Republicans in Danger of Losing the Senate

Mish

Trump's mishandled Covid-19 and the George Floyd riots so badly that a red backlash may cost Republicans the Senate.

I created the above map from the Real Clear Politics interactive map after checking the latest polls. 

The Real Clear Politics base maps looks a bit different.

Real Clear Politics Map

RCP Senate Map

I modified the RCP map based on recent polls.

Senate Polls 

Senate Pollls
  • Michigan: Peters is way ahead in numerous poll. I listed two of them. It is a mystery why RCP labels Michigan a tossup. 
  • North Carolina: One poll has the Republican up by 2 the other has the Democrat up by 2. I see this as a tossup. 
  • Kansas: Three polls in Kansas are +1 for someone. The Democrat is ahead in 2 of them. Call it a tossup. RCP has it in the Republican column.
  • Iowa: Democrat Greenfield has a three point lead. RCP has Iowa in the Republican column. I call it a tossup.
  • Kentucky: I am not sure what to make of this one, but Amy McGrath is ahead of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. RCP has this in the Republican column. To me it looks questionable. 

What Would a Flip Take?

Assuming my map is correct, Democrats have 47 seats which is their current total. 

I have 8 states as tossups, but many of them simply because there are no polls.

To flip the Senate, democrats would have to flip 3 states if Trump loses. 

If Trump wins Democrats would have to flip 4 states.

Three is very doable, and arguably likely.

Colorado

The Colorado Polls are very stale (April and Early May) but Democrat John Hickenlooper was ahead of incumbent Republican Cory Gardner by a whopping 18 points in the most recent poll. 

First, Hickenlooper has to beat Andrew Romanoff in a runoff primary. But all signs point to that. 

If I overestimate Democrat chances in Kentucky, I do the opposite in Colorado.

Predictit 

Predictit Us Senate

At the beginning of June, something snapped, and everyone should know the cause.

Trump made a complete fool out of himself with a bible photo-op in the wake of the George Floyd murder. 

Trump's Bubble Just Shattered

I commented on it in on June 3 in Trump's Bubble Just Shattered.

Since then 4 Republican Senators criticized Trump and a huge array of former ranking military leaders did the same. 

Yesterday, the current chair of the Joint Chief of Staff,  Army Gen. Mark Milley, apologized for being at that photo op with Trump.

“I should not have been there,” Gen. Milley said in a pre-recorded speech at National Defense University in Washington, D.C. “My presence in that moment and in that environment created a perception of the military involved in domestic politics. As a commissioned uniformed officer, it was a mistake that I have learned from. And I sincerely hope we all can learn from it.”

On June 9, In a Ridiculous Tweet, Trump Defends Police Who Crack a 75-Year Old Man's Head.

Also on June 9, I noted Trump Defends Immunity Laws that Protect Bad Cops.

Still 5 Months Away

The election is still 5 months away. Things can change.  But Trump is Trump so there is no reason to expect things to change.

At the current speed, Trump is going to cost the Republicans not only the presidency, but the Senate.

Mish

Comments (68)
No. 1-29
Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

Trump is turning Republican strongholds into tossup states. The shenanigans Georgia witnessed are what we will see in November. And Putin has the GRU ready to hack election machines as well. Trump isnt going to leave without being forcibly removed. The military official who stood next to Trump at the church said it was a mistake. The GOP would be better off nominating anyone else if they want to remain a party.

numike
numike

The IHME model is now being projected out to October, and unsurprisingly, they're predicting a second wave this fall. Daily deaths are projected to go below 500 per day for about 2 months starting in July, and then start spiking back up in September to where we'll be back over 1,000 deaths per day again in October. The death total is now projected to be just under 170,000 by October 1st, and if the trajectory of that curve is at all accurate, we'll almost certainly clear 200,000 deaths before the year is over. In other words, this pandemic is pretty much going to blow away any previous pandemic we've experienced in this country since the 1918-19 pandemic. Quite a bit more serious than H1N1, or really anything else any of us have ever seen.

channelstuffing
channelstuffing

Republicon party (RIP) are now "officially"the Wall Street party,Trump and that crew in DC is Wall Streets bitch.$16 trillion in bailouts in the last 6 months,99% goin to banks and WS (again).So now the banks will need another mult trillion dollar bailout and WS is in permanent bail out mode,trillions pumped into the "market"daily to keep it from crashing........While Main Street continues it's slow steady rot!

