Slew of New Polls Have Bad News for Bernie

Mish

A few new polls came out today. They did not improve the chances of Bernie Sanders winning the Democratic nomination.

No Bernie Bounce

Those expecting a big Bernie bounce following his close win over Pete Buttigieg in New Hampshire were mistaken.

His odds of winning the nomination fell.

And although Joe Biden lost support, he actually did much better than expected.

New Polls

There are New Polls in Nevada, South Carolina, Florida, and Georgia.

Michael Bloomberg is not competing until Super Tuesday and thus is not on the ballot in South Carolina or Nevada.

South Carolina

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There was no Bernie bounce in South Carolina at all.

Curiously, Nate Silver at 538 has Sanders' odds of winning at 47% with Biden only a 37% shot.

That is based on the chance Biden might drop out.

"Part of the reason our model has Sanders as the favorite is that it thinks Biden could drop out before South Carolina even votes. In the scenarios where Biden is still in the race come Feb. 29, though, he is probably still favored in the Palmetto State," says Nate Silver.

While remotely possible, this is more than a bit too much modeling for me. A more likely reason for Biden slipping is what happens in Nevada.

Also, there's a bit of a curiosity here. Bloomberg is not even on the ballot but he is polling at 6%. Give most of those votes to anyone but Sanders.

Silver's model is way over-thinking this.

Nevada

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The primary was on February 11 and the poll was taken February 11 through 13 (can't the pollsters think?) but two of the three days are not overlapped.

There was a Bernie Bounce in Nevada but it appears to be at the expense of nobody.

The top line total is 87 so there is a missing 13 percentage points somewhere.

Silver has sanders odd of winning at 64% and Biden at 16%.

I think this will be close. And it's a caucus. How well Bernie does my very well depend on whether or not Warren can hit 15%.

Assume Warren, Steyer, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar all fail to hit 15%.

In that case Bernie is likely to get most of the Warren votes and Biden most of the rest. A strong 15+ vote for Buttigieg and Klobuchar but not Warren could result in a big win for Bernie. But a strong showing by Warren and a weak one for Buttigieg and Klobuchar can give a surprise win to Biden heading into South Carolina.

And don't forget the Nevada debate on February 19.

Bloomberg still needs one more qualifier. If he qualifies, he might land some punches on Sanders, Biden, or both.

Georgia

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There is no Bernie bounce in Georgia either despite the complete collapse of Warren. That's quite something.

Note the 105 delegate count. Sanders, as it stands, would get few, possibly none of them.

Expect Bloomberg's advertising to pull him in the money.

Florida

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The Florida primary is on March 17. There is two weeks to recover or collapse after Super Tuesday which is on March 3.

Given the Florida demographics, I expect Bernie to do very poorly in Florida. And look at that massive 219 delegate count.

Also note that Bloomberg is in the lead.

Nate Silver thinks St. Pete Polls is biased.

"Adjusted for these house effects, our model interprets this poll as saying Biden has 25 percent support, Bloomberg has 21 percent, Sanders has 13 percent, Buttigieg has 10 percent and Klobuchar has 7 percent."

My non-model way of thinking says look at that enormous momentum for Bloomberg. I'll go with that.

But even with his model adjustments, Sanders is only at 13%. That gets Sanders approximately 5-10 delegates or so out of 219 (he will top 15% in some precincts).

That would be an outright disaster for Sanders.

Bernie's Odds

If Sanders does not do exceptionally well on Super Tuesday, the split will make it nearly impossible for him to have a majority of delegates heading into the convention.

On that basis, I do not believe Bernie will be the Democratic nominee.

Barring an outright majority, the Super Delegates will kick in and they don't want Sanders.

Rightfully so.

Only extreme liberal fools believe a socialist has a better shot at beating Trump than Bloomberg, Biden, or Klobuchar.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (28)
No. 1-12
Jojo
Jojo

If the blacks in SC decide to vote for Biden and help revive his campaign, then it will on them when Biden loses to Trump in the general election. It's Bernie or Bloomberg at this point.

Both of them have a lot of bloggers, pundits and political bit players hitting each of them for different reasons in a last desperate attempt to prop up Biden, who has essentially flat-lined.

