The Odds Trump is Convicted in the Senate Just Increased

Mish

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is reportedly "Pleased About Impeachment", believing it will be easier to purge Trump from the G.O.P.

Trump Will Be Impeached on Wednesday

President Trump will be impeached for the second time on Wednesday. 

A number of key  Republicans will join Democrats in the impeachment.

Liz Cheney Chimes In

“We just had a violent mob assault the U.S. Capitol in an attempt to prevent those from carrying out our Constitutional duty. There is no question that the President formed the mob, the President incited the mob, the President addressed the mob. He lit the flame.

Cheney wrote that in The Mob Will Not Prevail on January 6. 

Today Cheney repeated that message adding I Will Vote To Impeach The President.

"Much more will become clear in coming days and weeks, but what we know now is enough. The President of the United States summoned this mob, assembled the mob, and lit the flame of this attack. Everything that followed was his doing. None of this would have happened without the President. The President could have immediately and forcefully intervened to stop the violence. He did not. There has never been a greater betrayal by a President of the United States of his office and his oath to the Constitution.

"I will vote to impeach the President."

Bipartisan Support Increases

Pelosi Names Impeachment Team

Representative Adam Kinzinger 

"There is no doubt in my mind that the President of the United States broke his oath of office and incited this insurrection. If these actions--the Article II branch inciting a deadly insurrection against the Article I branch--are not worthy of impeachment, then what is an impeachable offense?"

Amendment 14, Section 3

No Contrition

President Trump on Tuesday showed no contrition or regret for instigating the mob that stormed the Capitol and threatened the lives of members of Congress and his vice president, saying that his remarks to a rally beforehand were “totally appropriate” and that the effort by Congress to impeach and convict him was “causing tremendous anger.”

“People thought what I said was totally appropriate,” Mr. Trump told reporters at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland, en route to Alamo, Texas, where he was set to visit the wall along the Mexican border.

Mr. Trump’s defiance came despite near universal condemnation of his role in stoking the assault on the Capitol, including from within his own administration and some of his closest allies on Capitol Hill.

Impeachment a Given, What About Conviction?

Trump will be the first president impeached for a second time.

It takes a 2/3 majority in the Senate to convict Trump.

McConnell Pleased About Impeachment

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is reportedly Pleased About Impeachment, believing it will be easier to purge Trump from the G.O.P.

Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican leader, has told associates that he believes President Trump committed impeachable offenses and that he is pleased that Democrats are moving to impeach him, believing that it will make it easier to purge him from the party, according to people familiar with his thinking.

Representative Kevin McCarthy of California, the minority leader and one of Mr. Trump’s most steadfast allies in Congress, has asked other Republicans whether he should call on Mr. Trump to resign in the aftermath of the riot at the Capitol last week, according to three Republican officials briefed on the conversations.

While Mr. McCarthy has said he is personally opposed to impeachment, he and other party leaders have decided not to formally lobby Republicans to vote “no,” and an aide to Mr. McCarthy said he was open to a measure censuring Mr. Trump for his conduct. In private, Mr. McCarthy reached out to a leading House Democrat to see if the chamber would be willing to pursue a censure vote, though Speaker Nancy Pelosi has ruled it out.

List of Republicans Willing to Convict Trump

Two days ago I reported Add Toomey to the List of Republicans Willing to Impeach Trump

Republican Senators Willing to Take a Stand

  1. Senator Pat Toomey (R., PA) cites impeachable offenses.
  2. Senator Ben Sasse (R., NE.) said Trump violated his oath of office.
  3. Senator Lisa Murkowski (R., AK) became the first Republican senator to call for Mr. Trump to resign.
  4. Senator Mitt Romney (R., UT) publicly blasted Trump.

That was my list then. I believe we can add McConnell (R., KY) to the list. 

Sue Collins (R., ME) won't comment but I suggest she is a strong favorite.

Still that is only 6. 

Even if the trial takes place after January 20, and assuming all 50 democrats go along, that is only 56.

McConnell's Stand

McConnell is on record saying there is no time to do this before the 20th.

I suspect his real reason may not be a matter of time, but rather to increase the likelihood of conviction. 

Still 56 out of 100 is only 56%. It takes 67%. 

But 67% of what? 

