Super Tuesday Lesson: People Don't Want a Socialist
Super Tuesday was a disaster for Bernie Sanders and mainstream media is shocked.
I am not shocked. It was my call.
Before polls closed and before any exit poll was made, I wrote Peak Bernie: Kiss His Chances Goodbye
That is the kind of call that can easily make one look like a fool. But I made it because I am a huge believer in momentum and Joe Biden had it.
The endorsement of Joe Biden by Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar sealed the deal.
I expected Pete would drop out after South Carolina and he did. I also expected Amy to drop out and endorse Biden, but not until after Super Tuesday.
With that unexpected event (timewise, not eventwise) I addressed the question How Did Klobuchar Dropping Out Impact Super Tuesday?
Then when last minute polls came in I upped my forecast to an outright win for Biden.
Final Super Tuesday Projection
I rather doubt even the Biden camp had him winning outright.
I have not seen the delegate counts this morning but it's clear that I way over-estimated Warren and Bloomberg.
Did Klobuchar Make a Deal with Biden?
Dropping out ahead of Super Tuesday was a brilliant move on the part of Klobuchar. That propelled Biden in Minnesota and Massachusetts as well.
Two days ago I asked and answered Klobuchar Drops Out: Did She Make a Deal with Biden?
A few hours ago I penned Fearless Forecast: What to Expect on Super Tuesday. But this has the potential to dramatically affect Super Tuesday tomorrow.
For starters, I am flipping my Texas forecast from Sanders to Biden. I will work out new totals shortly.
To answer my question: Did she cut a deal for VP with Biden? I say yes.
You could have bought Biden for pennies in Minnesota and Massachusetts turning $800 into $20,000 or so.
No I, did not do it, but I did buy Biden at $0.08 and Bloomberg at $0.23. The latter I can kiss goodbye.
I expect "We Waz Robbed" howls from the Bernie crowd today.
But this was not a party conspiracy that did Bernie in. Rather, this country is just not ready for a socialist.
Key Bernie Mistake
Bernie made a key mistake. He appealed to the base.
That move gets you rousing support an raucous crowds. But beneath the surface, support is shallow.
I was surprised to see Nate Silver blow this so badly.
"Appealing to the base is ridiculous. Where is the base going? You need to appeal to the independents and the moderates. That is why Trump won in 2016 and one of the reasons he will lose in 2020."
Yey, Bernie drew huge enthusiastic cheering crowds. But he had no appeal to the swing voters and moderates.
I read time and time again about the youth vote. Sanders himself promotes the idea. But that is not where the election will be won or lost.
For starters, millennials are four years older now. Many of them also learned a lesson from staying on the sidelines in 2016.
Even if some Sanders supporters stay away, it's important to understand the math.
- Every Bernie lover who gets disgusted and does not vote costs the Democrat 1 vote.
- Every person who cannot stand voting for a socialist and stays away also costs the Democrats 1 vote.
- Every moderate or independent who votes for Trump instead of Sanders costs the Democrats 2 votes.
Understanding the Base
I expect points 1 and 2 net worse for the Democrats but call it roughly equal. Nominating Sanders would be a huge mistake because of point 3.
People figured that out even if mainstream media and the Sanders "appeal to the base" strategists couldn't.
By the way, "base" in this case means a group of radical socialists and Marxists. Label Bernie a radical socialist and Warren a Marxist.
In case you forgot, the same radical silliness is why Jeremy Corbyn lost to Boris Johnson in a UK Prime Minister landslide (called early in this corner when analysts thought it would be close).
It was a huge "unexpected" blowout to the most commentators. Same thing happened last night when multiple CNN analysts proclaimed "Texas was the surprise of the night."
Apparently it was, but not to me.
Here's one final Super Tuesday takeaway: Billionaires cannot buy elections.
That's a good thing.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock