Trump in the Lead in 15 Battleground States? Don't Believe It

Mish

A recent poll shows Trump is in the lead in 15 key states. Let's investigate.

Hannity reports Joe in Trouble: Trump Beating Biden in 15 Battleground States

A shocking new poll spells big trouble for Democratic frontrunner Joe Biden; showing President Trump beating Biden in 15 battleground states that will likely decide the 2020 election.

583 People Surveyed 

The poll was conducted by SSRS for CNN. 

The CNN Poll was conducted by SSRS May 7-10 among a random national sample of 1,112 adults reached on landlines or cellphones by a live interviewer, including 1,001 registered voters and 583 voters in battleground states, defined as the 15 states decided by 8 points or less in 2016 -- Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Survey Math

583 people / 15 states = 38.9 people per battleground state.

Surveying less that 40 people per state then averaging them together is of course ridiculous. 

So, let's dive further into individual state polls.

Latest State Polls

  • May 12-21: North Carolina: Even
  • May 18-19: Michigan: Biden +6
  • May 11-17: Michigan: Biden +3
  • May 10-14: Pennsylvania: Biden +9
  • May 6-8: Wisconsin: Biden +9
  • May 1-5: Michigan: Biden +9
  • May 16-18: Georgia: Biden +1 
  • May 14-17: Florida: Biden +5
  • May 14-17: Florida: Biden +1
  • May 3-16: Virginia: Biden +12
  • May 9-11: Arizona: Biden +8
  • May 7-11: Colorado: Biden +13
  • May 11-13: Georgia: Trump +2
  • Florida: May 8-12: Biden +5
  • May 7-9: North Carolina: Trump +3

Those are not in date order. Rather, they are in the order in which FiveThirtyEight presented them.

The SSRS poll is clearly ridiculous, but that is what happens when you poll an average 39 people for 15 states then lump everything together.

Shocker

If you are looking for a shocker, look no further than Georgia. 

Georgia was not supposed to even be in play for Biden, yet the more recent of the two polls has Biden in the lead.

Not a Shocker

Hannity all of a sudden believes a poll sponsored by CNN. 

Mish

Comments (54)
No. 1-22
abend237-04
abend237-04

I agree, it's less than worthless.
Ann Coulter going off the deep end after Trump today. I agree with her, but the only thing worse is having Biden in the White House basement for four years as senile front man for the left.

davebarnes2
davebarnes2

When The Dumpster® implements/completes his voter suppression efforts there will only be 39 voters in Michigan. The "right" 39 voters.

gregggg
gregggg

Both candidates are incompetent, so does that really matter. I don't like anything the Republican-Democratic single party system has to offer. Jacob Hornberger is running under the Libertarian Party. He has much more to offer, which means if he actually got elected, he's be JFKed before he even got sworn in.

Sechel
Sechel

I'm getting the sense that CNN funds polling on the cheap and is more interested in getting an answer than about a sound poll. This isn't the first CNN sponsored poll that seems thin and based on questionable statistical methods

tokidoki
tokidoki

Winner? Obama.

Sechel
Sechel

CNN/SSRS polling showed Sanders beating Biden back in January. Something wrong in the methdology. This poll had 1156 respondents. Not sure what the issue is.

Montana33
Montana33

Thanks for exposing this terrible survey. I wonder if CNN just wanted a sensational headline. I have done a lot of phone banking and I can tell you that only old people answer the phone. I think it’s nearly impossible these days to get a representative sample from a phone survey unless you keep calling until you get a proper age distribution. I never pick up for unknown callers.

George Phillies
George Phillies

The 2020 Libertarian Party Presidential candidate is Jo Jorgenson.
I'm with her! Just say JO! JoJ2020.com

TimeToTest
TimeToTest

Trump will beat Biden. I don’t know why there is even a question.

Biden called black people stupid this week.

There is two people that Trump can beat. For some reason that’s the only two people the dems can put against him.

I personally think politics makes people stupid. What’s funny as hell is a don’t care for Trump.

But when the media dismisses a rape allegation after doing the opposite not to long ago, it might be time to read some different news guys.

aprnext
aprnext

Look, man: Trump is the only Real Democrat Candidate running. Let's get together behind this guy!

