Trump is Behind in Every Recent Battleground Poll

Mish

Trump is behind in all 17 of the most recent polls in 6 key battleground states. In addition, Trump trails in the most recent Ohio poll.

Biden Now Leads in Six States Key to Trump’s 2016 Victory, most by significant margins.

Biden’s improved polling in battleground states comes from a cross-section of demographic groups, but the Times poll shows the most significant movement comes among White voters -- especially college-educated ones -- and young people. He’s also flipped voters age 65 and older to his column, which helps to explain his standing in Florida and Arizona.

Only 31% of battleground voters approve of Trump’s response to the Floyd protests, and 63% say they would rather that the president address the causes of discriminatory policing than cracking down on protesters.

The roots of Trump’s troubles in Michigan may be deeper. There, 37% of voters say Trump treated the state more unfairly than most in responding to the coronavirus after the president feuded with Governor Gretchen Whitmer over her criticism of the federal response.

The Times poll shows neither candidate getting more than 50% support in any battleground state, suggesting that there’s still room for undecided voters to have an impact.

And state-level polling -- despite its key to forecasting the Electoral College result -- is generally less reliable than national polling. In 2016, national polls were largely accurate in predicting a popular vote win for Clinton but failed to anticipate Trump’s narrow victories in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Recent Battleground State Polls

Recent Battleground State Polls

Above composite created from 538 Latest Poll list.

Rating the Raters

538 rates Siena as A+, Marquette Law A/B, Quinnipiac B+, and Public Policy VB.

Margins of Error

Yes the polls were wrong in 2016, but more so at the state level where it mattered. 

But Trump barely won Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

All of those states were within the margin of error. 

Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are no longer within the margin of error. 

Florida and Arizona are borderline. Ohio and North Carolina are within the margin of error but Trump can still win.

Trump Can Still Win

I rate Biden's odds of winning at 70%. 

People do not understand these things, mostly because they don't want to, so let me spell out the math.

The Math

  • 70 ≠ 100
  • 30 ≠ 0
  • 30 ≠ 95 

Plug in any numbers you want, but if you think Trump is in the lead, think of yourself as mathematically challenged as well as having TDS Type II.

Factors

  1. There are just over 4 months to the election. 
  2. It is no longer that early (but it also is not irrecoverably late).
  3. Trump's path of victory is extremely narrow. 
  4. Biden's path of victory is wide. 
  5. The economy is in recession.
  6. Swing voters indicate they are sick of Trump. 
  7. No matter what you believe, polls show people strongly disapprove of Trump's handling of Covid.
  8. No matter what you believe, people strongly disapprove of Trump's handling of George Floyd.
  9. Focus on superficial issues like Lobsters is damn silly.
  10. Trump just cannot stay away from inane Tweets of all sorts.

Law and Order Tweets are Counterproductive 

If you disagree please see point 8 above.

ChinaVirus Tweets are Counterproductive

If you disagree please see point 7 above.  

Blatant Lie on Lobsters

Trump doubles down on nearly everything, including lobsters.

The fact of the matter is Trump destroyed the lobster industry with inane tariffs.

I Believe These Are Yours

I Believe These are Yours

Trump Lies From Lobsters to Ventilators

Bloomberg called out Trump Lies today in regards to sinking polls.

The president on Wednesday night announced some new initiatives to help the Maine lobster industry, and accompanied the plan with a false tweet claiming that “Pres. Obama destroyed the lobster and fishing industry in Maine. 

Sure, he can keep falsely claiming that Obama destroyed the lobster industry. But no one aside from his strongest supporters is going to believe him, and reporters are going to check the facts because they expect to prove him wrong.

After all, they’ve surely seen CNN’s reporting on Trump’s “wildly inaccurate” claims that Obama had left him no ventilators; it turns out that according to the administration’s own figures the number was actually 16,000 — or more than they’ve distributed so far during the coronavirus outbreak. And this is hardly the only tall tale that Trump has repeated.

For further discussion, please see Trump Threatens China Over Lobsters.

Fake News of the Day

On June 24, Trump proclaimed "States Testing Too Much". 

This was the Fake News of the Day

Texas was one of the 5 states Trump complained about. He shut down testing at some Texas sites including Dallas. 

Texas Halts Reopening Due to Coronavirus Surge

Today Texas was forced to Halt Reopening Due to Coronavirus Surge

Guess who prodded Arizona, Florida, and Texas to reopen early.

