Spotlight Iowa: Monmouth University Has Biden 4 Points Ahead

Mish

In Iowa, Biden is ahead by 4 points in the presidential election and Greenfield by 4 points for an Iowa Senate set.

Iowa Projection Analysis

Why is it 4 points? 

For polls conducted on the same date by the same pollster, average the Likely Voters (LV) and ignore the Registered Voters (RV). See yellow highlights in the above chart.

538 Current Projection

How 538's Iowa Forecast Changed

Recent Polls

Which Polls Iowa

538 still has Iowa in Trump's column, but barely.

Fearless Forecast

My Fearless Election Forecast October 13

In my My Fearless Election Forecast and Range of Outcomes on October 13, I put Iowa, Georgia, and Ohio in Biden's column.

I expect all three to break for Biden unless he makes a major gaffe in the next debate, catches Covid, or some other unexpected event happens. 

I expected the polls to change for Biden, and Iowa just did.

Silver waits for the polls, I will take a reasonable shot when I see one. 

I expected the Monmouth poll and there it is.

Confidence Level

Q: How confident am I of Iowa, Ohio, and Georgia?

A: Not very and neither is Silver. 

Silver has Iowa 54-46 Trump, Georgia as 52-48 Trump, and  Ohio as 50-50.

I have all three as 55-45 Biden. 

Eight Reasons 

  1. Trump keeps making gaffes. I expect him to keep making them. 
  2. Polling momentum is in Biden's favor,
  3. Early voting is in Biden's favor. 
  4. Trump is running out of money. Down the stretch Biden has over twice as much money as Trump.
  5. Covid, Covid, Covid. The attack on Fauci by Trump was just plain stupid. 
  6. I suspect Trump made a fool of himself on 60 minutes but we will have to wait and see.
  7. In 2016 Trump turned the campaign into a referendum on Hillary. In 2020 Trump  turned the campaign into a referendum on him. 
  8. The Biden camp is clearly energized, not for Biden, but against Trump.

Despite the Monmouth poll, my odds did not change because I already expected such a result by a high quality pollster.

If we see further momentum in Biden's favor, expect to see Nate Silver at something like 55-45 Biden for Iowa, Georgia, and Ohio as well.

Poll of the Day

Addendum

Siena College / The New York Times Upshot, another A+ rated pollster has Biden +3 in Iowa. The poll as Oct 18-20.

No surprise in this corner.

Mish

Comments (20)
No. 1-10
njbr
njbr

No self-awareness at all with Trump.

Repeat rallies in Iowa at a time when over 20% of CV test come back positive in Iowa.

Record rates, hospitalizations, and deaths.

Ignore it all.

Ignore the derecho effects and complain instead about the Iowa media not reporting on his efforts on a Nobel award.

EGW
EGW

I get polling organization calls or texts on occasion. The person I tell them I'm voting for is never the person I actually plan to vote for. I'm sure I'm not the only one who tries to screw with their data. Since we are making predictions, my prediction is 263 Biden, 274 Trump, but if any of my predictions go wrong for Trump it will be a clear Biden win. https://www.270towin.com/maps/QpQ8k

Sechel
Sechel

13 days till November 3rd. These are not insurmountable deficits but considering the short time left and the lack of cash not an easy task either. Donald seems unfocused today. He's been busy tweeting photos of Leslie stahl for the past hour, still fuming over a 60 minutes interview that went in a direction he didn't like

Sechel
Sechel

I'm not questioning whehter Biden doesn't win Iowa but I am questioning the validity of using a likely voter poll. Voting is up far above 2016 and I think we may find that looking at registered voters may be more telling. We seem to be breaking all sorts of records with regard to voter participation.

Eddie_T
Eddie_T

Biden is not going to need Iowa...at least I am beginning to think that way.

Florida is the one that looks critical to me....but it might not be critical either, if we get some of those flips.

Rocky Raccoon
Rocky Raccoon

I admire Iowa's political independence as they tend to vote for what they believe is best for the state. It's rare these days.

Sechel
Sechel

I'm surprised Biden performing well in the Northern states. I had assumed he needed Klobuchar for that reason

Carl_R
Carl_R

I heard an ad on the radio for Joni Earnst. Basically it said that all the problems of the world were caused by immigrants who smuggle drugs and take jobs from Iowans. I would say Greenfield will win.

Kimo
Kimo

The swamp is draining itself.


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