Fearless Forecast: What to Expect on Super Tuesday

Mish

State by state, I take a look at the latest polls and project delegate counts.

Field Reduced to Five

Pete Buttigieg dropped out of the race on Sunday.

Tom Steyer did so on Saturday.

These eliminations benefit Biden more than anyone else.

California

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Bernie Sanders' big hope is California.

The CNN poll, if accurate, would net Sanders nearly every delegate in California.

The YouGov poll is quite different. If accurate Sanders would get 31 / (31+19+18) percent of the delegates. Call it 46% of 416 or 191.

But thanks to Buttigieg and Steyer dropping out Biden and Bloomberg rate to benefit the most. Also Biden rates to get some bounce following California.

This is the hardest state to predict by far.

The best case scenario for Sanders is that he wins the entire state.

A four-way split along the lines of Sanders 30, Biden 18, Warren 16, Bloomberg 16 is a distinct possibility. In that outcome, Sanders would get 30 / (30+18+16+16) percent of the delegates. That would be roughly 37.5% or 156 delegates.

Given that Warren delegates would likely support Sanders in a contested convention, a three-way split excluding Warren would be even worse for Sanders although he would top 40% of the delegates.

Three-way and four-way splits are the path of a contested convention.

Here's one final factor: Momentum.

Sanders lead went from 21 to 19 to 12 in the last three polls. This benefits the other candidates.

My California Call

  • Sanders: 33 - 42% of the delegates - 175 delegates
  • Biden: 21 - 28% of the delegates - 116 delegates
  • Warren: 16 - 15% of the Delegates - 63 delegates
  • Bloomberg: 16 - 15% of the delegates - 62 delegates

Note: On a strict mathematical basis Warren and Bloomberg would get 18% of the delegates (75 delegates each). But in some districts they will not hit the 15% threshold even if they top 15% nationally.

Texas

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Biden and to a lesser extent Bloomberg will pick up delegates from Buttigieg. The key factor once again is whether or not Warren and Bloomberg hit the threshold. I suspect warren will win some delegates but fall short of 15% statewide.

My Texas Call

  • Sanders: 29 - 38% of the delegates - 87 delegates
  • Biden: 26 - 35% of the delegates - 80 delegates
  • Warren: 13 - 5% of the Delegates - 11 delegates
  • Bloomberg: 16 - 22% of the delegates - 50 delegates

Virginia

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These polls are a bit stale. I expect a big bounce for Biden here.

My Virginia Call

  • Sanders: 25 - 35% of the delegates - 35 delegates
  • Biden: 27 - 39% of the delegates - 39 delegates
  • Bloomberg: 18 - 26% of the delegates - 25 delegates

North Carolina

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With a Biden bounce, he should win North Carolina.

​My North Carolina Call

  • Sanders: 22 - 31% of the delegates - 34 delegates
  • Biden: 30 - 44% of the delegates - 49 delegates
  • Bloomberg: 16 - 25% of the delegates - 27 delegates

Minnesota

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I expect a bit of a Klobuchar Bounce

​My Minnesota Call

  • Sanders: 21 - 40% of the delegates - 30 delegates
  • Klobuchar: 31 - 60% of the delegates - 45 delegates

Massachusetts

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Once again a Buttigieg dropout helps Biden. But how much? I envision a 4-way split and a surprise win or tie for Warren. Call it a tie.

​My Massachusetts Call

  • Sanders: 25 - 38% of the delegates - 35 delegates
  • Warren: 25 - 38% of the delegates - 35 delegates
  • Bloomberg: 15 - 12% of the delegates - 11 delegates
  • Biden: 15 - 12% of the delegates - 10 delegates

If Biden and Bloomberg do not top 15% in every district they will not get 15% of the delegates. That is my call.

Colorado

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My Colorado Call

  • Sanders: 27 - 42% of the delegates - 28 delegates
  • Warren: 19 - 34% of the delegates - 23 delegates
  • Bloomberg: 15 - 12% of the delegates - 8 delegates
  • Biden: 15 - 12% of the delegates - 8 delegates

If Biden and Bloomberg do not top 15% in every district they will not get 15% of the delegates. That is my call.

Subtotals

Sanders: 175 CA + 87 TX + 35 VA + 34 NC + 30 MN +35 MA + 28 CO = 424

Biden: 116 CA + 80 TX + 39 VA + 49 NC +10 MA + 8 CO = 302

Warren 63 CA + 13 TX +35 MA + 23 CO = 134

Bloomberg 62 CA + 50 TX + 25 VA + 27 NC +11 MA +8 CO = 183

Klobuchar: 45 MN = 45

Alabama, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Utah, Arkansas, Maine and Vermont are also Super Tuesday states.

I expect Biden to win Alabama, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Tennessee. Sanders will win Utah. Maine, and Vermont.

Give Biden another 130 out of those extra states, Sanders another 95, Bloomberg another 40, and Warren another 12.

Super Tuesday Delegate Totals

  • Sanders: 519
  • Biden: 432
  • Warren: 146
  • Bloomberg: 203
  • Klobuchar: 45

Sanders vs Not Sanders

  • Sanders: 519
  • Not Sanders: 826

Liberals vs Moderates

  • Sanders + Warren = 665
  • Moderates = 680

If anything close to what I project happens, the odds of a contested convention will skyrocket.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (6)
No. 1-4
KidHorn
KidHorn

I don't get Sanders popularity in California. Seems to be the state that Sanders would target above all others.

Mish
Mish

Editor

Bernie: CA TX CO NV ME VT UT – 7 or 8

Biden: VA NC AL TN OK AK - 6

Klobuchar: MN - 1

Warren: possibly MA - 0 or 1

Not impossible for Biden to win TX. Biden at risk in VA so Sanders could get 9

Range Biden: 4-7
Range Sanders 5-9

I went with the middle, but upgraded Biden for two reasons: Momentum + Buttigieg dropout.

truthseeker
truthseeker

It seems like to me that a brokered convention that ends up with any other nominee than Sanders could be a disaster for the Democrats or maybe not. In this weekend’s WSJ Peggy Noonan has an excellent article “Trump Isn’t Easing Coronavirus Forebodings” where she wonders if the president understands what jeopardy he’s in. So the first thing Trump needs to do is to tell the American people that his concern about the stock market and his re-election are totally meaningless compared to the safety of all Americans. Then he needs to pull in all the people he has so far on his team and develop a strategy that requires a kind of leadership to deal with a crisis of such dimension that if we are not prepared, and if it hits America hard, a lot will change-the national mood, cultural habits and the economy perhaps forever. He needs to unite the country to give us confidence we can depend on him more than anything else.

SunnyvaleCA
SunnyvaleCA

Klobuchar has dropped out. Does this change your Minnesota predictions?


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