Kamala Harris May Kill Democrats' Hopes of Winning the Senate

Mish

Biden's VP running mate, Kamala Harris, may put an end to Democrats' Senate takeover hopes.

Likely to Hurt 

Biden's pick of chameleon opportunist Kamala Harris is unlikely to play well in states the Democrats need to win to take the Senate.

I created the above map on 370-to-Win. 

That link shows my map that you can modify or reset.

What Changed?

My Previous Map had Democrats up 50-47. Now it's 50-49. I suspect Iowans will make my next update 50-50.

If so, Republicans will just need to move Maine back into their column. 

Tie is a Win

A tie is a win for the Democrats assuming Biden wins the election, which I do. But Harris won't help there either. 

The Democrats put another lightning rod on the ticket and that was a poor move. 

Harris Protects Pedophile Priests

Harris Accused of Accepting Bribes

Harris was sued for Imposing strict conditions on the sale of the Daughters of Charity Health System in exchange for millions of dollars in contributions.

Birthers Go After Harris

This is pure silliness on the part of Trump. There are so many legitimate angles on which to attack Harris.

Political Suicide

The Wall Street Journal Op-Ed claims Kamala Harris Won’t Satisfy Progressives

It’s hard to believe that younger black voters will look past Ms. Harris’s record as San Francisco district attorney and California attorney general. “That ‘top cop’ thing has just stuck—she built such a strong brand on it as an AG, as the DA—and it’s hard for people to erase that in their memories,” Chivona Newsome, a co-founder of Black Lives Matter, told the New York Times. Kevin Cooper sits on California’s death row in part because Ms. Harris refused to allow him to obtain advanced DNA testing to demonstrate his innocence. Prosecutors withheld potentially exculpatory evidence in the case of George Gage, and Attorney General Harris fought to keep him in prison on a technicality. He’s 80 and still behind bars.  

Mr. Biden probably won’t enjoy much of a boost from a running mate primarily chosen to appeal to the older black voters who would have turned out for him anyway. He has certainly alienated progressives. 

The hashtag #KamalaIsACop will trend again.

Seven Things

Please consider 7 Key Observations About the Choice of Kamala Harris

I like Points 1 (condensed), 4, 5, and 6. 

1. This is going to be the Harris Administration with Joe as a figurehead. That is not an exaggeration. 

4. Harris is perhaps the most anti-religious freedom candidate on a major party ticket in the modern era. There are numerous examples of this, and it was the actual inception of the beef with Tulsi, after Harris threatened what amounts to a religious test to block members of the Knights of Columbus from the courts. 

5. A touchy debate will play out on black Twitter and Reddit about whether Kamala qualifies as sufficiently black, because she is Jamaican and Indian. It has already begun. Expect this to become a touchy subject that will lead to pieces in The Atlantic and NYT that are handwringing and uncomfortable.

6. Who is not high on Kamala? Young voters, for one: how will college age voters react to this choice, especially if they are in the Sanders wing, which finds Kamala terrible? What about Hispanic voters, who could potentially have problems with her past activities in California and on Catholic issues? How about pro-marijuana voters? There are a number of traditional Democratic coalition members who may not like her.

Short Synopsis

"If you are an anti-war pro-pot Bernie Sanders-liking class warrior type, Kamala does nothing for you. 

She is a “moderate” only in tone, not in position, and according to DW Nominate, she is the second-farthest left Senator in voting record."

Who Does She Please?

Harris does not please the Progressives despite nearly being one of them. But she does not please the centrists either.

In short, this is the kind of wishy-washy, allegedly "safe" choice silliness that appeals to no one who can see what's really going on.

What About the Presidential Election?

Biden's choice will make the election closer.  Trump has someone he can easily attack. 

But despite the fact that Kamala Harris is a Nauseating Political Opportunist, Trump has alienated far too many people to win. 

His Covid handling, the recession, jobs, tariffs, and handling of the George Floyd incident are likely far too much to overcome.

I have Biden as a 70-30 favorite, similar to Nate Silver.

For discussion, please see Biden is a Huge Favorite to Win the Election.

The Senate is now another matter.

Point-CounterPoint Addendum

Reader Claim: The VP pick impacts down ballot races? I think the argument is weak. VP doesn't impact that greatly  Harris probably increases black voter turnout. This seems to be the calculation.

Mish Rebuttal: It may be the "calculation" but I strongly disagree. 

Harris is widely disliked by blacks. Biden romped and stomped her in states with large percentage of minorities.

Some Blacks will sit out the election but most will do what they would do anyway: Vote Democratic.

Rather, it is the marginal White voter who may switch to Trump that matters. 

This could easily tip the election. Recall that Trump won a handful of states by less than a percentage point.

Addendum

I was challenged about Harris being disliked. Distrust is a better word. 

This story nails it:  Black people didn't trust Kamala Harris, and they were wise not to.

Let's not confuse a recent rally behind the nominee for sudden trust. 

People need to rationalize their choice, and the result is a sudden appearance of trust that was not present when it was Biden vs Harris.

