My Fearless Election Forecast and Range of Outcomes

Mish

The above map is my "most likely" outcome. There are other possibilities.

85% Confidence Levels 

It is possible Trump wins. We will have to suffer through another debate before my confidence level gets too much higher. 

 How I see Things Now

How I See Things Now October 13

That is the same map as my forecast with increased uncertainty regarding Iowa, Ohio, and Georgia. 

I expect all three to break for Biden unless he makes a major gaffe in the next debate, catches Covid, or some other unexpected event happens. 

Likely Best Case For Trump

Best Possible Trump Outcome  October 13

I believe the best Trump can do (again an 85% confidence level is to fall short).

That does not rule out a Trump win, as 15% isn't nothing.

 It's just very difficult to make up ground when you trail in every swing state plus states that are not even supposed to be swing states.

Even Texas is in play for Biden.  

Likely Best Case For Biden

Maximum Possible Biden Win  October 13

Uncertainty goes both ways. My 85% confidence level says it is more likely for Biden to win Texas than it is for Trump to win the election.

Confidence Ranges 

  • 85% Confidence Range: Biden 280-413 
  • 75% Confidence Range: Biden 315-375

Mish

Comments (68)
No. 1-25
PecuniaNonOlet
PecuniaNonOlet

I like what I am seeing....giddy with excitement.

Sechel
Sechel

After a debate and a townhall if you are expecting a different Donald Trump you'll be disappointed. This is not a politician who can shift boxing styles. He brings the shpiel of his rallies to the debates. He's already practicing at the stump. Hasn't worked so far.

Dodge Demon
Dodge Demon

Biden win / lose scenarios:

Which will be higher, a one ounce silver coin or a 4’ x 8 x 5/8 sheet of plain plywood?

HRI1145
HRI1145

Thanks Mish. Very gutsy... but we shall see in about 16 days. It will get rowdy.

Argnne
Argnne

Too much TDS Mish! Not a Trump fan and will be voting libertarian again .. feels very much like 2016 all over with the exception that he will do significantly better with the African American and Hispanic communities. Polls are wrong as usual.

Casual_Observer2020
Casual_Observer2020

If Trump had been competent he would have easily won. Now he is talking about leaving the country. Trump has failed. I voted for him in 2016 but the experiment is done. He hasn't done enough to be president again. If there was a way for Trump supporters to leave the country with him, I would be in favor of it. Let them all go to Russia.

Greggg
Greggg

Exit pols are what bother me. With all this mail-in/absentee balloting, I don't see a way that they can do an accurate exit pol. I watched it like a hawk in 2016, especially the Dem primary that was so crooked. now I don't know what to expect.

Augustthegreat
Augustthegreat

Instead of leaving the country, tRump may decide to establish a United States of tRump! where all the tRump states unite and create a new KingDom. That's fine with me, as I live in a blue state.

njbr
njbr

My prediction?

Weeks of manufactured chaos until the December 8, or even January 6, based on key electoral college dates.

Ever wonder what a total shit-show looks like? What the dismantling of constitutional process will be like? In a pandemic?

We'll be living it for 2 months after the election.

Rippletum
Rippletum

Mish voting for a libertarian in a binary election shows he is far from fearless

Realist
Realist

Interesting predictions Mish. I look forward to Election Day to watch the results begin to come in. I'm not sure if a winner will be declared that early. I'm also looking forward to my discussion with Ted R, who will explain how the Latin vote put Trump over the top. Unless he doesn't show up, of course.

DittoBuilder
DittoBuilder

I am a RE broker here in Arizona. I never voted and never will because between the two parties, all you get to choose is "paper or plastic" (bag), but what's in the bag is the same in the end.

I have to tell you what I see on the ground doesn't match with your prediction. Going around the Valley, I see lots and lots of Trump signs, from cars to truck flags to home signs. I have seen only a few Biden signs, maybe 1 in 5, if that.

Also, a week or so ago, there was supposed to be a Biden rally downtown Phoenix. Nobody showed up. Literally. I watched ABC and the reporter was puzzled as to why this happened. There were police cars around to keep crowds under control, except ... nobody showed up. As in, not a single person. Trump rallies are a ruckus.

If I were betting, I'd say Trump will win AZ, easily. I am confused how pollsters see AZ going blue. Most people here fled California as housing refugees, and most of them have turned red in the process.

Not to say that's good or bad. I only look at policies, not people or parties. I wish there was a Centrist Party in the US, with liberal attitude and reasonable entitlements as well as fiscal responsibility. As it is, like I said, "paper or plastic" is the question, just like in the old supermarket checkout, and I feel this is just the oligarchy framing the game: you have a choice of candidates we provide. No thanks.

Casual_Observer2020
Casual_Observer2020

Another Trump lie.

