Those Who Hate Trump and Biden Will Decide the Election

Mish

In 2016, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton were despised by many. Now it's Biden's turn.

The Haters Will Decide

There's plenty to dislike about both President Trump and presumed Democrat nominee Joe Biden. 

But once again it's the haters who will decide the election. And Polls Show Trump is Getting Trounced by the Haters.

Of the nearly 20 percent of voters who disliked both Clinton and Trump in 2016, Trump outperformed Clinton by about 17 percentage points, according to exit polls.

Four years later, that same group — including a mix of Bernie Sanders supporters, other Democrats, disaffected Republicans and independents — strongly prefers Biden, the polling shows. The former vice president leads Trump by more than 40 percentage points among that group, which accounts for nearly a quarter of registered voters, according to a Monmouth University poll last week.

“It’s a huge difference,” said Patrick Murray, who oversees the Monmouth poll. “That’s a group that if you don’t like either one of them, you will vote against the status quo. And in the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton represented more of the status quo than Trump did. In this current election, the status quo is Donald Trump.”

It’s not 2016 anymore, OK?” said Christopher Nicholas, a longtime Republican consultant based in Pennsylvania. “There’s no way Joe Biden will be as bad a candidate as Hillary Clinton.

Devil You Don't Know

“People like that choose the devil they don’t know,” Nicholas said, rejecting Clinton as a de facto incumbent and instead taking their chances with Trump. “What’s different in 2020? He’s the incumbent. So, he’s the devil you know … That’s why those numbers have flipped so precipitously from ’16 to '20, and there’s nothing inherent you can do about that, because Trump is the incumbent.”

Make America Great Again

Trump had an amazingly good campaign slogan in 2016 but we were guessing at what her would really do.

In contrast, does anyone even remember her slogan?

I don't but I could easily look it up. 

Hillary was uniquely despicable. We knew who Hillary was and her disasters as Secretary of State. 

In term of foreign policy, she even received praise from John McCain. How did that sound to the Democrat on the fence?

Let's flash forward to today.

Failed Promises

  1. Trump did not restore US manufacturing
  2. Trump belittled foreign leaders, even allies. 
  3. Trump did not shrink the deficit even before Covid-19 and now it's a disaster. 
  4. Trump's tariffs were a disaster from start to finish. 
  5. Trump handled Covid-19 poorly. 
  6. Trump cut taxes, but the benefits mostly went to the wealthy, not the middle class
  7. Trump did not drain the swamp. 

 If we can have just have a slight bit of honesty, no one can deny those things.

What America Has to Offer

Republican Hypocrites Ignore Trump's Lies, Praise Irresponsible Budget

"In 2016, Trump promised to totally wipe out $19 trillion in national debt over eight years in office. Republicans cheered. Today, hypocrite republicans cheer a trillion dollar deficit and a national debt projected to rise by about $9 trillion."

And long before the coronavirus hit, I wrote  Republican Hypocrites Ignore Trump's Lies, Praise Irresponsible Budget, so one cannot blame Covid for the miserable deficit.

Trump Will Easily Be Defeated in 2020, Perhaps a Landslide

On December 30, 2019 I proclaimed Trump Will Easily Be Defeated in 2020, Perhaps a Landslide

This Is Not 2016

It's important to note that this is not 2016. Trump was never well liked, but Hillary was despised.

Yet, despite the fact that Hillary was despised, Trump barely won. People pat themselves on the back for predicting a Trump win. In reality, they were lucky.

No one could have foreseen that Comey would come out of the blue at the last moment with a blast at Hillary. I believe that tipped the election.

A friend believes I am way too confident of this. But I never once expressed a confidence factor.

I will now. My confidence is in the low to mid 60% range. If you want a precise number, call it 64%. 

But most think Trump will win, so the percentage spread vs other bettors is huge.

Trump's Plus Column

  1. Trump did make two good Supreme Court picks but one was extremely controversial.
  2. He is not Joe Biden

Biden's Minus Column

  1. Sex allegations, but Trump has those too.
  2. Flip flopping, but Trump changes his mind day to day
  3. Age, but that goes against Trump and Bernie Sanders as well
  4. Life long bureaucrat
  5. Accused of dementia and it may be accurate
  6. Let's be honest, what the hell did he do? Obamacare? Please! Is that supposed to be a plus?

Biden's Plus Column

  1. He is not Donald Trump
  2. He is widely liked by blacks.
  3. He might die in office or be removed because of dementia

Biden's Alleged Dementia is a Plus

Voters will look ahead to what's next. 