Blacks were going to vote Democratic no matter who Biden picked for a running mate. 

The cost is many marginal White voters and that is the key point to this article.

Mish

Comments (35)
No. 1-15
Sechel
Sechel

The vp pick impacts down ballot races? I think the argument is weak. VP doesn't impact that greatly

Harris probably increases black voter turnout. This seems to be the calculation

Mish
Mish

Editor

It may be the "calculation" but I strongly disagree.

Harris is widely disliked by blacks. Biden romped and stomped her in states with large percentage of minorities.

Some Blacks will sit out the election but most will do what they would do anyway: Vote Democratic.

Rather, it is the marginal White voter who may switch to Trump that matters.

This could easily tip the election. Recall that Trump won a handful of states by less than a percentage point.

Quatloo
Quatloo

Interesting article on how Kamala’s Wikipedia page is being continuously sanitized to keep people from learning about the real Kamala

tokidoki
tokidoki

Nah, Trump will win. As I said, he has yet to pull his ultimate Trump Card i.e. Ivanka Trump as President, Donald Trump as Vice President.

#MakeAmericaBlondeAgain will be the greatest thing this nation will ever see.

Heck we now will have TWO TRUMPS on Mount Rushmore.

Augustthegreat
Augustthegreat

Regardless election results or no-results, tRump will stay as the President: he will not accept any defeat. The world will continue to enjoy the Great American Circus.

Realist
Realist

It doesn't matter who Biden picked. It will satisfy some and anger others. Mish himself said that no matter who Biden picked, he wouldn't endorse him.

And if for some reason, choosing Harris somehow prevents the Democrats from winning the senate, I don't see that as a big deal. Given the sad state of politics in America, I don't see how winning the Senate along with the Presidency makes much difference. What did Trump accomplish with both?

And even if you manage to accomplish anything at all, it will be undone in two years when the senate flips sides again.

The two political parties hate each other so much that they seem to have lost the ability to work together for the betterment of the nation. As a result, America will continue in turmoil until somehow, a President gets elected who will manage to unite the country. Trump is the very antithesis of that as the Divider in Chief. I doubt that Biden will be able to unite the nation, but at least he will not intentionally try to further divide the nation.

Tengen
Tengen

It might be best to have a red/blue split between the WH and Capitol Hill. I'm not sure it really matters anymore but gridlock is usually better than the alternative.

For anyone trying to learn more about Harris and what she represents, consider that the neocon crowd (Bill Kristol, Max Boot, etc) are already singing her praises. She's not far left, she's status quo and a warmonger.

nzyank
nzyank

Regardng points 1, 4 & 5:

  1. Of course Biden and Harris are thinking about 2024. While I doubt that any decisions are made yet, they are fully aware that she needs to be able to win a presidential election in 2024. She will hopefully have four years to demonstrate this. If she wants to win, which I think we all agree is the case, and she is smart, which I think we can also generally agree with, then I think she has a reasonable chance of pulling it off. We will learn much more about her over the next four years than we learned about Pence over the last 4 years. The fact that she won't be Biden's lapdog is a good thing. It will help the public make a much more educated vote in 2024.

  2. I’m confused – don’t libertarians support separation of church and state? KofC has become a much more politically assertive organization than it was. For Harris this is is an issue of separation of church and state. Mis-characterizing her concern as anti-religious freedom only serves to undermine libertarian values.

  3. I could care less about twitter nonsense over her ethnic background – why is this point liked?

BillSanDiego
BillSanDiego

In a USA Survey, black support for Biden went from 83% before Harris was picked to 80% after she was named while for Trump it went from 7% before she was named to 15% after. Apparently black people are not enamored of her either. Can Biden win if 15% of blacks vote for Trump?

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

Trump will try to cheat his way to victory. I wrote it here in early summer. Harris is the least of the country's problems. If Trump is allowed to cheat his way to a second term there is no doubt in my mind that there will be civil war and states seceding the union.

Rusty Nail
Rusty Nail

This is some pretty vapid analysis. Lots of wild claims here with little to support them. Harris is widely disliked by blacks? Let's see that polling. She actually has the highest net approval rating out of all 4 running for executive branch. The latest Politico/Morning Consult poll shows 79% of black voters approve of Biden's choice.

davebarnes2
davebarnes2

I am OK with President Harris.
Who will she pick as her VP?

sunny129
sunny129

DOESN'T MATTER what you or others think about Kamala Harris.

I vote ANY ONE even a monkey or a donkey but NOT Trump/Pence Ticket!
TRUMP & his TEAM has to GO!

Mish
Mish

Editor

Harris Disliked or Not Trusted by Blacks?
This story nails it.

Let's not confuse a recent rally behind the nominee for sudden trust.

People need to rationalize their choice, and the result is a sudden appearance of trust that was not present when it was Biden vs Harris.

Blacks were going to vote Democratic no matter who Biden picked for a running mate.

The cost is many marginal White voters and that is the key point to this article.


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