Article I, Section 3, Clauses 6 and 7 provide:

The Senate shall have the sole Power to try all Impeachments. When sitting for that Purpose, they shall be on Oath or Affirmation. When the President of the United States is tried, the Chief Justice shall preside: And no Person shall be convicted without the Concurrence of two-thirds of the Members present. Judgment in Cases of Impeachment shall not extend further than to removal from Office, and disqualification to hold and enjoy any Office of honor, Trust or Profit under the United States; but the Party convicted shall nevertheless be liable and subject to Indictment, Trial, Judgment and Punishment, according to Law. 

Two-Thirds of the Members Present

Would any Republican Senators sit this out? Is abstention sufficient?

If there was a delay until January 21, and say there were another 4 Republicans willing to go along. it would take 12 Senator to be not present for Trump to be convicted.

I said the odds rose, and they did, simply because of McConnell. 

But the odds rose from what to what? 

One reason they may be higher than most think is many senior Republicans are genuinely and rightfully sick of Trump. 

Some will go along for the ride if the number is close enough. They be unwilling to go out on a limb unless the numbers are there. If the vote did cross the line, there could be an amusing pile on so the Senators can all protect each other.

My guess now is Trump is not convicted, but it is far from a zero chance. I am not privy to what pressure McConnell may be applying and to whom. 

What About Censure?

As noted above, some Republicans favor Censure over impeachment.  

A censure is a formal statement of disapproval, sometimes referred to as a condemnation or denouncement. It's provided by Article I, section 5 of the US Constitution. Unlike impeachment, censure requires a simple majority vote — much easier to come by than a two-thirds majority, particularly this year in the Senate.

Censure History

On March 28, 1834 the Senate Censured President Andrew Jackson in a fight over the survival of the Bank of the United States.

It is the only presidential censure in history. Curiously, on January 16, 1837, the Senate Reversed the Censure of Andrew Jackson. 

On January 16, 1837, the secretary of the Senate carried the 1834 Journal into the Chamber, drew careful lines around its text, and wrote, “Expunged by order of the Senate.”

Censure won't remove Trump but it would be an unusual move of disrespect. 

Mish

Comments (55)
No. 1-20
Mish
Mish

Editor

Apparently just a mention of the Gateway Pundit without a link gets your comment deleted by the spam filter that I do not control.

I just undeleted a comment by Rocky Racoon and about a half-dozen others I do not know what the spam filter caught.

If your comment is missing and it was not a link to nonsense I will undelete it if I spot it.

Tengen
Tengen

Slightly OT, but here is a Twitter thread from a guy who attended the Capitol protests as an observer with his wife (and stayed outside the building). He summed it up in 22 tweets along with some pics, interesting reading!

AshH
AshH

Insighting an insurrection was horrendous, shocking, and deadly, but don't forget the GA call just days before too. The GA call was clearly criminal, whereas insightment is legally more difficult to prove.

It's also possible that the investigation between impeachment and the Senate trial will show some really shocking stuff, making conviction more likely. Did Trump and the DoD intentionally reject requests for more security to make the attempt more likely to succeed? Did members of congress help in the planning?

Agave
Agave

Between the Defense Department's strongly worded memo today, the FBI press conference comment that there are still "shocking" details to be revealed plus their mention of sedition, the inferences of groups being led in ‘Reconnaissance’ Tours by certain House representatives on Jan 5th, the day before the insurrection, as described in the link below, and McConnell's abrupt change of position on impeachment - this whole story is taking on an increasingly dark turn.

I'm avoiding further speculation at this point, but things are starting to get pretty hinky it seems.

AshH
AshH

A presidential election, 64 court cases, 2 Georgia Senate seats, a failed coup attempt, at least 2 Twitter accounts, a Facebook account, an entire social media platform (Parler), a YouTube channel for a week, and now a 2nd impeachment. This guy must really like losing!

Kimo
Kimo

The irony of Trump, as New Yorkers found out too late, is that he thrives with negative publicity. As the only President to be convicted, 50 years from now he will have all the attention Democrats are about to adorn on him. Your great grandchildren will read his speeches, and wonder if abandoning the policy of "America First", was a pivotal point in our decline. Et tu Pence?
People will reread the Speech of the Mall, see the great injustice, and wonder about the power hallucination.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

They need to remove the senators that objected to agreed to the objection. Also the Sergeant at Arms said anyone removing their mask will be escorted out of the senate. I hope the Republican party tears itself apart. My wife was a lifelong Republican until Charlottesville. Now she says she will never vote for a single Republican ever again.