If you do not believe Biden is hugely in the lead, then you have TDS II.

But it's not over yet. 

70 ≠ 100

The one poll that matters is in November. 

But the way Trump is headed, it is far more likely Trump loses in a landslide than he wins at all.

Mish

Comments (100)
No. 1-28
Mr. Purple
Mr. Purple

Popcorn ready to go.

Flyoverstate
Flyoverstate

Realist
Realist

Assuming Biden wins in November, it will continue the trend of Democratic Presidents inheriting an economy in recession from their Republican predecessor. ( I think that every Republican president in the last 100 years has had a recession. ) Trump is following in those footsteps.

ToInfinityandBeyond
ToInfinityandBeyond

The Trumpster is headed for the dumpster. What are the odds on the Republican Party strong arming Trump to stand down for health reasons? Might be the only way the GOP can hang onto the Senate. There is a real risk that Trump will drag down the entire Republican Party in November.

valpal1
valpal1

Been voting for 40 years and never once was asked who I will vote for. Polls were very wrong in 2016. What's different this time?

Ted R
Ted R

And the Zogby Poll has Trump beating Biden. Which poll do you want to believe?

Augustthegreat
Augustthegreat

Many parts of the world probably prefer tRump to win the election, because they then get free circus show everyday

PT109
PT109

Polls were wrong in the past and the this time the Dems have really shown America how Crazy they are and will be if elected. The national odds are for Trump to win against a radical left party......they really are not Democrats anymore. Not enough people will come out for Biden who cannot even stream a full logical sentence from his mouth......he definitely has some form of dementia . Trump will surprise people with another win.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

This is less about Biden and more about Trump. I dare say anyone including the devil could be the opponent to Trump and Trump would be down in the polls. I see a bounce for Trump later this summer when the death rate us actually the same as the flu but it looks worse because of no vaccine. I expect that in fall Trump's numbers sink again as his tax returns are released and find some funny business with Russian oligarchs being part of his tax scam.

wxman40
wxman40

Expect to see the Libertarian candidate polling somewhere in double digits by September and October. By that time Biden will have as many electability issues on the table as Trump and a strong disgust will set in with the supposed "choices". I'm not real interested in the polls as they stand now because they don't include many factors that will be more pressing than Floyd or Covid by that time. Trump is definitely behind now but I don't see him losing FL or AZ this time. I also think that Michigan and Pennsylvania will be solid blue because that is Biden's strong area.

Sechel
Sechel

Trump's attempting to back into his bag of tricks and rely on demagoguery but the times have changed and the public by and large isn't buying it. If Trump keeps this up he'll be down to only his core base of say 35% and that's a losing proposition come November. Those Lincoln ads are really working too. Democrats have never mastered good ads and Conway is showing people how its done. They resonate with Independents and the few remaining traditional Republicans.

People also see that Trump's failed on virus handling. Doesn't matter what Trump says. Nobody is echoing Trump's message anymore. Public sees that infection rates are on the rise. Before it was in blue states like NY but today its hitting Trump country. If you live in Texas you know hospitals are near capacity. Blaming China is no longer working either.

Herkie
Herkie

We are down to 18 weeks till we vote. And the way things have been going that just means Trump has 18 weeks left to be an even worse disaster for himself. I don't put that much faith in polls, but if he did somehow pull off another poopular vote loss and electoral win given these polls as they are I suspect the margin of popular vote would be a lot larger than last time, and I would say that the US would erupt in riots that will make Floyd George rioting look like Mormon missionaries going door to door.

Sechel
Sechel

Trump won in 2016 because he was able to tap into hatred of a black president and fear of a woman president. basically trump has been about misogyny and racism but Biden is an old white guy like Trump so his attacks fail to resonate. Trump never wanted to run against Biden and now we see why.

autrader1
autrader1

I would expect Trump to be behind, after all we were told there are 120 million dead from coronavirus.

ToInfinityandBeyond
ToInfinityandBeyond

Once again we are left with two mainstream presidential candidates that leave a lot to be desired. At least Joe Biden is not “unelectable” like Hilary but he is definitely past his “sell by” date. On the other hand Trump is pushing himself into the “unelectable” column given his handling of the COVID crisis, his treatment of women and minorities and his general mean spiritedness. He is divisive at a time that calls for national unity. That said it is only a matter of time before the GOP roll out the attack dogs and go after Biden in the worst possible way. We also due for one of Biden’s classic “foot in mouth“ episodes. It is sad state of affairs that the American people are left with two flawed, some would say deeply flawed, presidential candidates. I would say let the best man win but this time round it is more like let the worst man lose. Right now that looks likely to be the Trumpster.

njbr
njbr

How could you vote against the most perfect person?