ISIS attacks surge even as Trump boasts of a '100%' defeated caliphate
ISIS attacks surge even as Trump boasts of a '100%' defeated caliphate

DAKAR, Senegal - On Aug. 5, militants carrying the black flag of the Islamic State launched a daring land-and-sea assault on the strategic port city of Mocimboa da Praia in northern Mozambique. In less than a week, they routed government forces and captured the entire town, declaring it the capital of a new Islamic province. Days later, a different band of Islamist gunmen rampaged through a famous wildlife park for giraffes in Koure, Niger, just 35 miles from the country's capital. Firing from motorbikes, they killed eight people, including six French humanitarian workers. The two attacks on opposite sides of Africa are among the scores of violent episodes to shake the continent in what experts are calling a breakout year for extremist groups affiliated with al-Qaida or the Islamic State. Less than two years after the fall of the Islamic State's self-declared caliphate in Syria and Iraq, the terrorist group is attempting a comeback in Africa, with far-reaching implications for a region already beset by poverty, corruption and the novel coronavirus. At least three Islamist insurgencies are surging across broad swaths of territory, from the deserts of the Sinai, to the scrublands of the western Lake Chad basin, to picturesque Indian Ocean villages and resort islands in the Southeast. The spike in terrorist attacks mirrors a steady, if less dramatic, increase in Islamist violence in parts of Syria and Iraq, driven by Islamic State fighters who slipped away after the caliphate's defeat and have regrouped. The resurgence threatens to undermine one facet of President Donald Trump's reelection pitch to voters: his oft-repeated claim of victory over the Islamic State. While Trump presided over the final phases of the U.S.-led military campaign to destroy the physical caliphate, the effort to contain the group and its...

Carl_R
Carl_R

That forecast looks about right to me, though the momentum seems to be all in favor of Biden, at least for now.

Greggg
Greggg

Do it all over again if the Biden campaign is forced to admit the quid quo pro. It might already be baked into the cake, but maybe not.

Sechel
Sechel

Trump's own team expects to lose. They are sending out resumes. Trump himself is angry and blaming Meadows. Advisers say he's not focused

JonSellers
JonSellers

On the ground here in a red part of Florida, more Trump signs than Biden signs. But I don't think that means much, 4 years ago there were zero Hillary signs. There's even 2 "Republicans for Biden" signs in my neighborhood.

Drove by a Walmart in town yesterday and there was a Trump rally on the sidewalk with lots of "Honk if you're for Trump" signs and people waving. I only heard one car out of probably 20 honk.

Supervisor of Elections shows the mail-in ballots coming in are majority Democrat. That's a bad sign in a County that's 60% Republican (including me). I'm voting for Biden though I detest the corrupt old dude. I just can't associate myself with the cultists.

Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab

Seeing as Mish has gone out on a limb; here is my My Fearless Debate Forecast.

There will NOT be another debate.

I predict Biden will opt out at the last moment. Highest (30%) probability excuse: he will claim he has tested Covid-19 positive. Soon after, it will be declared a false positive.

Reasoning: In a debate format, Trump will repeatedly bring up the Hunter Biden laptop. Having locked up most mass-media (or minimally/critically covered eg. NYTimes webpage below) Democrats cannot afford to give Trump a platform to reach the nation.

Noting that authenticity has not been rejected by the Bidens or DNC (only by clowns like Clapper), I must assume the emails, photos, and videos are exactly as claimed; and the worst is yet to come--politics is like playing poker. In a debate, there is nothing to stop Trump reading the emails aloud, even holding up a photo of Hunter...

I stand corrected, the Debate Commission has eliminated foreign policy as a topic, and will switch off Trump's microphone to prevent him from telling the nation.

Rocky Raccoon
Rocky Raccoon

Not sure about Iowa and Ohio turning blue. Georgia in blue is sure interesting...

KidHorn
KidHorn

The democrats should be able to easily beat Trump. Their incompetence has given Trump a chance. Given the democrats incompetence, Trump should be able to easily win. But his incompetence is preventing it.

ajc1970
ajc1970

I have Biden at 253. All the blue states plus MN, NV and PA.
I have Trump at 198. All the red states plus OH. I'm including TX, GA and SC as red states, even though Trump has turned them into swing states.

Election boils down to 6 swing states, AZ, MI, WI, NC, FL and... Iowa (shouldn't really be a swing state, but it is in 2020). Biden needs just 2 of those swing states (or put another way, Trump needs to take 5 of the 6.

Gordionknot
Gordionknot

In my neighborhood, in a Deep blue democratic city, Hispanics who voted for Hillary tell me they are secretly voting for President Trump. I'm hispanic. I am voting for El Presidente, also, the name of a beer in our bodegas. President Trump is now a super hero. Even Telemundo knows this. Wake up, Mish. My anecdotal evidence means a landslide for the Republicans. People want jobs. Democrats destroyed the garment district jobs Of New York when they created globalization. We hate our corrupt New York politicians, the mayor, the governor. Biden is corrupt. Biden is weak. Biden is too old for the job. President Trump is a thousand times better.

Paul_L
Paul_L

I will say that if Biden wins then I do think the economy will crash. I also think that business once planning to move out of China back to the US will stay in China. I think China will retain its influence in our media, business, education and corrupt govt officials. I dont think the democrats will support the wall or any restrictions on immigration nor do I think the democrats will support Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Australia or India. All the foreign policy and trade progress made under Trump will be reversed. In a short time I think many people will regret voting for Biden and admit Trump was a bad messenger but had the country on the right track moving in the right direction. I didn't make predictions in 2016 (just hope) and I am not making predictions in 2020 (just hope). If one listens to the media and the prognosticators and the so called experts then its all but a sealed deal for Hillary and now Biden. Many if not most polls are overweight democrats and many if not most Trump voters will say Biden or not admit to voting for Trump because they dont want an argument with their wife, family member, friend or neighbor...nor do they want their car or house vandalized or repercussions at work.


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