My Fearless Election Forecast and Range of Outcomes
85% Confidence Levels
It is possible Trump wins. We will have to suffer through another debate before my confidence level gets too much higher.
How I see Things Now
That is the same map as my forecast with increased uncertainty regarding Iowa, Ohio, and Georgia.
I expect all three to break for Biden unless he makes a major gaffe in the next debate, catches Covid, or some other unexpected event happens.
Likely Best Case For Trump
I believe the best Trump can do (again an 85% confidence level is to fall short).
That does not rule out a Trump win, as 15% isn't nothing.
It's just very difficult to make up ground when you trail in every swing state plus states that are not even supposed to be swing states.
Even Texas is in play for Biden.
Likely Best Case For Biden
Uncertainty goes both ways. My 85% confidence level says it is more likely for Biden to win Texas than it is for Trump to win the election.
- 85% Confidence Range: Biden 280-413
- 75% Confidence Range: Biden 315-375