Trump is the phony, Not Fox News

Mish

Trump trails Biden by 12 points in a Fox News Poll. That is all it takes for Trump to accuse the pollster.

Trump Tweets About Phony Fox News

Here are the results of the Fox News Poll.

Methodology

Interviews were conducted June 13-16, 2020 among a random national sample of 1,343 registered voters (RV). Landline (280) and cellphone (1,063) telephone numbers were randomly selected for inclusion in the survey using a probability proportionate to size method, which means phone numbers for each state are proportional to the number of voters in each state.

Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ± 2.5 percentage points.

The poll includes additional interviews (an oversample) of randomly selected black voters. These interviews were done to allow additional analysis of the subgroup and are weighted so they are not overrepresented in the overall national sample. The total 252 black sample is made up of 119 interviews as part of the base national sample and 133 oversample interviews.  

Fox News does not conduct its own polls. Since 2011, The Fox News Poll is conducted under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) (formerly known as Anderson Robbins Research) and Shaw & Company Research (R). 

Phony?

There is nothing remotely phony about the poll. 

Fox News is rated A- by FiveThirtyEight. 

Over Sampling?

ZeroHedge commented "The survey of 1,343 registered voters included an oversample of 252 black voters. Democrats were oversampled 46% vs. 40% Republicans. Of those, 40% said they were 'solid' Democrats vs. just 33% of Republicans who said the same."

So what? It is nearly impossible to get a demographic perfect mix. That is why all the pollsters normalize the polls.

Don’t Outguess or “Unskew” the Polls

FiveThirtyEight says Don’t Outguess or “Unskew” the Polls.

People who pick apart a poll by claiming it has, say, too many Democrats or too few black voters in its sample are generally wasting their time (and they usually have an agenda). Polls are almost always weighted to match their target population’s demographics, such as race and age. This doesn’t mean all pollsters assign weights in the same way, though, and there are practices like weighting by education on which the industry is split. Not weighting by education likely contributed to some of the most consequential polling errors of 2016, and many pollsters have now begun to factor education into their weighting, but others are still holding out. In an era when graduating from college has a significant bearing on white people’s political preferences, we recommend putting more stock in polls that weight by education than those that don’t. (On the other hand, weighting by partisanship, an idea that’s received some attention lately, is dicey and not something most pollsters do. That’s because party identification, unlike many demographic traits, is fluid, so setting it as a constant risks predetermining the poll’s outcome.)

Snapshots Not Predictions

Polls are snapshots, not predictions. Based on those snapshots, trump is clearly behind.

Didn't this happen in 2016?

Not really. The polls were all within the margin of error. A last second Charge by Comey Likely Tipped the Election.

Hillary Clinton would probably be president if FBI Director James Comey had not sent a letter to Congress on Oct. 28. The letter, which said the FBI had “learned of the existence of emails that appear to be pertinent to the investigation” into the private email server that Clinton used as secretary of state, upended the news cycle and soon halved Clinton’s lead in the polls, imperiling her position in the Electoral College.

Clinton’s decision to give paid speeches to investment banks, or her messaging on pocket-book issues, or the role that her gender played in the campaign — is hard to measure. The impact of Comey’s letter is comparatively easy to quantify, by contrast. At a maximum, it might have shifted the race by 3 or 4 percentage points toward Donald Trump, swinging Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Florida to him, perhaps along with North Carolina and Arizona. At a minimum, its impact might have been only a percentage point or so. Still, because Clinton lost Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by less than 1 point, the letter was probably enough to change the outcome of the Electoral College.

Knowing the Unknowable

Many people congratulated themselves. I heard many comments like these.

  • I knew Trump would win.
  • I knew the polls were wrong.

Anyone making such claims is a fool or a charlatan. It is not possible to "know" such things.

The polls were not even "wrong" because they were within the margin of error.

Rather, people's interpretations of the polls were wrong.

Luck Not Knowledge

Those professing to "know" Trump would win got very, very lucky by Comey's letter.

Pollsters Want to be Right

Except for party sponsored polls, the pollsters want to get things right. That is how pollsters get business. 

There is no reason pollsters for Fox News would ever deliver a "phony poll".

Trump is the Phony

Trump is the phony, Not Fox News.

Mish

Comments (40)
No. 1-20
ToInfinityandBeyond
ToInfinityandBeyond

It surprises me that Trump only trails Biden by 12 points given everything that has happened in the past couple of years. Shows the strength of his Republican base that accepts everything Trump says and does without question.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

Earth to GOP: This isn't 2016.

Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett

It's the Economy, stupid.

James Carville

The local rag today had an on point article on local business. The Town's head of economic development had a few eye openers.

Had multiple inquiries from local businesses on procedures to wind down and liquidate.

Many businesses only had 30 to 60 days of cash.

People would be VERY surprised at the names of some of the businesses in dire straits.

Zardoz
Zardoz

Most people don’t even like Biden, but trumpty’s antics will win Biden their votes.

Anda
Anda

Maybe he meant "phone poll" :) ... fawney dropping .. ha...haha... but either way, only one poll gets counted as real, which is the actual election.