....President Donald Trump bragged about being “perfect” during a Fox News appearance that was broadcast on Thursday evening.

“I think I am the probably — a friend of mine said, ‘you have to be the most perfect person.’ Isn’t that true?” Trump asked.

Fox News anchor Sean Hannity then cut to a commercial break....

American footballer
American footballer

What happens when Trump and Biden meet on the debate stage?
Elections are about turnout. You can complain about an elected official all you like, but if their opponent does not motivate you enough to go to the polls, what difference does it make.
Questioning the polls is also valid for several reasons.

  1. faulty underlying premises at the heart of the statistical model used. Poll respondents do not translate into likely voters.
    2)Its too early and public mood shifts rapidly. Trump has proved to be like Teflon in 2016, will Biden fare as well in the event of an October surprise?
    3)Historical precedent: incumbents fare better in second term elections.
    4)A discrepancy in polls regarding the rest of the country and republican voters. He clearly still has the confidence of republican voters who are likely to more consistently respondent of their true voting intentions.
ToInfinityandBeyond
ToInfinityandBeyond

Can’t imagine the virus surge we are seeing in the swing states will help Trump that much.

EndTheFed
EndTheFed

Biden has had an easy time lately, content to sit in the shadows of his basement and let Trump screw up. Not a bad strategy, really. But the debates are going to be a train wreck for Biden and his feeble senile mind. Will his performances rattle voters enough to care - who knows? As it stands, I feel like half the Democrats are expecting Biden to win on name recognition, then step aside on the day after inauguration and let his black female VP have the reins.

bankrobber
bankrobber

Mish, it's clear that you've developed a disdain for Trump over his term. I get it the guy has his flaws but here's what I'd like to know, do you really think things get better with Biden and the Dems in control? You're leaving or have already left Illinois for Utah. You've seen firsthand what happens to states that are under liberal democratic control. I've seen you repeatedly bash Trump, so does this mean you're all in with Biden and everyone who comes along with him? I haven't seen you address this side of the equation and I'd be interested in seeing you post why you think things for our county improve under a Biden presidency.

PecuniaNonOlet
PecuniaNonOlet

“There goes your deliverer. Now go find your straw to make those bricks slave.”

FromBrussels
FromBrussels

The US will be heaven on earth with a (another) corrupt fuck at the helm ! No doubt about it ...

Art Izagud
Art Izagud

Trump is just a step backward from pathological Post-Modernity to healthy Modernity until we are ready for the emergent Meta Modernity. A bull in a china shop so to speak, getting back to the basics of Liberty until we can figure out a way to be more inclusive while keeping our freedoms.

njbr
njbr

Trump, when asked by Hannity about his priorities for a second term, said:

...Well, one of the things that will be really great, you know the word experience is still good. I always say talent is more important than experience. I’ve always said that. But the word experience is a very important word. It’s an — a very important meaning.

I never did this before. I never slept over in Washington. I was in Washington, I think, 17 times. All of a sudden, I’m president of the United States. You know the story. I’m riding down Pennsylvania Avenue with our First Lady and I say, ‘This is great. But I didn’t know very many people in Washington. It wasn’t my thing. I was from Manhattan, from New York. Now I know everybody, and I have great people in the administration.”

You make some mistakes. Like, you know, an idiot like Bolton. All he wanted to do was drop bombs on everybody. You don’t have to drop bombs on everybody. You don’t have to kill people....

BLUEWIN
BLUEWIN

Clintons own the democratic party . . . she is waiting in the wings . . . she will be called at the right moment . . . she has a vendetta against Trump . . .

wmjack
wmjack

Polls Ask Hillary about how reliable polls are

Jackn
Jackn

Trump is behind in all 17 of the most recent polls in 6 key battleground states. In addition, Trump trails in the most recent Ohio poll.

But, we his base are 100% behind him.

Once Flynn is cleared by the Justice department and he talks about the Obama regime conspiracies. I would not be surprised if Biden is not subpoenaed. That is the end of his campaign

Roto1711
Roto1711

If you think Biden winning the presidency over Trump you are fooling yourself. All you will get is more Left wing chaos and higher taxes. Look around at all the looting and destruction championed by the democrat party nationwide.


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