Senate Tie is the Most Likely Outcome

Mish

The makeup of the new US Senate seems headed for a tie in the November election.

Betting ODDs By State

Which Party Will Control the Senate

Betting odds are from Predictit. The Lead map is from 270ToWin.

Current Senate Makeup

Current Senate Map With Expected Changes

Two independents (Green) caucus with the Democrats. Bernie Sanders in Vermont and Angus S. King, Jr. in Maine.

Expected Changes

I expect Democrats to pick up seats in Maine, North Carolina, Colorado, and Arizona but lose one in Alabama for a net pickup of +3.

North Carolina and Arizona Polls

North Carolina and Arizona Senate Polls 2020-09-02

Those leads have been steady and persistent for months. There is no reason to expect or believe anything different will happen.

Colorado Polls

Colorado Senate Polls 2020-08-31

Public Policy is a biased poll sponsored by someone or some political party. That makes it suspect. However, Hickenlooper has been +9 for months in nearly every poll so there is no reason to expect or believe anything different will happen.

Alabama 

Taking a Stand for God

The Alabama Senate race follows a special election. Jeff Sessions stepped down as Senator to become Trump's Attorney General.

In a special election, Doug Jones, a Democrat, barely beat Ray Moore, a Republican who Dated Teenaagers for Their Purity. 

Trump backed Moore, of course. But the Republican National Committee could not stand the stench and cut off funding. 

Yet, despite the sex charges and lack of funding Jones barely beat Moore by a margin of 49.9 to 48.4.

Jones became the first Democrat to win any statewide office in decades. 

Don't expect that again, to say the least.

Montana

Montana is a potential wildcard. The polls are stale (Late July) but Republican Daines has led Democrat Bullock by about 6 points the last three polls. 

In early July, Bullock was ahead in several polls. 

Montana rates to go red, but this is a potential Democrat flip to watch.

Maine Polls

Maine Senate Polls 2020-08-13A

This is where doubt sets in. Not only are those polls stale, they come from marginal pollsters. 

Also note Lisa Savage of the Green party who is running as an independent. 

The result is no candidate is polling over 50%. Savage undoubtedly takes votes away from Gideon for the benefit of Collins. 

We need fresh polls, but Collins is the underdog. 

Add It all Up

Add it all up and things look like a tie. 

But the Vice President gets to vote in the Senate to break ties. 

A single swing vote or lack thereof would decide things in the Senate.

Mish

Comments (25)
No. 1-12
numike
numike

this is the video it speaks for its self https://twitter.com/OmarJimenez/status/1304065750324391936

Herkie
Herkie

A 50/50 senate would mean a power sharing plan where the dems would set the agenda one year and the GOP the next, but, no matter who sets the agenda Harris will still be tie breaker so it will be a LOT friendlier legislative branch in 2021 than under Moscow Mitch.

I would take the bet in Montana, Alaska, and one of the Georgia seats. Montana can be very party independent when it comes to their representation in congress. Daines is not as popular as Bullock who in spite of being a dem is quite popular there.

Alaska is a dead heat, that one will be decided by well under 1% of the vote. Basically by a few hundred people, and I do not think Trump's announcement of further oil drilling restrictions off the Florida coast is going to sit well with them up there, if he can do that in Florida he can do it in Alaska also.

The Georgia races for senate are a total mess and most likely will go to run off. Perdue is ahead in polling and Ossoff likely will lose, but the possibility of a monumental black turn out means you should not bet any pink slips on it. Perdue is a first term senator who has attached his fate to Trump the same way Graham did. If Georgia flips blue it will be an anti Trump move and that will take Perdue out.

Loeffler, the appointed republican incumbent, is embroiled in a scandal in which she and her wealthy husband were caught selling stocks (at least $18 million) (Loeffler, who sits on the Senate Health Committee, first began selling stocks on January 24) immediately after a secret briefing briefing for senators well before the public was informed. She is also adamantly (her word not mine) opposed to the black lives matter movement. In a state where half the voters are either black or allies of blacks.

Anyway, this is a mandated race that allows anyone to run and so far Loeffler has a republican that is far to the right of her, loved by Faux News, an ardendt defender of Trump.

And, a few dems also in the running, one is Matt Lieberman, son of Joe, and the other is a black man named Warnock who is very well endorsed and quite popular. The rules say that the winner has to get 50% of the vote and that is not likely to happen for any so there will be a runoff Jan. 5, 2021 between the two top vote getters, I am not sure who the GOP side will be represented by, but the dem is probably going to be Warnock. And that is who I would put my money on. Of course by January the anger and excitement of this election season will have ebbed so the African American turn out may also. But, I think the pro Trump congressman running against Loeffler might well be the GOP to survive and go on to run off. If that is the case he will likely lose after Trump's own devastating loss. Since his only appeal to voters is he has his head so far up Trump's arse he has gone night blind it will be hard for him to win after Biden has already won in a landslide.

But wait WAIT there is more, Joni Earnst is in the battle of her life in Iowa also. And in a landslide type situation the very close races will likely sweep down ballot dems into office with Biden. If there is a 20-30 or more million vote lead for Biden as I expect I think Iowa tips blue and Earnst is out. So Mish, I do agree with your scenario to a tee and that is what I had on my own interactive map, but, it is WAY too close to call and democrats could easily end up with a majority outright in the senate.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

Dems still ahead in state-based Senate polls. I would not discount a few surprises that lead to a Democratic sweep in the Senate. Turnout is going to be higher than 2016 or 2018.

Sechel
Sechel

I would have expected McConnell to tell Senate Republicans to do whatever is necessary to win and that they no longer have to support the President, Donald Trump

Sechel
Sechel

Romney will be interesting in such a scenario . I could see him emerge as a power broker and voting both with Democrats and Republicans depending on issue. And with a Democratic President others could follow him

Brutus' Admirer
Brutus' Admirer

Polls are creatures of the lying media. I'd take 'em with a grain of salt. As people learn of the riots in spite of the lying media, it will affect their vote.

SamPfeifle
SamPfeifle

Hey there! You gotta rethink the Maine race. It's ranked-choice voting. Lisa Savage doesn't take votes from Gideon, she amplifies them, because, as a progressive, her #2 votes are much more likely to go to Gideon than Collins if she loses in round 1 (or round 2; Max Linn, another independent is polling near zero).

No WAY she helps Collins in this race. If anything, she brings in the Maine progressives (we have the longest-standing Green Party in the country) who would have otherwise stayed home because Collins and Gideon aren't that different policy-wise.

Carl_R
Carl_R

I think 50 is a best case scenario for the Republicans. As we move into late October and early November, projections show deaths from Covid climbing from the current pace to 2000 a day. If that happens, I expect a late shift to the Democrats, and they may end up with 52 seats or more. On the flip side, if Covid deaths are falling instead, Republicans might hold 50 or even 51 seats, but given the anti-maskers out there, I think that is unlikely.

shrutigoyal98915
shrutigoyal98915

Happy to come this website

shrutigoyal98915
shrutigoyal98915


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