And if Biden has dementia or other health concerns, Democrats can look forward to him serving less than a full term. 

For those who hate both candidates, Biden has the lesser chance of lasting 4 years.

Is that a bad thing?

Mish

Comments (89)
No. 1-35
davebarnes2
davebarnes2

"Accused of dementia and it may be accurate" is not a minus.
He resigns and VP [insert name here] becomes President.

"Obamacare? Please! Is that supposed to be a plus?"
Yes.
As someone who bought family coverage on his own from 2000 until today (for the wife), Obamacare is so much better than the previous system. Better coverage, no precondition turndowns, same prices.

"Sex allegations, but Trump has those too."
You can, but should not, compare a peanut to an elephant in discussing size.

numike
numike

The U.S. was once at the cutting edge of pandemic prevention. Then Big Pharma took over.

TimeToTest
TimeToTest

One word - debate

How in the world is Biden supposed to debate Trump? He can’t even catch softballs in interviews with his own people.

I don’t know what they Democrat’s will do when they have to admit he has dementia. Install another candidate at the last minute?

I don’t like many things about Trump but Biden is the worst. And then there is the rape thing.

Webej
Webej

Many haters tend to not vote, so they are stronger in opinion polls than at the polls.
Surely it will give some people pause to realize they would be handing a blank cheque to the DNC and some NPC they hoist into the saddle.
Voting is often more about getting people out to participate than who they favor. I think the participation dynamics will be less predictable than ever, especially with 40 million people with no livelihood.

Jdog1
Jdog1

The fact that these two are our choices for the most powerful position in our country shows just how broken our system is. Our country is no longer economically or politically viable.
I hate to say it, but the best thing that could happen to this country at this point would be a major depression, followed by a major revolution to eliminate the corporate strangle hold on our government, and abolish the Federal Reserve.
We are going to see a very serious upheaval in the not too distant future, and it is going to test our ability as a nation to survive.

Sechel
Sechel

wow more than few a pieces of this post seem familiar including a favorite George Carlin video of mine. :)

Some false equivalences however. If you're trying to make an argument. You fail on a few.

First sex allegations. No comparison. Trump has multiple credible allegations and is a known misogynist. Biden's a hugger and Reade's claim is quickly falling apart. There's no documentation , witnesses don't back her up and she backed out of a FOX interview when they provided Chris Wallace. It may well turn out it was contrived.

Second dementia. Biden stutters and has gaffes. That's not dementia. Contrast that with Trump's known Sociopath tendencies. The dementia claim comes from the same groups that claimed Hillary had six weeks to live.

Third flip-flopping. He's been around for decades. Positions change. Trump changes positions hourly sometimes.

So let's really be honest. Trump's team knows he has negatives. So just like in 2016 they know they can't repair that so the strategy will be to drive down Biden's negatives. and make the claim both men are just as bad with women, dementia you name it. There's no comparison. If you conclude that you're either not being honest or not paying attention.

This is not one of your better posts.

TonGut
TonGut

I agree with practically everything Mish has to say, but I am afraid I have to disagree strongly with Failed promise #6 commentary. I assume he is referring mainly to the corporate tax cut as benefitting the wealthy. Greg Mankiw and others are right, a corporate tax cut does not benefit the wealthy (read: owners/shareholder).

A tax on business is one of the most deceptive, confusing and underhanded kind. In fact, I think politicians have most voters convinced that they can tax a non-human entity like that without anybody at all paying for it. But let’s get one thing straight: all taxes are paid by people. Only people pay taxes! Business can’t pay taxes at all, they can only collect taxes—and the people they collect from are customers/workers. The owners don’t pay the tax because, in a competitive market, the required return on capital remains fairly constant.

Logically, a corporate tax cut drives up the return on capital, but only in the short term, which then attracts more capital. With more capital comes more supply and a lower price, which drives the return on capital back down to where it started. Consumer get most of the benefit. Some economists have confused the issue by arguing that workers benefit as well due to the greater production creating greater demand for labor. But I frankly don’t see the point in distinguishing a worker from a consumer. After all, you can’t consume unless you are a worker. Instead, I personally like to think of it as a decline in prices relative to incomes in general.

In others words, a corporate tax cut benefits all of us through increased productivity.

Rich people do not pay the corporate tax, it is consumers/workers that pay nearly all of it. I use “nearly“ because there are some situations where this is not the case (anticompetitive or monopolistic environments for example).

rafterman
rafterman

Don't underestimate the Russians!

