How Trump's Covid Handling Wrecked His Election Chances
Trump's Approval Rating on Real Clear Politics
The above chart is from Real Clear Politics.
I like the fact that it has a user-adjustable timeline. On March 27, Trump shrank his disapproval rating to two percentage points.
That coincides with a smaller than normal rally-around-the-president rally towards the beginning of the Covid crisis.
FiveThirtyEight has a similar chart but it is not adjustable.
Trump's Approval Rating on FiveThirtyEight
538 vs Real Clear Politics
- 538 Spread on March 27: -3.9
- 538 Spread July 20: -15.0
- 538 Change: -11.1
- RCP Spread on March 27: -2.0
- RCP Spread on July 20: -14.2
- RCP Change: -12.2
Trump's Covid Handling Approval
Trump's covid-handling approval score fell from -3.0 on March 27 to -19.4 on July 20.
Trump's Covid Handling Approval by Political Party
Since March 27, Trump's Covid-handling approval by independents shrank by 13.1 percentage points.
That is right between the RCP and 538 drops of -14.2 and -11.1 overall popularity rankings.
Americans Increasingly Dislike How Republican Governors Are Handling The Coronavirus Outbreak
FiveThirtyEight reports Americans Increasingly Dislike How Republican Governors Are Handling The Coronavirus Outbreak
This could easily cost Republicans the Senate in November.
What Trump Said
Trump is on the Short End of the Enthusiasm Gap
As noted on July 17, Trump is on the Short End of the Enthusiasm Gap
While Biden voters may not be all that excited about voting for Biden, they’re very enthusiastic about voting against Trump. And that gives Biden a pretty strong edge, because Trump supporters don’t despise Biden the way they despised Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Once again, this is due to Trump's appealing to the base at the expense of losing huge swaths of independents.
Not Just Covid
On June 3, Trump pulled a ridiculous bible stunt in an Amazingly Bad Move that many Republicans blasted.
And he keeps at it.
Appeal to the Base Silliness
As I have commented before, it is a huge mistake for Trump to appeal to the base.
- Trump has core support, the alleged "silent majority" of about 36%. They will vote for Trump no matter what he says or does.
- Similarly, those who despise Trump would not vote for him if he cured Covid tomorrow.
Trump has lost the vote of independents and it will be extremely difficult to win them back, especially the over 65 crown in Florida.