Herkie
Herkie

The fact that there are more than 5 or 6 swing states at all is a testiment to Trump's incompetence. Look, if Barry Goldwater's far right conservative Arizona is a swing state now (it is) then the GOP is in trouble. Another thing to note is no solidly blue state has changed status to a swing state. But, Texas is about as solid a red state as they come as well as being the largest red state by far, and many now have it in the swing state category. The cities are polling more purple/blue with each election.

It is time for the GOP to start changing it's brand, that does not mean getting dragged to the left by the progressives the way the democrats have been. But, they need to drop their overt contempt for science, their following of douchebags like McConnell and Trump, they need to stop wearing hate for immigrants on their sleeve as if it were something to be proud of.

There are a LOT of problems and it just is not necessary or productive to simply be the anti democrats. They need to come up with answers and reasons for their positions and policies. And they must MUST stop putting Wall Street and the 10% above the workers and 90%. They have to stop being so damned greedy, it has gone too far.

I can honestly see the day in the not too distant future when the centrists will be the progressives, the democrats will be the right, and god knows what kind of green/anarchists will be the left, with the republicans gone the way of the whigs.

Eighthman
Eighthman

So, Democrats got hysterical that Trump is mentally ill, corrupt, lying, elderly and touches women inappropriately. They struggled greatly but finally found a candidate who's competitive in all of those areas.

China vs US. Who wins? We are facing the Borg ..... and the Enterprise is no where to be found.

Gman007
Gman007

Whoever pays the most to ES&S and Dominion...that's who will get voted in. The rest is parlor dancing for the public...

Godloveme
Godloveme

They both sucks .we're In Deep SHIT.

Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab

Whoever the winner, it is not We the People.

Sequoia
Sequoia

Um lets see Biden has dementia.
He insulted the democratic black base.
Has a rape allegation hanging around his neck.
Bernie backers hate him.
Hunter...
He cannot do a single interview without looking like a fool.
Yeah he is going to win in a landslide.

Sequoia
Sequoia

If CNN is on the tv in an empty airport how many viewers is that?

channelstuffing
channelstuffing

Why would anyone vote to reelect Trump lol?He hasn't done chit except borrow (print)craploads of money and lavished it on Wall Street and his banker buddies,while the economy goes to complete chit! In all fairness I did say the exact same thing about Obama (verbatim lol)and that idiot (some how?)managed to get reelected which is why the country is in this unholy mess!

Tengen
Tengen

This will be the least important election of my lifetime. All that matters is whether or not the printer keeps going brrr in this ZIRP world.

MorningCoffee
MorningCoffee

Only polls I trust are the ones that got the 2016 election correct.....which basically means none.

The Hood
The Hood

Dear Mish,
You've been talking your position (against Trump) for a few months now and I think it's has clouded what up until recently have been been well grounded observations. It's the SWAMP dude and they've been on the run since before the 2016 elections and they haven't stopped because they can't, and each attack they fail at just drives more people into the Trump camp. Today, Trump is ahead across the board and every time the opposition or resistance raises their heads it's like wack-a-mole. Sure they come up somewhere else but they're getting the hell beat out of them.
We're halfway through a Revolution that officially started in 2017and is half over. When the November election is not recognized by a lot of the "resistance" due to the voter mail fraud that is to come we're going to move to Stage 3, which is when the shooting starts.
I think you need to take a hard look at the prejudices you've developed.. I need to share with you that I think you're way off base and you're not helping things at this point. Now if you just want to come out and state clearly you're against Trump, fine, that's your right. But to continue on with your slanted and prejudicial rants just re-enforces what is known as "Fake News" and adds to what is dividing America.
Be careful what you wish for Mish because you might get a lot more than you think. Like I said, if you don't like the man, just come out and say it, but I think you harm the nation and yourself with these jaded acts of yellow journalism.
I'm sure you're a good guy, but you're losing it man. Time to reel yourself in.
Best, Bill

AWC
AWC

It’s not he who casts the vote that matters, it’s he who counts the vote.