ToInfinityandBeyond
ToInfinityandBeyond

The US conceded way too much to the healthcare and insurance industries with the implementation of Obamacare but on the whole it was a positive. The US healthcare system leaves a lot to be desired unless of course you are in the upper middle class and even then it is far less than perfect. For all the money that is spent on healthcare in this country the US infant mortality rates and life expectancies are no better than some third world countries. US infant mortality rates trail countries like New Caledonia, French Polynesia, Wallis and Futuna and even the much maligned British National Healthcare system. Anything that gives more affordable access to more of the population with no restrictions on pre existing conditions has to be on the whole positive. I agree Obamacare’s design and implementation was flawed but on the whole it was a plus for the country. Contrast that to the Republican’s position where they maligned Obamacare and promised a much better healthcare system. Despite have many years to plan for a better system the Republicans failed miserably when it came to designing and implementing a better system.

Kimo
Kimo

I see no indication that Biden is even running his own campaign. If he's President, just which unelected official(s) will be running the country? I find Taibbi comments on this subject far more useful.

BrainDamagedBiden
BrainDamagedBiden

"For those who hate both candidates, Biden has the lesser chance of lasting 4 years.

Is that a bad thing?"

One might say it depends on his vice president choice. However, given the state of the Democratic Party, it's more likely to be AOC than Jim Webb. So the answer is Yes, it's a very bad thing (i.e. the Dims winning).

Let's face facts, Trump is a 1980s Democrat. He's a big city liberal. Most of the huff about Trump is his style not the substance (well and the fact that he campaigned against the neocons, abd stupid wars. But Sheldon proceeded to buy him off). The fact that the 2020 Democratic Party fully embraces cultural Marxism, and socialism suggests a win for the Dims will be a significant step down the Road to Serfdom.

A vote for the Dims is a vote for Big Brother.

ToInfinityandBeyond
ToInfinityandBeyond

Mish - just curious. What would you consider to be the most significant positive accomplishment by the Trump administration over the past 4 years.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

Given there are more tossup states in the mix this time, I see higher potential for success in manipulating the outcome in multiple states and altering the outcome of the election. I think we are truly headed for a constitutional crisis come December.

Also I don't rule out health issues for Trump prior to the election given Covid-19 is working it's way through the White House.

LexRex1776
LexRex1776

Voting for Biden would be akin to buying a pig in a poke. No one knows who would be pulling the levers, but it certainly won't be the guy who isn't able to string together a couple of coherent sentences.

ToInfinityandBeyond
ToInfinityandBeyond

As opposed to Trump just being a plain old pig?

LexRex1776
LexRex1776

Trump and McConnell have been very successful in getting judges with an originalist bias appointed to the courts. In one term, almost as many have been appointed as were appointed by Obama in two terms. Also, the brightest spot in the Trump administration is Attorney General William Barr. Virtually single-handedly he may restore the rule of law to our nation by holding a number of Obama appointees and henchman accountable for using the FBI and the nation's intelligence apparatus for partisan purposes. Time will tell.

bradw2k
bradw2k

I'd never seen that clip, thank you! Carlin was brilliant. The fact that he could work perceptive contrarian socio-political critique into standup that is enjoyed by a mixed audience is remarkable.

Makes sense that hatred for Trump's childish bombast and unreason, which has been in our faces for 4 years, is going to eclipse "hatred" for Biden's speaking foibles. The office of the President has a history of word manglers -- annoying but apparently not unelectable.

ReadyKilowatt
ReadyKilowatt

Have to disagree with you on this one Mish. The party that gets the most of their core out to vote will win, just like the last 4 elections. There's 0 interest in getting people to cross the aisle anymore, just keep pushing on your core. Remember only about 40% of eligible voters bother anyway.

Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab

At this point, does it really matter? If you have not moved money offshore already, there is still time to do it.

Advancingtime
Advancingtime

While our memory has a way of removing rough edges from events we should not try to whitewash the past and rewrite history to present a different picture of what really happened. Because of the stark contrast in the demeanor and style of Trump and Obama, the media has "photoshopped" reality.

For years former President Obama remained more or less off the grid. Now that he has reemerged we should take a moment to review the Obama era. Some of this should rub off on Biden. The article below reminds us of all the scandals.

hmk
hmk

I hope you are correct people need to go to jail for that.

Sechel
Sechel

The idea that Donald Trump represents status quo could not be more inaccurate. Trump represents creative destruction as long as you forget about the building something new. So we destroy NATO without a replacement. We defund the WHO wihout an alternate strategy. Trump's so called record is undoing other's accomplishments. Nothing is built , nothing created. That's no status quo, that's chaos.

