The Odds Trump is Convicted in the Senate Just Increased
Trump Will Be Impeached on Wednesday
President Trump will be impeached for the second time on Wednesday.
A number of key Republicans will join Democrats in the impeachment.
Liz Cheney Chimes In
“We just had a violent mob assault the U.S. Capitol in an attempt to prevent those from carrying out our Constitutional duty. There is no question that the President formed the mob, the President incited the mob, the President addressed the mob. He lit the flame.”
Cheney wrote that in The Mob Will Not Prevail on January 6.
Today Cheney repeated that message adding I Will Vote To Impeach The President.
"Much more will become clear in coming days and weeks, but what we know now is enough. The President of the United States summoned this mob, assembled the mob, and lit the flame of this attack. Everything that followed was his doing. None of this would have happened without the President. The President could have immediately and forcefully intervened to stop the violence. He did not. There has never been a greater betrayal by a President of the United States of his office and his oath to the Constitution.
"I will vote to impeach the President."
Bipartisan Support Increases
Pelosi Names Impeachment Team
Representative Adam Kinzinger
"There is no doubt in my mind that the President of the United States broke his oath of office and incited this insurrection. If these actions--the Article II branch inciting a deadly insurrection against the Article I branch--are not worthy of impeachment, then what is an impeachable offense?"
Amendment 14, Section 3
President Trump on Tuesday showed no contrition or regret for instigating the mob that stormed the Capitol and threatened the lives of members of Congress and his vice president, saying that his remarks to a rally beforehand were “totally appropriate” and that the effort by Congress to impeach and convict him was “causing tremendous anger.”
“People thought what I said was totally appropriate,” Mr. Trump told reporters at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland, en route to Alamo, Texas, where he was set to visit the wall along the Mexican border.
Mr. Trump’s defiance came despite near universal condemnation of his role in stoking the assault on the Capitol, including from within his own administration and some of his closest allies on Capitol Hill.
Impeachment a Given, What About Conviction?
Trump will be the first president impeached for a second time.
It takes a 2/3 majority in the Senate to convict Trump.
McConnell Pleased About Impeachment
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is reportedly Pleased About Impeachment, believing it will be easier to purge Trump from the G.O.P.
Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican leader, has told associates that he believes President Trump committed impeachable offenses and that he is pleased that Democrats are moving to impeach him, believing that it will make it easier to purge him from the party, according to people familiar with his thinking.
Representative Kevin McCarthy of California, the minority leader and one of Mr. Trump’s most steadfast allies in Congress, has asked other Republicans whether he should call on Mr. Trump to resign in the aftermath of the riot at the Capitol last week, according to three Republican officials briefed on the conversations.
While Mr. McCarthy has said he is personally opposed to impeachment, he and other party leaders have decided not to formally lobby Republicans to vote “no,” and an aide to Mr. McCarthy said he was open to a measure censuring Mr. Trump for his conduct. In private, Mr. McCarthy reached out to a leading House Democrat to see if the chamber would be willing to pursue a censure vote, though Speaker Nancy Pelosi has ruled it out.
List of Republicans Willing to Convict Trump
Two days ago I reported Add Toomey to the List of Republicans Willing to Impeach Trump
Republican Senators Willing to Take a Stand
- Senator Pat Toomey (R., PA) cites impeachable offenses.
- Senator Ben Sasse (R., NE.) said Trump violated his oath of office.
- Senator Lisa Murkowski (R., AK) became the first Republican senator to call for Mr. Trump to resign.
- Senator Mitt Romney (R., UT) publicly blasted Trump.
That was my list then. I believe we can add McConnell (R., KY) to the list.
Sue Collins (R., ME) won't comment but I suggest she is a strong favorite.
Still that is only 6.
Even if the trial takes place after January 20, and assuming all 50 democrats go along, that is only 56.
McConnell is on record saying there is no time to do this before the 20th.
I suspect his real reason may not be a matter of time, but rather to increase the likelihood of conviction.
Still 56 out of 100 is only 56%. It takes 67%.
But 67% of what?
Article I, Section 3, Clauses 6 and 7 provide:
The Senate shall have the sole Power to try all Impeachments. When sitting for that Purpose, they shall be on Oath or Affirmation. When the President of the United States is tried, the Chief Justice shall preside: And no Person shall be convicted without the Concurrence of two-thirds of the Members present. Judgment in Cases of Impeachment shall not extend further than to removal from Office, and disqualification to hold and enjoy any Office of honor, Trust or Profit under the United States; but the Party convicted shall nevertheless be liable and subject to Indictment, Trial, Judgment and Punishment, according to Law.
Two-Thirds of the Members Present
Would any Republican Senators sit this out? Is abstention sufficient?
If there was a delay until January 21, and say there were another 4 Republicans willing to go along. it would take 12 Senator to be not present for Trump to be convicted.
I said the odds rose, and they did, simply because of McConnell.
But the odds rose from what to what?
One reason they may be higher than most think is many senior Republicans are genuinely and rightfully sick of Trump.
Some will go along for the ride if the number is close enough. They be unwilling to go out on a limb unless the numbers are there. If the vote did cross the line, there could be an amusing pile on so the Senators can all protect each other.
My guess now is Trump is not convicted, but it is far from a zero chance. I am not privy to what pressure McConnell may be applying and to whom.
What About Censure?
As noted above, some Republicans favor Censure over impeachment.
A censure is a formal statement of disapproval, sometimes referred to as a condemnation or denouncement. It's provided by Article I, section 5 of the US Constitution. Unlike impeachment, censure requires a simple majority vote — much easier to come by than a two-thirds majority, particularly this year in the Senate.
On March 28, 1834 the Senate Censured President Andrew Jackson in a fight over the survival of the Bank of the United States.
It is the only presidential censure in history. Curiously, on January 16, 1837, the Senate Reversed the Censure of Andrew Jackson.
On January 16, 1837, the secretary of the Senate carried the 1834 Journal into the Chamber, drew careful lines around its text, and wrote, “Expunged by order of the Senate.”
Censure won't remove Trump but it would be an unusual move of disrespect.