How Trump's Covid Handling Wrecked His Election Chances

Mish

Polls show Trump's Covid Handling wrecked his chances of winning in  November.

Trump's Approval Rating on Real Clear Politics

The above chart is from Real Clear Politics. 

I like the fact that it has a user-adjustable timeline. On March 27, Trump shrank his disapproval rating to two percentage points. 

That coincides with a smaller than normal rally-around-the-president rally towards the beginning of the Covid crisis. 

FiveThirtyEight has a similar chart but it is not adjustable. 

Trump's Approval Rating on FiveThirtyEight

How Popular is Donald Trump 538 July 20 A

538 vs Real Clear Politics

  • 538 Spread on March 27: -3.9
  • 538 Spread July 20: -15.0
  • 538 Change: -11.1
  • RCP Spread on March 27: -2.0
  • RCP Spread on July 20: -14.2
  • RCP Change: -12.2

Trump's Covid Handling Approval

Trump's Covid Handling Approval July 20

Trump's covid-handling approval score fell from -3.0 on March 27 to -19.4 on July 20.

Trump's Covid Handling Approval by Political Party

Trump's Covid Handling Approval by Party july 20

Since March 27, Trump's Covid-handling approval by independents shrank by 13.1 percentage points. 

That is right between the RCP and 538 drops of -14.2 and -11.1 overall popularity rankings.

Americans Increasingly Dislike How Republican Governors Are Handling The Coronavirus Outbreak

FiveThirtyEight reports Americans Increasingly Dislike How Republican Governors Are Handling The Coronavirus Outbreak

This could easily cost Republicans the Senate in November.

What Trump Said 

Trump is on the Short End of the Enthusiasm Gap

Biden Hold a Net Enthusiam Advantage

As noted on July 17, Trump is on the Short End of the Enthusiasm Gap

While Biden voters may not be all that excited about voting for Biden, they’re very enthusiastic about voting against Trump. And that gives Biden a pretty strong edge, because Trump supporters don’t despise Biden the way they despised Hillary Clinton in 2016. 

Once again, this is due to Trump's appealing to the base at the expense of losing huge swaths of independents.

Not Just Covid

Amazingly Bad Move

NPR reports Majority Of Americans Say Trump Increased Racial Tensions After George Floyd's Death, Poll Finds

On June 3, Trump pulled a ridiculous bible stunt in an Amazingly Bad Move that many Republicans blasted.

And he keeps at it.

Appeal to the Base Silliness

As I have commented before, it is a huge mistake for Trump to appeal to the base.

  • Trump has core support, the alleged "silent majority" of about 36%. They will vote for Trump no matter what he says or does.
  • Similarly, those who despise Trump would not vote for him if he cured Covid tomorrow. 

Trump has lost the vote of independents and it will be extremely difficult to win them back, especially the over 65 crown in Florida. 

Mish

Comments (106)
No. 1-28
Zardoz
Zardoz

ALL he had to do is let the CDC handle it, and make comforting speeches. That's it.

bubblelife
bubblelife

Texas independent here. Trump lost me when the stay at home order ended here and he politicized mask wearing. Now Ted Cruz is surprised that Texas is turning blue. Stupid is as stupid does.

ToInfinityandBeyond
ToInfinityandBeyond

The fact that the Republican Senate majority is now under threat should serve as a wake up call to the GOP. The Covid virus shows no sign of being brought under control any time soon given the idiotic Governors who refuse to adopt the steps necessary to effectively manage the outbreak. Time to throw the Donald under the bus.

simb555
simb555

the silent majority will prevail just like in 2016. You are out of your depth in politics and gauging how the silent majority thinks. Stick to what you know such as economics.

PecuniaNonOlet
PecuniaNonOlet

Independent voter here, I am not enthusiastic about sleeping Joe but I will likely hold my nose and vote Democrat all the way down the line because I currently despise Trump and the idiot GOP members that keep making the wrong and stupid decisions everyday when it comes to Corona. And yeah trading in one devil for another may seem pointless but I at least want to survive the next few years. That wont happen with the current circus running the show.

Anda
Anda

From what I remember he wrong footed/ was wrong footed with the implementation of testing and a whole load of bad advice from who and international. After that he just moved towards making it all "business as usual" as far as possible, probably a personal reason he sidelined cdc, like they messed up somewhere. Leaving decisions to the states is right to my view because that is more representative, not sure if ratings have dropped more because this all takes leadership position away from him or because he is "occasionally over-optimistic". It's an unusual change because he was amongst the more serious about keeping the virus out of the US. So this all has challenged him and he just replies with what he stands for, which obviously doesn't suit everyone and becomes more of the issue say with independents than it would otherwise be.

To answer a question.

Augustthegreat
Augustthegreat

Many may not like Biden, but hate ferociously tRump. That’s about it for this coming election.

MiTurn
MiTurn

Mish,

Off topic, but the monsoon season should be starting up soon and give you a break from the heat.

Zardoz
Zardoz

Looks like he's starting to come around to the idea that he done goofed:

... and now some of his followers aren't sure what bus they need to be on.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

His worst time has not yet arrived. There is multiple October surprises coming. We should hope he doesnt try to stop the election or create another emergency that requires martial law. Somewhere between 2016 and 2020 Trump lost his marbles. He has behaved more erratically at each turn of his administration.

borderdenizen
borderdenizen
Trump’s campaign manager is a felon.
His deputy campaign manager is a felon.
His national security advisor is a felon.
His foreign policy advisor is a felon. His personal lawyer is a felon.
His long time advisor is a felon.
It’s not a campaign, it’s a criminal enterprise.
AshH
AshH

4 strikes against Trump, in my book:

  1. Obstructing justice in the Mueller investigation (volume 2 of the report).
  2. Using public funds for his personal benefit (withholding aid to Ukraine in exchange for an announcement of an investigation into a political foe).
  3. His response to the Coronavirus (or complete lack thereof).
  4. Commuting Roger Stone's jail time & fines.

