Is Nate Silver Underestimating Democrat Senate Chances in Georgia?
Georgia Regular Senate Election Changing Odds
I believe those odds for Ossoff are way too low for many reasons, the first being the polls themselves.
Second, momentum is clearly on the side of Ossoff.
Third, overall momentum is is on the side of Democrats.
If Biden wins Georgia as expected, the coattails will help Ossoff.
Perdue Withdraws From Debate
Ossoff Calls Perdue a Crook
"Perhaps Senator Perdue would have been able to the Covid-19 pandemic if you hadn't been fending off multiple investigations for insider trading. It's not just that you are a crook Senator, you are attacking the health of the people that you represent. You did say Covid-19 was no deadlier than the flu. You did say there would be no significant uptick in cases. all the while you were looking at your own assets."
I do not know enough about the charges.
But I do know a good debate argument when I hear one and see one. And that was a grand slam.
Coupled with Biden's momentum, I am willing to go out on a limb and say 60-40 Ossoff.
Georgia Special Election
I started writing this post a couple days ago but never finished it. It's better off this way because I was then unaware of the explosive debate above.
At that time Nate Silver had the special election odds as Republican (either Collins or Loeffler) as a 56-44 odds-on winner ober Democrat Warnock.
Now I see Silver favors Warnock 64-36. I think that is about right, but perhaps a tad high.
I last discussed this on October 15 when Silver had the Republican as a 72-28 favorite.
Senate Surprises Flashback
On September 27, I wrote Senate Surprises: What to Look Out For in the Election
538 expects Georgia to vote for Trump by a 50.7 to 48.5 margin. That puts Georgia in play for Biden. It also puts Warnock in play in the January 5 election.
Silver's 17% estimate is thus way too low. The special election will also be influenced by turnout in January adding more uncertainty.
I give Warnock a 40% chance, more than double Silver's estimate.
I rated Warnock over double Silver but was still too low.
In my Fearless Forecast on October 13, I saw it this way.
I expect all three [Georgia, Iowa, Ohio] to break for Biden unless he makes a major gaffe in the next debate, catches Covid, or some other unexpected event happens.
On October 21, in Spotlight Iowa: Monmouth University Has Biden 4 Points Ahead.
I expected the polls to change for Biden, and Iowa just did.
Silver waits for the polls, I will take a reasonable shot when I see one.
I expected the Monmouth poll and there it is.
Silver just flipped again on Iowa, and has been going back and forth for a week. Iowa is again in Trump's column.
I solidly disagree and may revisit Iowa soon. But now Silver has Ohio in the Biden camp.
When you change your mind every day, or even sometimes twice a day you are changing your mind on noise.
That's what we have: noise.
Models Can't Think!
Models cannot and do not do what I just did above. That is take a look at a debate in which Perdue was clearly slaughtered, then make a judgement call on it.
Nor do they properly look at momentum.
There are huge error possibilities in tossing aside polls or predicting them.
But there are also errors being a slave to them.
I am very happy for Silver's forecasts and I find them helpful for my own thinking.
But as I explained to a couple of friends recently, I add no value if all I do is parrot his calls.