Only 13 Percent of Voters are Still Undecided

Mish

With three months to go in the campaign, Trump's odds of winning narrowed yet again.

Among the decided voters Biden leads Trump 50-37 in an NBC/WSJ Survey.

ASKED IF NOT SUPPORTING DONALD TRUMP

Q10A Even though you are not supporting Donald Trump now, what are the chances that you might support Trump in  this year's presidential election--Is there a fair chance that you might support him, a small chance, just a very slight chance, or no chance at all you might support him? 

  • Fair chance you might support ................... 1 
  • Small chance ................................................... 3 
  • Very slight chance .......................................... 6 
  • No chance at all you might support........... 50 
  • Not sure ............................................................ 0
  • Currently supporting Trump......................... 40 

 ASKED IF NOT SUPPORTING JOE BIDEN 

Q10B Even though you are not supporting Joe Biden now, what are the chances that you might support Biden in this year's presidential election--Is there a fair chance that you might support him, a small chance, just a very slight chance, or no chance at all you might support him? 

  • Fair chance you might support ..................... 2 
  • Small chance ..................................................... 3 
  • Very slight chance ............................................ 6 
  • No chance at all you might support............. 37 
  • Not sure ............................................................. 1 
  • Currently supporting Biden .......................... 51

My Caveats 

  1. The above results are from registered voters only. A poll of likely voters might have produced different results.
  2. This is just one poll but it fits numerous other polls that show dwindling support for Trump dues to Covid handling and racial issues. 
  3. This is a national poll. The election will be won or lost in the battleground states.

There are still 3 months left, but only three months left. It is no longer "early".

Monmouth University Poll

A Monmouth University Poll taken earlier this month made the same conclusion: More Voters Rule Out Trump Than Biden.

Half of the nation’s electorate says they have ruled out voting for Donald Trump in November, while 4 in 10 say the same about Joe Biden.

Slightly more voters say they are certain about their support for Biden (40%) than say the same about Trump (34%). Fully half (50%), though, say they are not at all likely to support the incumbent while 39% say the same about the challenger.

In addition to Biden’s current firm support, another 3% say they are very likely to vote for him and 9% are somewhat likely, while 6% are not too likely.

In addition to Trump’s current firm support, another 2% say they are very likely to vote for him and 6% are somewhat likely, while 6% are not too likely.

Trump Needs Nearly All of the Undecideds to Break His Way

Assuming the above polls are in the ballpark (and I strongly suggest they are) Trump needs all, nearly all, or perhaps even "more than all", of the undecided voters to break his way.

Caveat #3 is the most important. These were national polls. A similar poll of the battleground states would be more convincing.

Recent Battleground State Polls

Recent Battleground State Polls 2020-07-25

I compiled the above list from FiveThirtyEight.

Astute readers who double-check will note that I left off a slew of polls by "Spry Strategies". Those polls were mostly but not entirely favorable to Trump. 

I did not include those polls because they were all marked with an *.

Polls marked with an asterisk are partisan polls. Partisanship is determined by who sponsors the poll, rather than who conducts it. Polls are considered partisan if they’re conducted on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, or PAC, super PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party.

Polls sponsored by a candidate or PAC are typically biased by weight, by leading questions, or by other non-random means. 

Polling Question of the Day

Why rate Rate Rasmussen as C+ instead of F or ignoring them as biased?

Nate Silver never answers any of my questions nor any questions from anyone else that I have seen.

In the national surveys, at least, Silver takes into consideration the pollster bias and makes adjustments. They did not do so for Spry Strategies. 

This is Not 2016

A key difference from four years ago is that fewer voters have a negative opinion of the Democratic nominee. Biden’s rating stands at 44% favorable and 44% unfavorable. It was 42%–49% in early June. Hillary Clinton’s rating in July 2016 was 34% favorable and 52% unfavorable. Trump currently has a negative 38% favorable and 55% unfavorable opinion. It was 38%–57% in early June. As a candidate four years ago, he held a 31% favorable and 53% unfavorable rating.

Overall, 21% of all registered voters do not have a favorable opinion of either party’s nominee. Trump did well with this “double negative” group in 2016. The National Election Pool exit poll showed him ultimately winning their vote after Clinton held a small edge throughout the campaign. But he is getting swamped among these voters this time around. Biden leads by 55% to 21% among this group.

“Four years ago, Clinton was the insider candidate who approximated an incumbent in many voters’ minds. There is no mistaking who wears that mantle this year. Trump’s problem is that voters who aren’t enamored with either candidate tend to go for change,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

The above snip is from Monmouth University.

I have commented many times "This is not 2016." I said so way back in December for the same reasons.

Trump Complain About Poll Samples

Rigged?

Weighted vs Unweighted Polls

People who complain about rigged polls by independent pollsters are ignorant of the process.

There is frequent oversampling or undersampling by political party, race, age group, gender, etc.

In fact, it is impossible to not have over or undersampling in a poll. People bitch about this but it is irrelevant.

The pollsters take unweighted responses then weight them so they are statistically valid.

Polls Wrong?

People point to 2016 as an example of polls being wrong.

Once again, this is mostly silliness. The polls did indeed get the outcome wrong but the polls were within the margin of error. 

Comey Factor

Trump had a huge surge at the last moment due to a blockbuster announcement by FBI director James Comey.

FiveThirtyEight comments The Comey Letter Probably Cost Clinton The Election , So why won’t the media admit as much?

Hillary Clinton would probably be president if FBI Director James Comey had not sent a letter to Congress on Oct. 28. The letter, which said the FBI had “learned of the existence of emails that appear to be pertinent to the investigation” into the private email server that Clinton used as secretary of state, upended the news cycle and soon halved Clinton’s lead in the polls, imperiling her position in the Electoral College.

The letter isn’t the only reason that Clinton lost. It does not excuse every decision the Clinton campaign made. Other factors may have played a larger role in her defeat, and it’s up to Democrats to examine those as they choose their strategy for 2018 and 2020.

But the effect of those factors — say, Clinton’s decision to give paid speeches to investment banks, or her messaging on pocket-book issues, or the role that her gender played in the campaign — is hard to measure. The impact of Comey’s letter is comparatively easy to quantify, by contrast. At a maximum, it might have shifted the race by 3 or 4 percentage points toward Donald Trump, swinging Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Florida to him, perhaps along with North Carolina and Arizona. At a minimum, its impact might have been only a percentage point or so. Still, because Clinton lost Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by less than 1 point, the letter was probably enough to change the outcome of the Electoral College.

Trump won Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin by less than 1 percentage point. 

Trump Fires Campaign Manager

Not Wrong Then, Not Wrong Now

Polls are snapshots of current sentiment with margins of error. 

The polls were not wrong in 2016 and they are likely not wrong now. Even if they are wrong now, it takes tremendous TDS Type II (Trump is never wrong) to believe all the polls are wrong, and by a big enough margin to put Trump in the lead.

In 2016, the Comey effect was not reflected in the polls at the state level but it swung the election.

If you don't believe the polls then why panic?

Someone in the Trump administration must believe the polls. If not, why did Trump replace his campaign manager?

Mish

Comments (22)
No. 1-12
JimmyScot
JimmyScot

In a sense, if Biden wins, it’s a validation of the underhand tactics used by the far left for the last four years. Not that Trump is any better - if he loses he’s lost because of his Twitter account.

But I think Trump will win. I think people are looking at the complete rewrite of American history, the incredible bias with which black criminals are canonised and white law abiding citizens or police who are killed don’t get a mention.

If I was living in an American city that was going up in flames, I wouldn’t be saying “hmmm Trump is a tyrant, he’s sent in the feds and they are snatching people from the streets”.
Nope, I’d be thanking him for protecting my family.