Repubs beware. Turn a blind eye and you have lost all moral authority if a Dem does any of these.

Anda
Anda

This is off-topic but the discussion was being held too far back for me to search it up easily. The context was positivity in coronavirus tests in the US as metric, both local and by international comparison. So I got round to briefly looking for flaws or distortion and recent articles on that appeared. The WTPS article was not accessible except in cache, removed from wayback (broken link is wtsp dot com/article/news/health/coronavirus/epidemiologist-says-data-can-be-misleading-and-coronavirus-is-spreading-in-florida...) but there they say that higher positivity is due to targeted testing. Meanwhile

alleges misreporting. Other sites say bias exists in terms of mixing serology with pcr.

In Spain 50% of those tested as having the virus (75% in Cataluña) have no known contact with other infected, meaning likely they were tested because of symptoms, implying background of infection is much higher but also that positivity is not relatable to methods used in the US. I don't know, I just don't trust any of the data anymore besides number of infected daily as very rough guide, and hospitalisations as lagging indicator. It is really useless that we aren't given clear data, and worse when the figures or presentation are found purposefully manipulated.

channelstuffing
channelstuffing

Trump and Obama will be the only 2 presidents in modern history to run for reelection in a permanently collapsed economy,Obama (somehow???)managed to get reelected after 4 years of basically doin nothing!Can Trump pull off the same miracle?Or does he even want to!Next prez will have to deal with car bombs at the WH,sand bags to stop 60mm mortar rds from hitting the oval office!

tokidoki
tokidoki

Pretty soon Trump will ask for an infrastructure bill that will build a couple of concentration camps within the US.

gregggg
gregggg

This guy made the closest prediction of the election in 2016. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yvYCqrXYhYo

PT109
PT109

Mish.....the polls you have mentioned in the past and the Covid Pandemic will not be enough to get Biden elected.
I think Trump gets elected again because the Dem Party is and will be Poison for America.
Don't believe me.... here is a quote from Eric Weinstein's twitter page today who is a managing director of Thiel Capital in San Francisco

Eric Weinstein
@EricRWeinstein
·
12h
A surprising number of Left-leaning people are confiding to me that they are planning to vote for Trump for two different stated leading reasons:

A) Biden’s Mental decline.

B) What is happening in the Pacific Northwest w Democratic Mayors/Govenors experimenting w non-policing.

awc13
awc13

its game over, experts say biden has a 99% chance of winning

bradw2k
bradw2k

Trump's hail mary seems to be hoping that a few rental cars of fed cops in Portland will swell the idiotic riots (check), cause the Dems to do even less about lawless destruction (check), and then normal people will actually become disgusted/scared of having Dems in power. I don't think it'll work well enough to get him re-elected, but kudos for pushing the country one step closer to civil war.

jacob_zuma
jacob_zuma

If the elections were held tomorrow, Trump would probably lose big time. But who know what will happen between now & November.

JustDaFactsJack
JustDaFactsJack

People don't understand the 4D chess this president plays.

Earlier in the year, when he said "it will disappear like magic," people were thinking he was referring to the coronavirus.

He wasn't.

He was referring to the Republican Party as a significant national political force.

On January 20th, say hello to President Biden, Speaker Pelosi and Majority Leader Schumer.

And Republicans will have done it to themselves by allowing this Trump bozo to lead them down the garden path to ruin, displacing their critical faculties in order to chase the siren song of populism.

Bungalow Bill
Bungalow Bill

I am a former Trump voter. It was the biggest mistake I have ever made at the ballot box. I honestly didn't expect much from him, but I at least hoped he would fight to reduce government spending, get Obamacare FULLY repealed, and stand up for our gun rights. He has failed in all three. Oh, I should add get us out of the endless wars--another failure as he vetoed legislation that would get us out of Vietnam.

On the other hand, I didn't vote for Romney in 2012 because of Romneycare and went with Gary Johnson. Now I wish we had a grownup in the room like Romney over Trump, whose presidential legacy is really stealing the "victim card" out of Jesse Jackson's pocket. Trump and his supporters continue to think he is a victim of a hoax, and it's pathetic at this point.

Jackn
Jackn

This for a perspective:
Millions of people are not directly effected by the virus. Many more die from heart attacks

STATE Population Deaths
NY 19000000 32500

Tx 28000000 3600

FL 21000000 4500

GA 10000000 3100

AZ 7000000 3200

wmjack
wmjack

When the coup leaders are cuffed the vote will go to Trump

FrankG
FrankG

Given the lunacy of Trump and the Democrats, this is a lose, lose election for the American people, especially if the incompetent GOP ends up losing the Senate too. Both paths lead to long term economic and political instability. If Biden picks a moderate VP (which, let's face it, will likely become President given his diminished intellect) that will provide a ray of hope, but my guess is that's not going to happen since moderates are pretty much anathema to the party's extremists.

Carl_R
Carl_R

Trump's failure in responding to Covid actually began a month earlier, on February 26, when he said it was "completely controlled". Before his Feb. 26th speech, I texted a friend "I hope he has a good speech writer on it. His tweets that everything was fine, juxtaposed with the CDC ... was a very bad start. After the speech I said "..he bungled it pretty badly. I can't see him winning in November now."

February 26 was the day he abandoned his win-win position. Had he treated Covid seriously, he would have won easily if Covid turned out to bad, and he would not have been blamed for the economy, plus he would have won if it turned out to be nothing. By downplaying it, he handed the win-win position to the Democrats, and gambled that it would be nothing, a gamble he lost.


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