Sechel
Sechel

They could get 20 Republicans in the Senate. GOP needs a divorce. Voting impeachment is the best chance to rid them of the Trump curse. Otherwise in 2022 and 2024 Trump is around impacting elections. Trump is seen as the reason the GOP lost Georgia. They need to reduce the likelihood that Trump is able to negatively impact the GOP going into both. Trump is toxic. They need to get him the hell out of there. Trump can't run himself but he can still impact them. This is McConnell making the political calculation that impeachment rids them of Trump more than ignoring him does.

Doug78
Doug78

Principal Counsel Michael Beller of PBS just got fired for his comments.

amigator
amigator

Cheny, McConnell and Pelosi all against you, you must be doing something right!

Sechel
Sechel

McConnell is betting that the wound heals faster if the scab gets removed in one quick shot

Doug78
Doug78

"So get the violence over with as soon as possible; that way there'll be less time for people to taste its bitterness and they'll be less hostile. Favours, on the other hand, should be given out slowly, one by one, so that they can be properly savoured. (8.8)"

The Prince

by Niccolò Machiavelli

Rocky Raccoon
Rocky Raccoon

We had the "perfect phone call" last year. Now just days before the process begins, Trump is bragging about the speech in the same manner. No remorse and no sorrow for the police officer who was killed by Trump's cult members. We also learn that Trump, our great "Christian" president, was trying to force Mike Pence's hand with the words "Mike, you can either be a patriot or you can be a pussy," as he begged Pence to overturn the election.

I used to believe George Carlin was right about elected officials. "Garbage in. Garbage out." Clearly, on January 20, 2021, it's just GARBAGE out.

Sechel
Sechel

To those that think Impeachment would be divisive and we need to heal.

Hitler was found guilty of treason and sentenced to five years in prison after the Beer Hall Putsch. He served nine months before he was pardoned in the name of "unity and healing." And after that, as we all know, everything was fine.

Frilton Miedman
Frilton Miedman

Seems the pivotal moment for McConnell was his wife leaving Trump's admin.

My guess, if McConnell shares the nature of her reason for leaving with his brethren in the GOP, Trump's toast.

I'm anxious to hear details myself, McConnell's no Romney, it had to be drastic, whatever triggered her to leave.

njbr
njbr

Hopefully these "constitutional originalists " begin to realize that we have run to the end-point of their looney theories that were begun under the Clinton administration.

The courts have failed to support those ideas.

The legislature has failed to support those ideas.

We are now preparing for a battle in the streets between the conspiracy idiots and the US military.

The conspiracists and their trembly-lipped adoration of the military is about to run squarely into the US military that has directly warned its troops that the conspiracists are wrong and are seditionists.

The troops have been warned by their leadership under the US military law....A person who is found guilty of attempted mutiny, mutiny, sedition, or failure to suppress or report a mutiny or sedition shall be punished by death or such other punishment as a court-martial may direct.

So in front of the troops, they will have a raving mob of armed seditionists who may end up killing them, and behind them they have the military punishment system that can execute a troop found guilty of failure to supress sedition.

At this point, there is no choice but to have the military respond forcefully.

This is where we are at in America.

It is time these effn Republicans, who have led us to this point through 3 decades of lies, realize that a failure to uphold truth and Consitituion will indeed take down the courts, the legislature and the military.

Guess who is left then?

Ohhh, that the feature, not the bug.

njbr
njbr

A Defense official told CBS News that the threat level at the Capitol is "very high" right now – "higher than has been reported". David Martin reports approx. 2,000 National Guard at the Capitol right now and they are authorized to carry arms.

PecuniaNonOlet
PecuniaNonOlet

Let’s assume Trump is impeached and he is banned from holding office again but runs in 2024 and gets a significant vote, what is the possible outcome in this scenario?

What if he somehow wins electoral vote or popular vote?

I know it is far fetched scenario but we are in interesting times.

Eddie_T
Eddie_T

McConnell is playing Pontius Pilate....willing to go along as long as he doesn’t get too much blowback.

Witness the complete lack of a formal statement by McConnell condemning Trump...instead he “leaks” his guidance, being careful not to be too specific, in case he wants to suddenly go some different direction.

The guy is a piece of work.

Eddie_T
Eddie_T

Listened to a bit of the impeachment proceedings in the car at lunch...same old partisan bullshit, from both sides of the aisle.

And this is supposed to be a trial? There is no way.


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