Final Polls Before the Election: What Do They Say?

Mish

The above snake represents Nate Silver's outlook as of 1:42 Easter on Sunday November 3.

Live Blog

Some polls are expected today that are not yet in. I will add new polls, if any, to the end of this post.

What's Changed?

Not much today. 

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1322909098141224961?s=20

Spotlight Iowa

Yesterday Selzer came out with an Iowa poll that has Trump plus 7. 

Whiich Polls Influencing Iowa 2020-11-01

On the basis of A+rated Selzer, Silver moved Trump's odds of winning to 64%. 

Iowa How the Forecast has changed

Polls Today

The polls today are more Biden-friendly.

What Polls Remain?

Strike YouGov off the list. They averaged their polls and made predictions. Silver does not factor in predictions.

The Undecideds 

The undecideds seem to breaking for Trump, but there were far fewer of them. 

Legal Battle

I do not care who you are for, you should want an honest election where votes are counted. 

Team Trump does not want votes counted. 

Even worse, Texas and Minnesota Republicans purposely allowed procedures and are now fighting them after over 100,000 votes have been cast.

Pennsylvania is in a similar situation due to unclear Supreme Court rulings.

The legal battles are as I described yesterday in Republican Attempt to Steal the Election Has No Bounds

My Fearless Election Forecast and Range of Outcomes

Iowa is suspect but unless things change further I am sticking with my forecast as of October 13.

Please see My Fearless Election Forecast and Range of Outcomes for discussion. 

The three states I highlighted then are the same states that I still have close to 50-50 today: Ohio, Iowa, and Georgia. 

I still see record turnout as favoring Biden and I do not believe that is properly factored in.

Not 2016

This is not 2016 so don't expect a repeat. For discussion, please see Eight Reasons This is Not 2016

New Polls 

None as of 12 Noon November 1.

Mish

Comments (41)
No. 1-9
Eddie_T
Eddie_T

Maybe Iowa goes for Trump.....but if NC goes for Biden then it won't matter.....that more than makes up for Iowa.

Biden by bedtime....

Btw, for all those who want more financial and economic articles from Mish....I'm sure he's looking forward to getting back to that too. I'm looking forward to it, and to arguing with him about more savory topics.

Doug78
Doug78

Myself I am looking forward to seeing this over. Everyone in the political media is predicting chaos, mayhem, destruction,civil war, continuing bad haircuts and popular music getting worse and worse. I am curious to see what really happens after. Anyone want to take some bets?

TonGut
TonGut

Scary thought: Say Trump loses and concedes. Will he ride off into off into the sunset like Obama, Bush, Clinton, etc.? Not to be heard from again (except for the occasional campaign support).

Or will he be a soar loser for the rest of his life tying to prove that his presidency was the greatest in history?

Will the Republicans still cower as Trump continues to endlessly blame and lambast.

Or will his loss shut him up for good?

AnotherJoe
AnotherJoe

I expect Trump to win. He will win because he will cheat. His life has been built on lies and on cheating: Every woman he has married he cheated on. Every loan he has gotten he lied to get it. Every deal he has made he has cheated on it. For Trump lying and cheating is a way of life that has worked for him so he will do it again.

Realist
Realist

My suspicion is that a large number of Americans want this election over. And more of them are voting than ever before, because they want to get rid of Trump. Because they are simply exhausted of 4 years of the Trump show, a non-stop, in-your-face series of tweets and lies, bragging about how great he is and how lame everyone else is. But the icing on the cake is the pandemic, which clearly showed what a complete moron he is. Any other president would have stood in front of the nation and led by example. Trump was incapable of doing that and instead of being a slam dunk to get re-elected, he is trying hard to steal the election by disqualifying votes.

Worst President ever.

I am looking forward to watching it all play out. Will Trump and his Republican judges manage to steal the election? There is a good chance they will try, and a slim possibility they will succeed.

There are good reasons that many businesses are boarding up their buildings ahead of the election, just as they would ahead of a hurricane. A hurricane of unrest may soon engulf the country.

America, may you live in interesting times.

Dodge Demon
Dodge Demon

Sigmund Stanislaus “Sig” Sakowicz was always my favorite Pole in Chicago. Great radio shows.

FactsonJoe
FactsonJoe

More shutdowns and lockdowns like Joe Biden has promised are NOT winning issues.

bradw2k
bradw2k

Put me down for: there's not going to be election "stealing," chaos, or civil war. Maybe some courts have to decide some things. Maybe.

But I also predict ceaseless hysterical predictions of chaos across all social media.


Global Politics

FEATURED
COMMUNITY