Sechel
Sechel

Interesting inversion on the Politico story. You turned it on its head. The first paragraph on the politico piece reads: "President Donald Trump is losing a critical constituency: voters who see two choices on the ballot — and hate them both"

Decided by the haters? I thought it was the swing states. Anyway. Trump knows he's incapable of improving his positives with voters. We're on to him. Sure his base likes likes him but they're not enough. So we'll see a repeat of the 2016 playbook. Attack Biden and drive down his negatives. Make him weak on China and Russia, a misogynist, a rapist why stop there. Will be harder this time because the strategy risks reminding voters of Trump's record and he won't have the Enquirer this time around. Trump was going to send Rudy to Ukraine to plant some false stories but that sort of blew up on him.

hhabana
hhabana

Great analysis Mish! I voted for Trump this last election and will not vote either candidate. I'm just disgusted with a lot of Trump's decisions regarding debt, deficits and foreign interventions. Also, I wish he would quit acting like a high school girl tweeting all the time. It gets on my nerves. I read one day on Drudge that he tweeted 100 times in one day! The guy has some pathological narcissistic issues which can be entertaining during election, but becomes overbearing as a Presidential leader.

jfs
jfs

Kudos to Mish for expressing a confidence factor regarding Trump loss:
"My confidence is in the low to mid 60% range. If you want a precise number, call it 64%."

At least, this is something that can be tracked over time. If a pundit makes a lot of predictions with confidence factors, you can see if they tend to be over confident over time or even directionally wrong.

If I were a pundit, I just think it's too soon to have much confidence one way or the other. It depends a lot on who the VP is, because voters are going to think that is who the President will soon be, if Biden is elected. Seriously, if Biden chooses Stacy Abrams, this is going to lower his odds.

Louis Winthorpe III
Louis Winthorpe III

Mish,

You'd be remiss if you fail to point out that Trump is in worsening stages of dementia. Jr. preemptively attacked Biden for dementia to deflect, but it is Trump they are worried about.

This opinion was written a year ago.

It's gotten worse since then. There are clear instances of muscle spasm and involuntary loss of control and slurred speech, not to mention recommendations to drink disinfectant.

gregggg
gregggg

TCW
TCW

I'll vote for Trump not because I like him but because he keeps our country strong militarily and he will put the right people in the courts. RBG probably won't last another term and I don't want Biden replacing her.

Herkie
Herkie

Those Who Hate Trump and Biden Will Decide the Election

Mish, I hate Trump AND Biden but I sincerely doubt I will get to decide anything.

BaronAsh
BaronAsh

More like 'decided by those who hate Trump enough to vote for Biden, and those who like Trump enough to vote for him.'

Anyone who thinks Biden is a suitable candidate for President is demented. That's not as insulting as it sounds, given how essentially demented nearly all political news coverage and discussion has become the past twenty years, but even more so since the 2016 election. So much outright lying and hyberbole distorts the mind, so little exposure to and contemplation of ordinary, common sense realities, of the truth, has a deleterious effect on the spirit.

Another way of looking at it might be (especially if they pick a more normal candidate at the Dem convention):

  1. Those who are thirsting for more Swamp Draining and change will vote Trump.
  2. Those who have 'change fatigue' and want a return to normalcy, even if that means lots of bad stuff going down behind the scenes but we don't have to contemplate it all the time and the news coverage will stop being so nasty, hysterical and scary. So a 'we are tired of all the endless drama' vote. They will vote against Trump because as long as he is President, the media will continue to spread hatred and hysteria, guaranteed.
WildBull
WildBull

@BaronAsh News coverage is equally distorted with regard to COVID-19. It makes me begin to think there is a connection beyond bad journalism. It is all beginning to stink the same.

killben
killben

What happens if Biden is certified with dementia just before the elections? Does Trump get a walkover?

Chonky
Chonky

There is no such thing as "alternative facts". There are FACTS and then there are the propagandist lies put out by dumbbald chump and the like.

There is no such thing as "fake news". There is NEWS and then there are the propagandist lies put out by dumbbald chump and other purveyors of hatred.

There is no such thing as the "alternative right".

The hate propaganda put out by xenophobic, racist, anti-female, misogynists is not an ALTERNATIVE to philanthropic, humanitarian ideas and truly moral self-conduct.

There is no such thing as "antifa".
There are DECENT AND MORAL PEOPLE who stand against the putrid propagandist lies of dumbbald chump and other hate-mongers.

Those decent people are not violent. Any measures they take are taken simply as self defence against violence coming from nazis, white supremacists and other bigoted xenophobic organisations.