Trump 2020.
My prediction.

njbr
njbr

“TRUMP COULD NOT BE MORE ON THE WRONG SIDE”: NEW POLL SHOWS TRUMP’S BLACK LIVES MATTER PROTEST RESPONSE COULD COST HIM 2020
Exclusive polling suggests the protests changed Americans’ minds so quickly, and so profoundly, that Trump planted himself even further on the wrong side of public opinion than previously understood.....Avalanche found resounding support for the protests not just among Biden supporters, but among persuadable voters and even soft Trump supporters. The hardcore Vote Trump respondents were against the protests, with 56% opposing them. But among the softer Lean Trump set, an eye-opening 59% said the protesters were “completely right” or “somewhat right”—probably not what the president had in mind when he commandeered Lafayette Square. And 72% of Americans with Mixed Feelings about the presidential race—precious undecided voters—said the protesters were right too. “There’s not a lot of issues where you get even a strong majority of Americans on the same page,” said Michiah Prull, the CEO of Avalanche. “It speaks to that historic moment, and it speaks to a degree of national alignment on something that's honestly pretty rare these days.”

Snow_Dog
Snow_Dog

“Nate Silver never answers any of my questions nor any questions from anyone else that I have seen.“

Stop quoting Silver, he hasn’t ever been right about anything. His margins of error make moot the point of even referring to what he does as predictions. Ask yourself this : if you had a track record as awful as Silver, would you be answering people’s questions? Of course not.

Why has Trump replaced his campaign manager? I don’t know, why has he replaced almost everybody who has ever worked in his administration? It’s what Trump does.

He canned Cory Lewandowski in 2016 and things turned around for him. We’ll see what happens.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

I think right now the chances are about 90/10 in favor of Biden. The Republicans are increasing risk of losing the Senate everyday. Voters are going to turn out in droves both via mail and in person. That is bad news for the Republican party. Texas is now a swing state like Florida or Ohio.

swamiman
swamiman

We won’t know till Election Day. Trump just goes back to his golfing . He did his best and now mosh gets what he wants a communist in the White House. I think Trump can still win.

rach1902
rach1902

dont be too pessimistic regarding Trumps chances

oddschecker have Biden @8/13; Trump@7/4, but
according to https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/trump_approval_index_history

Trumps approval ratings are currently -5, which is 10 points than Obama's rating
(during his re-election year).

Trump has for the past 18 months averaged a daily rating averaging 8 points better than Obama (i am using Obama's ratings as a sort of ad-hoc proxy for Biden)

ps i believe managed to achieve a rating from Rasmussen of -23
a few weeks (16 august 2011) before the election and he sailed through that without too much of a problem

rach1902
rach1902

ps missed out the word "better"
meant to say Trumps approval ratings are currently -5, which is 10 points better than Obama's rating (during his re-election year).

Webej
Webej

Counterfactuals are fun as thought experiments (this one in 3 steps) but lack any force of evidence:

  1. Hillary Clinton would probably be president if FBI Director James Comey had not sent a letter to Congress on Oct. 28
  2. Comey couldn't have mentioned Hillary's illegal emails if they hadn't existed
  3. Had Hillary not felt the need for illegal off-the-record email, she wouldn't have been Hillary
Webej
Webej

Sometimes when you are weighing your options, you have several plans, heavily favoring one on balance, only to succumb to a sudden last minute impulse when on the cusp. That happens to a lot of people in the voting booth, having made up the balance, and suddenly being beset by an impulse. Rather unpredictable, especially in an election where it is unlikely you judge both possibilities to be acceptable.

Biden and his substitute are not visible, so the antipathy can only start to grow when they appear in public. It will again be an election won by the least antipathy to two unpalatable choices (?democracy). The margin for potential antipathy to the presumptive Dem president (Biden being an empty apparatchik vessel) is an unknown quantity and can only grow.

Runner Dan
Runner Dan

Seems like neither really want to be President, but don't want to admit it.

Biden's puppet masters are telling him he's gotta do it and Biden is secretly protesting by exaggerating his senile condition.

Trump's ego is telling him he's gotta do it and Trump is protesting by running a lousy campaign.

Bam_Man
Bam_Man

NOBODY has seen Biden perform in a debate, or even stand in front of a microphone without a teleprompter yet.

Just wait.

rum_runner
rum_runner
  1. Who is Biden going to pick for a running mate and just how long is he going to wait? The majority of running mates are picked by August with just a few lagging until late August.
  2. How is Biden going to perform in a debate? His stutters and gaffes are legitimately hard to see as anything other than cognitive decline. If he has "a moment" during the debates people might think its' better the devil you know.

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