In the Presidential Election, 94% Say Their Mind is Made Up

Mish

Biden's maintains a lead in a recent Quinnipiac University Poll but the key finding regards the number of undecided voters.

Biden Lead Steady

Quinnipiac reports Biden Keeps Above 50 Percent Mark With Steady Lead Over Trump.

Key Details

  1. Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump 52 - 42 percent among likely voters in a Quinnipiac University national poll released today. Those numbers are unchanged from a September 2nd national poll when Biden led Trump 52 - 42 percent.
  2. Democrats back Biden 96 - 2 percent, independents back him 49 - 41 percent, and Republicans back Trump 91 - 7 percent.
  3. Ninety-four percent of likely voters who selected a candidate for president say their minds are made up, while 5 percent say they might change their minds.

Shrinking Pool of Undecideds

Biden's lead is steady in national polls, but that is not where the election will be won or lost.

The key detail in the survey is the shrinking pool of people whose minds are not already made up.

Importance of the Undecided Voter

In 2017, Nate Silver commented on the State of the , Undecided Voter heading into the 2016 election.

In 2016, Clinton’s lead was considerably more fragile than it appeared from national polls. Not only was she underperforming in the Electoral College because of the way her demographic coalition was configured (see the first article in this series for more about that) but a much larger number of voters — about 13 percent on Election Day and as many as 20 percent at earlier stages of the campaign — were either undecided or said they planned to vote for third-party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein. Those undecided voters made Clinton’s lead much less safe and they broke strongly toward Donald Trump at the end of the race. Trump won voters who decided in the last week of the campaign by a 59-30 margin in Wisconsin, 55-38 in Florida, 54-37 in Pennsylvania and 50-39 in Michigan, according to exit polls, which was enough to flip the outcome of those four states and their 75 combined electoral votes.

Where are the Undecideds?

On October 25, 2016, Nate Silver asked Where Are The Undecided Voters?

About 15 percent of the electorate isn’t yet committed to Clinton or Trump, as compared to just 5 percent who weren’t committed to President Obama or Mitt Romney at this point in 2012. That’s one of the reasons why our models still give Trump an outside chance at victory. In theory, with Clinton at “only” 46 percent of the vote, he could beat her by winning almost all of the undecided and third-party voters. 

Overall, Clinton’s chances are 85 percent in our polls-only forecast and 83 percent in polls-plus, not meaningfully changed over the past few days.

Theory happened aided by an FBI twist.

2016 Comparison Flaws

  • There were not enough state polls.
  • 15% undecided voters. 
  • Non-college educated white voters were undersampled. Trump won two-thirds of white voters without college degrees to overcome huge problems elsewhere.
  • Hillary was as disliked as Trump whereas Biden is viewed much more favorably.

FBI Bombshell

It still took a last second bombshell announcement by James Comey to seal the fate. 

Consider 4 Pieces of Evidence Showing FBI Director James Comey Cost Clinton the Election.

Let's not mince words. Clinton is responsible for her loss. However, Trump would not have won without Comey.

Many people expect a 2016 repeat, but there are too many key difference between now and 2016 to believe as many do, "The polls are wrong". 

The more pertinent questions regard Trump and Republican interference in mail-in voting and what Trump might do if no victor is declared election evening.

Mish

Comments (72)
No. 1-14
PecuniaNonOlet
PecuniaNonOlet

With 40 days to go, I would vote for a penguin over Trump. I would normally try to pick out the best candidates from either party for other seats but this time around, will hold my nose and vote blue all the way down....will be the fastest vote ever!

And yes, I have TDS and GOPDS.

Rocky Raccoon
Rocky Raccoon

I am a former Trump voter. How does one continue to support Trump if they were against Obama's deficits and debt creation, the threat of gun control, the socialist bailouts and handouts, the Planned Parenthood funding, etc.? Apparently those weren't the real reasons many Trump supporters opposed Obama.

I am amazed how quiet these people are as #MAGA looks like hope and change to me.

NewUlm
NewUlm

I guess I fall in the 94%, but I will not be voting for either Biden or Trump. I hope more people support 3P candidates or we can just expect more of the same.

Augustthegreat
Augustthegreat

“Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.” Now we know the results after 4 years, and it’s amazing to see trumptards are expecting miracle for another 4/8/12/lifelong years

Webej
Webej

‘Likely’ voters is the key phrase.
How many people with an opinion are going to actually cast a ballot?
That is difficult to assay in advance and quite variable.

As for Hillary, it was not Comey that did her in but breaking the law with classified emails.

FactsonJoe
FactsonJoe

The undersampling of Republicans continues in polls.

