Trump in the Lead in 15 Battleground States? Don't Believe It
Hannity reports Joe in Trouble: Trump Beating Biden in 15 Battleground States
A shocking new poll spells big trouble for Democratic frontrunner Joe Biden; showing President Trump beating Biden in 15 battleground states that will likely decide the 2020 election.
583 People Surveyed
The poll was conducted by SSRS for CNN.
The CNN Poll was conducted by SSRS May 7-10 among a random national sample of 1,112 adults reached on landlines or cellphones by a live interviewer, including 1,001 registered voters and 583 voters in battleground states, defined as the 15 states decided by 8 points or less in 2016 -- Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.
583 people / 15 states = 38.9 people per battleground state.
Surveying less that 40 people per state then averaging them together is of course ridiculous.
So, let's dive further into individual state polls.
Latest State Polls
- May 12-21: North Carolina: Even
- May 18-19: Michigan: Biden +6
- May 11-17: Michigan: Biden +3
- May 10-14: Pennsylvania: Biden +9
- May 6-8: Wisconsin: Biden +9
- May 1-5: Michigan: Biden +9
- May 16-18: Georgia: Biden +1
- May 14-17: Florida: Biden +5
- May 14-17: Florida: Biden +1
- May 3-16: Virginia: Biden +12
- May 9-11: Arizona: Biden +8
- May 7-11: Colorado: Biden +13
- May 11-13: Georgia: Trump +2
- Florida: May 8-12: Biden +5
- May 7-9: North Carolina: Trump +3
Those are not in date order. Rather, they are in the order in which FiveThirtyEight presented them.
The SSRS poll is clearly ridiculous, but that is what happens when you poll an average 39 people for 15 states then lump everything together.
If you are looking for a shocker, look no further than Georgia.
Georgia was not supposed to even be in play for Biden, yet the more recent of the two polls has Biden in the lead.
Not a Shocker
Hannity all of a sudden believes a poll sponsored by CNN.