Stuki
Stuki

"In that case Bernie is likely to get most of the Warren votes and Biden most of the rest."

"Most" is likely true in both cases. But there are degrees of most.

I suspect Warren -> Sanders is meaningfully "moster", than Buttigieg and Kobuchar to either Biden or Bloomberg.

A lot of voters sympathetic to Sanders aren't the ideological communists they are often portrayed as. In San Francisco, some, even many, of them campaigned for Ron Paul in 2008 and 2012.... ( I know, San Francisco is its own special freakshow, and seemingly half of Paul's supporters were effectively single issue voters favoring legalization of drugs. But SF is not that far from many other cities.....).

Instead, many can more accurately be described, or "modeled" if you wish, as "anti establishment," period, than ideological Bolsheviks.

For those guys, some of whom really don't want much to do with Sanders' more socialistic strains, Buttigieg and Klobuchar are as far as they're willing to go, in the "establishment" direction. Take those two away, and the least of remaining evils is ol'e Bern....

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

The irony is the nomination will likely go to either Bernie or Bloomberg. Neither held office as a Democrat. This tells you that the Democratic party is void of any organic talent. The mayor of South Bend is running for president ? The Republican party got hijacked by Trump and now it looks like the same will happen to the Democratic party. The truth is everyone is tired of traditional control of the parties. Emotionally the parties are going through what the people are going through. A lot of confusion and soul searching is ahead.

ajc1970
ajc1970

Bernie has 2 ways to reelect Trump.

  1. win 1/2 the delegates outright and be the nominee (not very likely)
  2. win a plurality of the delegates going into the Convention, not be the nominee because of the super delegates (and pledged delegates for other candidates forming a coalition to beat him) -- that pisses off 25% of the Democrats and suppresses their turnout enough to cost them the general election (very likely)
Sechel
Sechel

If Bernie doesn't get the needed regular votes before the convention I think he's done for. The Super delegates are unlikely to cast their votes for him in my view.

Advancingtime
Advancingtime

The question on the mind of many democrats is whether Bernie Sanders can beat Trump in a capitalist America? Considering the surge in inequality the answer is, yes. Driving a decent car doesn't make a person middle-class or economically equal, especially if they are up to their eyeballs in debt to do so.

History shows the promises of generous programs have proven to be a great motivator. It does not hurt that Sanders comes across as sincere and passionate. The article below explores some of the issues and realities that would decide such a contest.

Blurtman
Blurtman

Capitalst running dogs, "The socialist system will eventually replace the capitalist system; this is an objective law independent of man's will. However much the reactionaries try to hold back the wheel of history, eventually revolution will take place and will inevitably triumph."

Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear

The polls show most of Biden's support went to the "No One" category. As long as the "No One" category continues to do well, the election will be a referendum about Trump more than approval of continuing to the left.

LawrenceBird
LawrenceBird

How about the 6pt jump in Texas to take the lead? More delegates there than FL, land of NY/NJ retirees.

Bloomberg's best bet is to not get in the debates as every candidate on stage is going to batter him - an easy and free target.

abend237-04
abend237-04

I think it's utterly unpredictable at this point, like two storm fronts colliding. it's impossible to get a good read on wind direction.

I do know this: If I were running the RNC, I'd be buying Bernie ads and busing dumb kids to his rallies in huge numbers.

RayLopez
RayLopez

The most interesting dynamic to me is that due to Fed election campaigning laws restricting donations to token amounts of money that have to be thoroughly documented by the giver, and possibly not enough people checking that box on your tax returns giving $1 or $3? to the federal campaign matching fund, the only people qualified to run for president these days are self-financing billionaires (or reputed billionaires as in Trump's case, as there are doubts).

Carl_R
Carl_R

I believe that everything we know about the election is wrong. I believe that the election will be decided by the Coronavirus. If the Coronavirus escapes in the US, and I believe it will, it will become the only issue that matters. If Trump addresses it aggressively, and calls for unity against it, he will most likely be re-elected. If his government tries to downplay it, or seems unprepared, he will have no chance.


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