In 2016 according to exit polls 33% of voters were Republicans and this poll has 29% Republicans in it.
This is not the worst offender, some polls have had 24% and 25% Republicans in the poll.

Most likely the the 2020 presidential election will have about 33% Republicans like 2016.

So let's take -4% from Biden's polled 52% and put +4% into Trump's polled 42% and we get Biden 48% and Trump 46%.

The election is wide open and not one debate has happened yet.
It is all about electoral college like last time since Biden will probably win the total votes and get 2-3 million more than Trump thanks to California and New York like Clinton did.

I hope Trump PREPS for the debate because there have been claims that Trump is NOT prepping for the debate because he is so full of himself and believes he does not need to prep.

Biden is PREPPING everyday and the Presidential Debates Commission put out the topics for the first debate to help Joe Biden PREP better.

Trump is a FOOL if he does not prep for the debate and have somebody act as Biden and repeating all the lies media has manufactured non-stop.

Biden is a bit out of it mentally either due to cognitive impairment from the brain aneurysms he had in the late 1980's and that were treated with the then medical technology or maybe Biden is developing dementia.

Biden is using a teleprompter even when doing interviews as revealed by the reflection on the picture Biden held up when doing an interview in a studio and sometimes on Biden's virtual interviews Biden is gesturing with his other hand by keeping it low and gesturing upwards likely because the teleprompter is not at the correct text for him to answer and sometimes Biden speaks total gibberish like "“We hold these truths to be self-evident,all men and women created by — you know, you know, the thing.” about the declaration of independence.

In one appearance Biden said that 200 million Americans have died from Covid and a few days later Biden said that 200 Americans have died from Covid so Biden is not all there anymore.

Greggg
Greggg

My mind is never made up. I voted for Trump, and against Hillary Clinton. I wouldn't have voted for Trump if I knew what he was going to do, but I do not rescind what I did given the "choice". I'd still vote against Clinton anyway. This time around I am voting against Trump and Biden. It's gonna be a Ron Paul write in vote. Now, I am going to go into my email and log into the 2020 Annenberg Election Study Panel and do another survey to see what "they" are up to.

davebarnes2
davebarnes2

Better headline: 6% of voters are retards.

wmjack
wmjack

Four years of the DC Swamp and media attempted coup against TRUMP has clarified
The truth for many intelligent voters. TRUMP vs the swamp has changed politics forever.

Realist
Realist

As Trump himself has said many times, if every eligible voter was allowed to vote, the Republicans would never win another election.

In fact, on 4 separate occasions, Republican presidents have won without winning the popular vote.

As Mish frequently points out, this is because of the electoral college system, and Republicans focusing heavily on swing states.

It is also due to voter suppression techniques that Republicans often employ.

Trump has been going all out during this campaign to try to rig things so that he can win again. He is setting the scene to be able to question and legally challenge the election results, should he lose the electoral college as a result of the vote counts.

He is doing everything possible to sow confusion by messing with the post office, attempting to reduce the number of voting locations, mail out incorrect information about the voting process, encourage people to vote twice, and constantly question the integrity of the upcoming election.

As Casual Observer referenced with that Forbes article, which itself references an Atlantic article: Trump is hoping to invalidate voting results in several states, by first alleging the existence of rampant fraud and then asking legislators in battleground states where the Republicans have a legislative majority to bypass the state’s popular vote and instead to choose electors loyal to the GOP and the sitting president.

With that strategy, it won’t matter how many votes Biden gets.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

It looks like the polls have corrected for the polling error they made in 2016. That is bad news for Trump because he should be at least even electorally. Trump still has a shot because people are weary of Covid-19 and just want to resume normal life even if that means a few hundred thousand more people die. I have no idea why people would want to work themselves to death for making less $ per hour in order make the 1% richer but this is America in a nutshell. The only method of getting wealthier for the 99% is real estate and investments in the casino-like stock market, which are both rigged by the Fed.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

If Trump somehow pulls this off, I fully expect Don Jr. to "run" in 2024 and complete the full Putin-ization of America. 2016 may have been the last real election we ever had but there is redacted evidence that Trump colluded with Russia via Wikileaks. We now know Deustche bank also funneled money to Trump from Russia. So the last fair Presidential election in America may have been in 2012. Congratulations to Vladimir Putin as he is probably sitting somewhere laughing thinking about how to poison Navalny again. He is in firm control of the world now.

KidHorn
KidHorn

I read that Trump's support among Blacks and Hispanics is significantly higher now than in 2016. It doesn't jive with him being down by 10%. Something doesn't add up.