The Hood
The Hood

We all know how accurate the polls are in America when it comes to TRUMP. We'll see more of the same this time around. Yeah yeah yeah,.. Trump the evil guy, BLM forever yada yada yada. And when people get into the booth or get their vote by mail (many of which will be 'requisitioned') they'll vote for Trump just like they did in 2016. And those Predictit polls? For a few thousand bucks you can get that site to lie down, roll over and spit wooden nickels out your nose. Big Deal. Why don't you talk about all the manipulation going on with all these stupid millennial types "protesting" their freedom away Mish. Deal with Reality Mish, because Reality is going to deal with all of us much sooner than later. You watch, it will be Trump in 2020.

Carl_R
Carl_R

Trump has completely destroyed the Republican Party. It will be at least a decade before it recovers. I predicted back in March that the election would be a grisly landslide, and that Democrats would end up with a majority in both the house and Senate for at least a decade. I don't consider this a good thing at all, but it seems inevitable. I expect the Venezuelazation of the US.

davebarnes2
davebarnes2

If Smiling Cory (he is smiling because he wants to gut your Medicare) wins in Colorado, then Fat Donnie™ will win 400 electoral votes.

MikeC
MikeC

It's not like it really matters which corrupt party controls the Senate. They are both equally destructive just in different ways.

tokidoki
tokidoki

People were writing epitaphs for the Dems. The virus and Trump turned that around so quick now it's the other way around. Forrest Gump had it right: "life's like a box of chocolates".

abend237-04
abend237-04

Colorado is a political microcosm of America: I watched the population tilt to blue over the 35 years I lived in Boulder. The front range, from Colorado Springs to Ft. Collins has imported enough Californians to now win state elections, but not win traditional Colorado, which feels neglected and marginalized...and is, thus Trump.

abend237-04
abend237-04

It's been government by filibuster and cloture for twenty years now. Even a Democrat sweep will fall far short of the filibuster-proof 60 votes needed to change that. I don't trust the polls for the same reason I don't trust the "news" anymore: Why listen to any of them if you already know what they're going to say?
Some poll legitimately. Others take the form of: Do you intend to vote for the last possible hope of man or his scum-sucking opponent in the coming election?

Rbm
Rbm

It seems to me trump has not destroyed the repub party. They have done it to themselves. Look at all the complaints on this site about wall street etc. would you need obama care if health was affordable, While trumps just the nail in the coffin. Maybe mitch and the gang need to get the boot and break the cycle were in. Get a rb party that actually represents the people they need to get them elected.

Webej
Webej

The Bible op will be completely forgotten by November.

There are 3 themes that will determine the elections:
– Economic Devastation
– Covid Response Blame
– Inner City Demolition Blame
These themes will only grow: They will completely eclipse all memory of the Russia interference hoax, China, impeachment farce, etc.

Corvinus
Corvinus

Trump's main ability seems to be to bring out the crazy in people that consider themselves rational intellectuals. Can anyone really claim that Trump even had a fair chance at being President when he was accused of treasonous impeachable acts from day one? Mish, you seem to be living in a world where you think life can be ruled by rationality...that is a wonderful dream but it isn't run that way. Ideas over parties and candidates? Are people even capable of choosing between ideas when the vast majority of the schools skew left in a range that extends from starchy nose- in-the-air cocktail liberals to radical Marxists? Ask a former Eastern European what they think of America...most are appalled to see the same shit developing that sunk their own countries for most of the 20th century and from which they are still recovering. Does anyone really seriously think Trump is 'a threat to the Constitution'? How exactly? Do we really want Biden to beat Trump? Why? Because he has a tendency to spout of at the mouth and doesn't have a likeable personality?

Webej
Webej

IHME? Isn't that the other Gates funded tent.
The one which had provably false initialization values on the very day that their forecasts went out?

njbr
njbr

...Can anyone really claim that Trump even had a fair chance at being President when he was accused of treasonous impeachable acts from day one?....

Sorry, what I remember from day one is his all-out push for America to believe his "largest-ever" inauguration crowd. Don't believe your eyes, believe what I tell you.

