' minds.

Sechel
Sechel

When it comes to Trump its all explained by Hickam's dictum. Only one thing left to do

ToInfinityandBeyond
ToInfinityandBeyond

Either Trump is a lot dumber than he would like people to think (quite probably) or he is, to put it politely, losing it (quite possibly) or maybe even both. Either way the only thing likely to save the day for Trump come November is Biden completely blowing it which is also not out of the realm of possibility. As I said before we have two lousy candidates to choose from. We have seen what Trump has to offer and it is not pretty. The prospect of a democratic president for the next 4 years is not particularly appealing but better than the devil we know. We can only hope the Republican part comes to its senses and strong arms Trump into stepping down from the November election. If not the Republicans are in serious danger of also losing the Senate. Looks like it will be an interesting next few months to say the least.

alexgdad
alexgdad

the Democrat's Defund-the-police ,p
oling in Michigan regarding Biden's mental health, just to name two reason's Biden is a doubtful next President...Hillary polled higher than Trump, gotta wonder who those poling operatives are using

Montana33
Montana33

Trump knows that Putin paid a bounty to slaughter US soldiers and lied about it - and is trying to kill pre-existing conditions protections and the ACA in the middle of a pandemic. Morning Joe show thinks he wants to lose so he can start his new business. Trump only ever cared about monetizing his Presidency. That’s why he insists the election is rigged. He will say his loss was really a win so he can save face and then he’ll launch his new media company. His hotels are dead. He has no business to go back to so he needs to start his new one now.

jacob_zuma
jacob_zuma

Trump fumbled with his idiotic responses to Covid-19 & the BLM protests. It really is difficult to see him winning now.

William Janes
William Janes

As long as Basement Joe can remain barricaded in his home, his probability of keeping his poll lead remains strong with the following exceptions: the hard leftist in the Demo party want a radical black woman as his vice president. That would lead to many potent Republican attack ads. Basement Joe appears to support open borders, open up the jails, and opening up the treasury to black reparation claims. Difficult to see the popularity of those issues. Now can the Trump Team make Joe come out of the basement and play, his verbal thinking skills are atrocious compared to even recently under the Obama Adm. Can Dill, Scout, and Jem make Boo Radley come out and play?

crazyworld
crazyworld

Let U.S. apologize by electing democrats

Herkie
Herkie

I will remind you that HRC led in the FL polls by double digits in late 2016 but lost Florida in the GE. So either it was rigged or she fell that much in a matter of weeks. In fact they pulled resources out of FL to spend in other swing states because she was so far ahead. I will say this about FL though, it is really pretty evenly divided between left and right, and 16% of the population is black. They will back democrats on polling, but then just not actually vote unless they have a black person to vote for. They turned out for Obama, they have not turned out for white democrats. Trump won Florida by 113,000 and at least three times that many blacks eligible to vote did not bother. Although that could have been partly a function of her towering lead in the polls, they could well have told themselves they did not need to because she was going to win anyway.

The black voter turnout rate declined for the first time in 20 years in a presidential election, falling to 59.6% in 2016 after reaching a record-high 66.6% in 2012.

But do not think I blame blacks for the failure to support democrats where it counts, at polling stations. It is the young who espouse the farthest left sentiment, and yet they turn out in numbers like 46.4% in 2012 and just barely eeked out 50% in 2016. They are getting EXACTLY what they deserve. They want student loan reform? They could have put Hillary over the top by a record landslide had they just bothered to vote so I have had it up to here with their whining about social injustices. If you do not vote you do not get to cry and loot and riot.

Herkie
Herkie

Saw something encouraging yesterday. And old veteran (could tell by his plates) with a newish pickup truck yesterday I saw in Florida had magnetic signs made up for his rig and stuck to the doors that read TRUMP LIED PEOPLE DIED. In bold red caps. Pretty sure it was the whole Putin/bounty thing that set him off, veterans in general are really pissed about that. By the way veterans tend to vote almost 80% for the GOP, but I think they lost quite a few with Trump this time around. It would not surprise me if it were 30/70 rather than 80/20 this time.


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