Trump Accuses Michigan and Nevada of Vote Fraud

Mish

Trump is upset at Michigan and Nevada over mail-in voting. Trump claims it is illegal.

In a pair of Tweets, Trump threatened to withhold money to Michigan and Nevada over mail-in-voting proposals. 

Michigan

Trump Deleted Michigan Tweet

Note: Trump deleted that Tweet. The Michigan Sec of State responded to it.

Link: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1263074783673102337

Nevada

Trump Accuses State of Nevada

In case Trump deletes the above Tweet as well, I captured an image.

Response From Michigan

Jocelyn Benson

Jocelyn Benson is Michigan's Secretary of State.  She sent applications, not ballots, like many Republican states.

Trump Repeats Unfounded Claims About Mail-In Voting

The NPR reports Trump Repeats Unfounded Claims About Mail-In Voting, Threatens Funding To 2 States

Elections are run by state and local governments, and it's unclear what legal means Trump would have to withhold funds from the states.

Benson, the Michigan secretary of state, responded to Trump's tweet noting that a number of states are taking the same action, including states with Republican election officials. In a statement, she added that absentee ballot "applications are mailed nearly every election cycle by both major parties and countless advocacy and nonpartisan organizations."

Trump's comments come two days after Ronna McDaniel, chair of the Republican National Committee, said she's fine with absentee ballot applications. Trump's objections come despite the fact that he voted by mail in Florida's recent primary and has voted absentee in previous elections.

Vote-by-Mail Neutral Impact

Stanford University research shows Voting by Mail Shows Neutral Partisan Effects.

In examining voter data in three states with staggered rollouts of vote-by-mail programs — California, Utah and Washington — the researchers found that the introduction of mail-in voting did not have an effect, on average, on the share of voter turnout for either Republicans or Democrats.

Researchers also found that expanding vote-by-mail does not appear to increase the vote share for candidates of either political party. Taken together, the researchers say their findings essentially dispel concerns that mail-in voting would cause a major electoral shift toward one party.

“Our paper has a clear takeaway: Claims that vote-by-mail fundamentally advantages one party over the other appear overblown,” the researchers stated in their working paper.

Vote by Mail is the Default in 5 States Already

State Vote by Mail Rules

Few States Are Prepared To Switch To Voting By Mail

538 reports Few States Are Prepared To Switch To Voting By Mail.

Converting to a vote-by-mail system is arduous and expensive, and most states simply aren’t set up to smoothly conduct a mail election with their present resources and laws.

Patchwork of State Rules

  • Only five states regularly conduct mail elections by default: Colorado, Hawaii, Oregon, Utah and Washington. 

  • Another 29 states (plus Washington, D.C.) give voters the option to vote by mail — also known as no-excuse absentee voting — in federal elections, but the burden is on the voter to request her ballot. 

  • The remaining 16 states still require voters to provide a valid excuse if they want to vote by mail, although this year, some states may accept concerns around the coronavirus as an excuse. (New Hampshire has already moved to do that for the general election.)

  • Three more, though, do allow counties to opt into mail voting, and nine more allow certain elections to be conducted by mail — although these are typically low-turnout, local elections, a far cry from the 2020 presidential race.

  • Additionally, several states may consider expanding the use of mail voting in November, at least if the coronavirus is still a threat. The secretaries of state of Arizona and Minnesota want to mail ballots to all registered voters in the fall, and bills to that effect have been proposed in Illinois and Massachusetts as well. But don’t hold your breath: There are some major obstacles standing in the way of states expanding mail voting.

Republican Objections and Hurdles

Republicans, led by President Trump, are strongly opposing efforts to convert to mail voting, arguing it boosts Democratic turnout or enables voter fraud. In reality, most studies have shown that mail voting does not advantage either party, and voter fraud is extremely rare, both in person and by mail. Indeed, Republican legislators have already spoken out against the proposals in Arizona and Minnesota, and President Trump and other Republicans have said they will oppose national efforts to encourage election reform.

But the bigger hurdle may be logistical. States can’t just snap their fingers and pull off a mail election on a dime; election administrators with whom we spoke agreed that preparing for a mail election is a challenge.

Earlier this month, Wisconsin election officials reported being overwhelmed by absentee-ballot requests and simply being physically unable to fulfill them all, which led to many voters never receiving their ballots. So mail voting also requires more staff. Then, when the ballots are returned, they need to be counted. For some jurisdictions, this means even more bodies

And, of course, all this — from printing ballots, to ordering envelopes, to hiring and training new workers, to buying new equipment — costs money. 

It is unclear what Trump means by cutting off funds or if any states will switch this years.

Perhaps Michigan and Nevada do, but it is unclear which party would benefit.

However, Trump's unfounded claims and threats likely do benefit the Democrats.

This is Not 2016

It's important to note that this is not 2016. Trump was never well liked, but Hillary was despised.