Mish
Mish

Editor

The reality is -

  1. The polls were not that far off in 2016 A couple of percentages points in a few key states.

  2. Trump run against one of the most despised candidates in history and barely won

  3. A last second ply by Comey likely swung the election

  4. This is not 2016

That's reality

Cocoa
Cocoa

The more senile Joe talks, the worse it gets. He is just going to back into the White House since this election is all about Donald Trump and nothing to do with Biden(who stinks but it's all relative.) Another deciding factor is is VP choice. Frontrunner Harris is trash and progressives hate her background as a dirty cop/DA

Bungalow Bill
Bungalow Bill

The GOP needs to realize Donald Trump isn't worth saving. The Senate it. Saving the Senate means they have more control in SCOTUS picks, legislation, and of course holding the president responsible. Trump recklessly spent political capital and has nothing left. He is a lame duck long before his first term is up.

It would be best to throw resources at saving the Senate and go back to the drawing board in 2024 and actually elect a real conservative who has the leadership qualities to push the agenda through rather than plan on Twitter all day.

Augustthegreat
Augustthegreat

"Trump is going to cost the Republicans not only the presidency, but the Senate". The truth is that the republican senators themselves are costing them the Senate. they a bunch of cowards.

Anna 7
Anna 7

Well, you know what this means? The D’s will have to sink to new lows in order to avoid controlling the pres, senate, and house all at once. It is vitally important to the D-R duopoly that they be able to excuse broken public promises by pointing at their alleged political opponents. “Gridlock” is the excuse for failing public promises while honoring private ones to the D.C.-NYC-London junta.

Mr. Purple
Mr. Purple

Trump was sent by God as punishment for the Republican Party. It will not exist in any recognizable form by mid-November.

Republicans went all-in on a false idol and destroyed any claim to legitimacy and worthwhile platform they may have had. That's the price of a failed cult.

I look forward to a time when moral and logical conservatives regroup and rejoin legitimate political discourse and work toward a better future for America instead of bunkering down in their Alamo of white supremacy.

Herkie
Herkie

Kentucky: I am not sure what to make of this one, but Amy McGrath is ahead of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. RCP has this in the Republican column. To me it looks questionable.

Mish, the poll I saw yesterday has McGrath up by just over 3 points, it is within the margin of error but a lead is a lead. And Moscow Mitch has 5 months left to piss off KY voters. Since they are about 85% in favor of another direct stimulus and McConnell is blocking that, or at least delaying it till late summer at the earliest, I think we can safely say he is costing himself votes. Remember KY has one of the highest poverty rates in the country.

The again a lot is up to how well African Americans turn out, if they are as pissed as they say they are that would be the deciding factor in a state like KY where the black population is near 10%. It is state ranked #3 for percentage of blacks who are registered to vote, but #27 for blacks that actually did go vote in 2016. That means a lot of blacks in KY mean well when it comes to voting but then don't follow through, this year could be different and if it is then they will dump McConnell. I know he is just one of the senators that needs to be removed, but as senate majority leader his removal would have effects far beyond just another lost seat.

Here is the thing Mish, 5 months is really NOT that long a time, and people are both scared (economically) and pissed off (politically). The sheer size of the tasks required to turn this around just are not going to allow the GOP get the population happy before they vote. Fear and anger are a powerful combination, a huge motivator.

If biden were "smart" he would pick Harris for his VP, that would certainly add to the black turn out. But, it would come at a cost to his centrist democrat following s people like me will either vote Trump or not go to the polls. I will not vot for any candidate that either supports slave reparations or a UBI that is not "U"niversal.

agent96
agent96

I hate to break it to you but Trump will be reelected by people who would never admit to voting for him.

ToInfinityandBeyond
ToInfinityandBeyond

The Republican rank and file are on the path to self destruction if they continue to throw their hats in the ring with Trump. Slowly but surely, senior Republican party members are beginning to realize the damage that Trump is doing to their party by pandering to the extreme right. Continuing down this path could see a landslide victory for the Democrats in November. Not something I necessarily see as a good thing but it may be just what is needed to save the country from our current dangerous path. There is no doubt that Trump’s character and demeanor are despicable and an anathema to a large portion Of the American population. There will always be Republican extremists who believe Trump has done no wrong and can do no wrong but they are in the minority and will not be enough to save Trump in November.

Sechel
Sechel

Dodge Demon
Dodge Demon

Lindsey Graham and others like him - good riddance to bad rubbish. What were he and that other crook, McCain, doing in Ukraine in 2016?