Sechel
Sechel

I feel like i'm reading CNN. The attempt at a rational discussion to refute Trump disagreeing with the polls. It's fine but it overlooks one simple fact. Trump disputes any poll that doesn't show him winning.

And to show how much impact Trump has, my brother said to me the polls are fake because they over-sample. So I asked him , where did you learn about over-sampling? Your Patriot radio station? He said ,"yes!" This is what happens. Talking points go out and armed with a little information the base thinks they are experts an don't have to listen any further.

And yes. There's always confirmation bias.

Herkie
Herkie

So, there is now less than 19 weeks to go before the election. If every unemployed person went back to work tomorrow and there were no shortages in markets and nobody in arrears on their home, credit card, and auto loans, and no burned out buildings from rioting and looting, MAYBE just maybe Trump could eek out a win with the electoral college, provided Biden somehow has a major screw up. Or invited Maduro of Caracas to be his running mate.

I am not really totally certain who I will vote for as of today, but I do know it will not be for Trump. If Biden picks an especially bad VP candidate in my opinion I might write in Hillary or myself of something. But I will not vote for Trump.

RonJ
RonJ

Polls are phony, Mish.

For one, two Democrat politicians in Michigan said not to believe the polls.

Zero Hedge on the Fox Poll: "The survey of 1,343 registered voters included an oversample of 252 black voters. Democrats were oversampled 46% vs. 40% Republicans. Of those, 40% said they were 'solid' Democrats vs. just 33% of Republicans who said the same."

We saw this sort of gaming of polls last time, too.

RonJ
RonJ

"Hillary Clinton would probably be president if FBI Director James Comey had not sent a letter to Congress on Oct. 28."

According to the evidence, Hillary should have been indicted for her reckless disregard for classified material on her home server. Comey broke FBI protocol in order to protect her from prosecution.

Webej
Webej

‘‘Hillary Clinton would probably be president if FBI Director James Comey ...’’

Such statements also belong to the realm of the unknowable. Everyday we are told why the markets went up or down, always some news headline, virtually always an arbitrary anthology of what is supposedly going on in the world and investors’ minds.

We have been told for more than 3 years that the Russians control American elections and politics at almost every level.

These things are pretty unknowable, except if a candidate drops out after some scandal hits the headlines. The popularity contests are full of paradoxical effects and reactions by groups of people trending in the opposite direction that experts and pundits expect.

It is rare with respect to even simple things (‘If only I hadn’t burnt the lasagna at that dinner date’) to know what effect anything has on people’s mind and attitude.

Tengen
Tengen

It would be funny if neither candidate offered any 2020 platform and made no promises whatsoever. We could move into total "At least I'm not the other guy" rhetoric with nothing but attack ads and it wouldn't be much different. We're at least 90% of the way there now, we may as well make the final step into total lesser evilism.

I bet only a very small percentage of voters, probably in the single digits, actually believe in the candidate they will vote for. They vote red because they despise blue and vice versa, and it's every bit as unhealthy for the country as it sounds. We've moved into a well-earned cynicism and trust is all but broken.

It also doesn't help matters that the last group of true believers, Trump's Q crowd, turned out to be complete lunatics.

aqualech
aqualech

"Hillary Clinton would probably be president if she and her cohorts had not broken the law so egregiously that even the openly-partisan Comey had to announce the issue of Tony Wiener's email-soaked laptop."

Sechel
Sechel

what's interesting about the polling and isn't discussed all that much is that Biden's support hasn't grown so much as Trump's has fallen.

flubber
flubber

I could be wrong but in my opinion in the 2016 election, people had their minds made up as soon as they knew the candidates. I doubt if Comey's letter had any impact whatsoever on the outcome of the election.

I believe that 99% of the population currently have their minds made up right now heading into the 2020 election.

Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus

I wouldn't celebrate the fact that Trump trails Biden if I was an American. Trump is obnoxious, abrasive, narcissistic and much more. But do not confuse optics with substance. In foreign policy, as well as commerce, he turned out to be more of the realist than the rhetoric would suggest (and most have figured it out already).
And that is even more important in the long term.
If you want to look for an bad example of optics over substance, look no further than Canada.

Anna 7
Anna 7

This whole feud is phony. It distracts people from policy. It’s noise.

Tune out of the bullshit, people. Don’t vote for Demopublicans. Certainly don’t contribute money to them either.

Don’t watch Fox or CNN. Avoid giving eyeballs and ad revenue to NYT, Wapo, etc. Get your news from independent bloggers. Contribute money to keep them afloat.

Sechel
Sechel

With Trump Occam's razor may not be correct. With Trump we should be looking at Hickam's dictum.

RLJ
RLJ

This is just 2016 repeating itself. I personally have refused to answer any poll taker since in 2016 when a poll taker would not accept my answer to a question when all of the acceptable answers did not reflect my view. Refusing to answer pollsters is fairly common among my friends.

channelstuffing
channelstuffing

Hillery lost because she embraced Obama's failed policies,once she was seen in public with BO her fate was sealed! JB isn't making that same mistake,this is Bidens to lose and all he has to do to hand Trump victory is to have his picture taken with Obama...just one photo op and he'll lose every state!

wmjack
wmjack

Well based on the fake polls of 2016 election who can blame Trump for calling them out


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