RCP nails it
RCP has an excellent article on the election, that is exactly in agreement with my thinking. Trump should have won, but he did it to himself. A couple of quotes:
"deft handling of a major crisis could have turned his terrible numbers around. Trump could have wiped the slate clean, shelved the insults, worked cooperatively with all governors, elevated experts and consistently encouraged mask-wearing so the nation could safely open up as soon as possible. The only things that prevented him from such responsible crisis management are his own character and his own abilities."
"He also could have used the tragic killing of George Floyd to change public perception of his handling of race issues. After all, Trump did enact criminal justice reform, and was eager at his convention to show off the people of color he pardoned. Instead, he continued to fan the flames of racial division. "
A crisis is an opportunity for a politician to gain large quantities of support by being a leader and a uniter. Trump had two crisis, and rather than being a uniter, was a divider on both.