Therabdus
Therabdus

Forget Michigan. Why would anyone label Colorado a tossup? That's the most obvious flip to Democrats in the Senate.

debracarter
debracarter

The hand goes on it @ court, to tell the truth! It's a clue, a sign. Church goer's can't be hypocrites if, they believe. Thou, will , shall not,! 10 commandments! Do as your Bible says, nothing wrong with him reminding you.

Herkie
Herkie

UPDATE KENTUCKY:

So, for months the KY race between McGrath and Moscow Mitch was within the margin of error and on a couple occasions McGrath actually led McConnell. Then, as if by magic in the immediate aftermath of rioting and looting McConnell is suddenly up in the polls by 20 point against McGrath.

What has happened is that KY still has not had its primary, and suddenly in the wake of civil unrest and police abuses Charles Booker (African American) has come out of nowhere, trying to defeat Amy McGrath, the poll has him 14 points down on McConnell and her down by 20.

Elizabeth Warren has now endorsed Booker.

What this poll shows is that 1) the voters in KY who a few weeks ago were so open to a democrat replacing McConnell that she led him but in a statistical tie, are now so totally turned off by the looting and rioting that one in five will not now be open to a democrat if there is even a hint he will be an African American. Also, 2) there is an element of the KY population that would refuse to vote for any white candidate and it amounts to about 6% of the voters, because Booker now trails McConnell by 14 while the white democrat trails by 20. That means when it was just a white female democrat (McGrath) against the incumbent McConnell she had an excellent chance of unseating him, slightly better than even in fact.

But, when a black man steps up his attempt to replace her as the challenger interest in any democrat challenge of McConnell evaporates like water droplets on a red hot skillet. He does lose the general election against McConnell by 6 points less than she does, but that is because 10% of the voters are black and most are telling us they will not vote unless it is for a black candidate, while the GOP and white voters are saying they are open to a democrat and even a female as long as she is white.

That is some serious racial divide there. If Booker was out of the race she would have a chance to win, but neither has a chance to win if it is to be a black male, and if the black male loses the primary and McGrath is the challenger the black vote will stay home and give democrats the stiff middle finger allowing McConnell to win. This is such a gorgeously crafted division in the democrats ranks that even someone like me who detests the GOP is impressed and rather awed by it.

Of course it helps that Booker is going around the state with BLM fist raised high in a black power salute. That his face is ALWAYS contorted in what appears to be extreme racial anger as if the 10% of voters in the state who are black could elect him. If only he hates on whites enough that 10% can win right?

In fact their refusal to vote with whites who seek to dump Trump's party of corrupt sheeple only means 4 more years of GOP filth. I hope nobody takes this the wrong way, but perhaps if they do not want to vote with the white people of their state trying to effect real change they should simply form their own party. They certainly are doing the GOP's work for them by refusing to vote for anyone who is white, by doing so they only guarantee they have no representation at all. I hope they ENJOY having Moscow Mitch or some other racist fuck for the rest of their lives, because that is what they are going to get by trying to force bitter anger and extreme racial change in a state where that simply cannot happen, it was a CONFEDERATE STATE, but unlike other confederate states where blacks make up a sizable minority of voters KY has only 10% of the voters being black. At best they can assist white democrats to make change happen. Only, they have figured out they can play the GOP game by blackmailing whites - sink democrats every election if they don't get what they want, by just not voting. So be it. They are either AFRICAN first, or AMERICAN first and they have just enough of the population nationwide at 13.3% to make sure the democrats are never in power again just by not voting, and this THIS is the ONLY hope that floats the GOP prospects, keep the left and nation divided.

And the televised spectacle of black males looting and burning and rioting 20 weeks before the general election was enough to turn the tide against democrats and their policy of appeasing black voters. Just look at the STUNNING turnaround in the polls for McConnell. From 1-4 points behind last month to 20 points ahead this month. So visions of angry black males looting and burning cities is simply not a working strategy for black or democrats. Who would have guessed?

I even hear quiet words of race war being talked about by frustrated blacks and far right militia types. Oh, that would be a tragic and historic error that would rank right up in the human history of genocidal racial holocaust by Hitler. It would be a replay of the Civil War but this time on a 50 state basis. One we can't win no matter who gets wiped out in the process. It would end the US. Maybe that would be best for the majority after all, but it would kill me and other disabled vets as no US Treasury means no income, and it is sort of hard for disabled folks to start over in their 60's in a war torn failed nation.


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