Yet, despite the fact that Hillary was despised, Trump barely won. Some people pat themselves on the back for predicting a Trump win. 

In reality, they were lucky.

No one could have foreseen that Comey would come out of the blue at the last moment with a blast at Hillary. I believe that tipped the election.

Devil You Know

The Polls Show Trump is Getting Trounced by the Haters.

“People like that choose the devil they don’t know,” said Christopher Nicholas, a longtime Republican consultant based in Pennsylvania. “What’s different in 2020? He’s the incumbent. So, he’s the devil you know … That’s why those numbers have flipped so precipitously from ’16 to '20, and there’s nothing inherent you can do about that, because Trump is the incumbent.”

“There’s no way Joe Biden will be as bad a candidate as Hillary Clinton.

Those Who Hate Trump and Biden Will Decide the Election

Although this is not 2016, there is one similarity: In the end, Those Who Hate Trump and Biden Will Decide the Election

Mish

Comments (31)
No. 1-15
Worker
Worker

I've done mail in voting before. Voted for both my wife and me. At her request. Even signed her name. I agree, the vast majority of the time it doesn't pay to cheat using mail in. Mainly because it's easy to verify if cheating took place. But if a large pct of ballots are mail in, it would be far easier to cheat because there's only a limited number of ballots they can test for cheating.

wmjack
wmjack

Democrats/Republicans are notorious regarding ballot handling (Miami and Chicago area)--most pole workers are Democrat/Republican as well(low income and/or government employees)--thus as many safe guards as possible to assure proper ballot handling and vote casting is imperative to defeat vote fraud --Question: Which party wants mail in ballots and vote harvesting ?

njbr
njbr

King Trump with imaginary powers....ease up on the bleach...

awc13
awc13

"“There’s no way Joe Biden will be as bad a candidate as Hillary Clinton.”

I would not bet on that using someone else's money

"what we need is more economic intercourse" - Joe Biden

awc13
awc13

I think you need to factor in ballot harvesting in some fashion, which voting by mail enables. ballot harvesting is a relatively new thing that won't show up in historical stats in any meaningful way

Personally, I think it is wrong for groups to target specific voters(usually democrat), knock on their doors, encourage them to vote and then take the ballot from them promising to turn it in for them.

WildBull
WildBull

I think that all the early voting and mail in voting except for absentee ballots with good reason are just begging for fraud. Same with computer voting machines without a paper trail. It is IMPOSSIBLE to secure them.

Sechel
Sechel

Michigan sent out applications not ballots just as many Republican states do. This isn't about voter fraud but voter suppression. Republicans do this dance regularly where they try to purge the voter databases as frequently as possible and make it harder for minorities to vote.

Ironically the biggest example in recent memory of voter fraud occurred in North Carolina by Republicans. It was huge, it was pervasive it had been going on for a long time and it was prosecuted.

The reason why states want mail in ballots is clear. It's a safety issue. There's a pandemic or did Trump forget?
This latest attempt by Trump to threaten states financially which is probably illegal is just way to blatant.

zurtkz
zurtkz

Here’s a prediction for the 2020 election: lowest voter turnout in history. Not from fear of covid. 2 worst candidates in history.
Every cycle is worse than the last

Realist
Realist

Here’s my prediction for the 2020 election; it doesn’t matter who wins. The US will continue its long decline from greatness; as long as the two parties continue to hate each other so much that they would rather let the country fall apart than agree to cooperate. Trump, the great Divider in Chief, has poisoned things even worse than any previous president. Biden would have to be a miracle worker to turn things around. And after watching him in action; he is no miracle worker. Still, I can’t imagine anyone being worse than Trump.

Mr. Purple
Mr. Purple

All good doggies heed their master's dog whistle. Roll over and beg good doggies!

Montana33
Montana33

I find it hilarious that Trump is threatening to cut off funding to a swing State in an election year. I'm sure that's going to be covered heavily in their local reporting. Thanks Trump!

Webej
Webej

American elections are rife with fraud and tricks. All agencies that monitor elections in various countries claim that controls in America are so poor it isn't even possible to monitor. Every election there are problems, whole bags of ballots missing in Detroit last election, ballot numbers don't add up, thousands of ballots found for dead people in LA, etc etc. Always controversies over voting machines, vote counting, voter suppression, ID's. Virtually no other OECD country has this level of noise, rumor, and problems. The political science literature is full of articles detailing statistical impossibilities in voting patterns.
It's high time Americans take an example from Venezuela how you can organize honest elections with audit trails. Even in the DCR or Syria in war time they manage to do a better job.

Herkie
Herkie

Oregon has voted by mail ONLY for decades. Now a few states expand access to mail in ballots and it is voter fraud?

Does this seriously need to be responded to?

It is going to be a very long year!

Webej
Webej

www.inquirer.com/news/voter-fraud-philadelphia-ward-leader-judge-of-elections-domenick-demuro-guilty-plea-20200521.html


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