Extremely Difficult Setup for Trump to Win in November

Mish

Trump is in an electoral college bind. A map shows just how hard it will be for him to in in November.

If you do not like my map, you can create your own at 270toWin.

But before you create your own map or ridicule mine, you might wish to look at some current polls, state-by-state.

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania 2020-04-28 A

Florida

Florida 2020-04-28 #2

Michigan

Michigan 2020-04-28 #2

Arizona

Arizona 2020-04-28 #2

North Carolina

North Carolina 2020-04-28 #2

Three Crucial Swing States for Trump

  1. Florida
  2. North Carolina
  3. Ohio 

Even if Trump wins those states, if the above map holds, Trump loses in November. 

Pennsylvania is Key

The biggest swing state headed for Biden is Pennsylvania with 20 Electoral College Votes.

Note that a Fox News poll conducted April 18-21 gives Biden an 8-point lead. 

If Biden wins Pennsylvania, he can still lose Virginia and all the states I marked as tossups then still win (270 on the nose).

My map is actually generous to Trump. Mentally I have Florida as slightly leans Biden and Nevada as leans Biden.  

Nevada

I discounted Nevada due to lack of recent polls.

If Biden were to win Nevada, then he could lose two out of these three states I have in Biden's column (Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota), again assuming he carries Pennsylvania which is my one key assumption based on the polls.

Virginia 

Virginia 2020-04-28 #2

Ohio and What We Don't Know

I rate Ohio as a tossup due to lack of polls. Ohio is crucial to Trump so mentally move that into his column if you prefer. 

Without any polls I suspect Iowa may be in play. And if it turns into a rout, not exactly unlikely, even Texas could be in play for Biden.

Path to Victory

Biden has multiple paths to victory as described above, presuming he wins Pennsylvania which is now my base case.

Trump needs to win all the tossups AND two more states or Pennsylvania. He has an extremely narrow path to victory.

Liberate Michigan 

Michigan

Note that Fox News gives Biden an 8-point lead in Michigan. This is despite (or because) of soaring Michigan unemployment, perhaps as high as 30%.

For details, please see For details, please see Over 25% of Michigan Workforce Filed For Unemployment.

Yet, Despite Massive Unemployment, Michigan Disagrees With Trump.

Governor Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat, has a Covid-19 approval rating of 57%. Liberate Michigan, Liberate Minnesota, and Liberate Virginia  backfired. 

I discussed the above Tweets in Huge Battle Over Covid-19 Tests and Trump's Liberation Tweets.

Words of Caution

It's not impossible for Trump to win in November, but it is difficult. 

These polls are early. November is still 6 months away but the election map, Trump's handing of Covid-19, the recession, and the thought of 4 more years of Trump to swing voters all weigh against Trump.

This is Not 2016

Finally, this is not 2016. Many swing voters gave Trump a nod in in 2016 simply because they despised Hillary. 

Many of those same swing voters have had enough of Trump's divisive treatment of allies, his belittling of everyone but himself, and his handling of Covid-19.

Mish

Comments (87)
No. 1-35
Sechel
Sechel

I won't disagree with the map. I'm not capable of making a better guess but it makes intuitive sense given Trump's performance since Covid-19 hit the scene. Not only would Biden win but I suspect Democrats would retake the Senate a not so crazy scenario given more Republican seats are up than Democratic ones and several Republicans are not polling well.

I urge caution however. A lot can change in six months. Trump has way more money in his coffers than Biden. He has the bully pulpit too. He can and will go negative on Biden. I don't see Trump suddenly winning over new voters and I doubt that is his plan but he will attempt to convince some Democrats that Biden is just as bad as Trump and convince them to sit out the election. He'll say Biden is a misogynist, that he acted with corrupt intent in Ukraine etc, all things Trump has done but Trump's base doesn't care. Biden's base may.

My point is Trump has an uphill battle but he has several strengths to play off of.

gregggg
gregggg

I'm going to make my vote mean something this year, I'm voting for Ron Paul. At least I will make them physically dig through the ballots to find out who I wrote in. Other than that, all tax issues get a "no".

caradoc-again
caradoc-again

Biden will wish he hadn't won.

pimaC
pimaC

You're right, based on current polls if the election were held today, Trump would probably not win. However, a lot can change between now and November. Biggest change will be if the country reopens and the virus does not make a resurgence before November. That will likely favor Trump. Next biggest change would be that the Dem elites decide Biden is too much of a liability, so they install another candidate at the Convention. This is a complete wildcard but I think it would favor the Dem's. Finally, there's the debates. If the Dem elites allow Biden to debate Trump, they are idiots, but they are idiots for making him the front runner at this point, so yeah, they could let him debate Trump. So at the debates, Trump goes, "So Joe, you know the media has come after me with any and every kind of alleged sexual misconduct rumor and accusation, but on this Tara Reade thing, the media has given you a pass. Why do you think that is, Joe?" Joe responds with a minute of incoherent random word salad and then says, "next question, go to the next question"

magoomba
magoomba

If Don and Mike don't start wearing their masks, Ms. Pelosi might be the next president.

Tengen
Tengen

There is a good chance whoever wins in November will be left holding the bag during our long awaited collapse. Those on the right should be hoping for a Biden victory, just as those on the left should want another Trump term. Covid-19 sped up our timetable and we're going to pay for our misdeeds sooner than anticipated.

It's dumb to automatically blame whoever is in office for an economic crash landing that has been bipartisan and decades in the making, but we only accept simplistic explanations as a country. Somebody has to take the blame and one of these two guys will be left standing when the music stops.

Regardless of who occupies the Oval Office, it's going to be ZIRP/NIRP and the perpetual brrrr sound of the printer from here on out.

Yahgoohot
Yahgoohot

I don't see reality in any of your story points. I am married to a minority from a former Socialist government led country. She knows of the 'disappearance' of government opposition. I have a business that puts me in contact with a wide socio-economic and diverse ethnic group of clients and customers. I have been doing this business for over 32 years. Prior to that, similar pattern of relationships within the engineering and commercial construction industry. I am unafraid to engage in topics with those having a variety of opinions and backgrounds. I don't know what is right for everyone but I do know I find a commonality amongst a high majority of the persons I described earlier. There is definitely a positive slant in the role this President is offering than the media and often the comments displayed following such stories. It appears this is backed with a lot of facts showing the electoral college predictions. From what I hear in the streets, the offices and at dinner. This President will be around again. The previous President has been bashed in conversations with many of my friends and acquaintances as having been a "phony", "the worst thing that could have happened to African Americans", things along that line. I offer up that he had a grand opportunity to create a bond within America to bridge the racial divide. But he seems to have missed the chance because of his Forceful and Biased Identity politics. I feel like his 8 years provided a megaphone to the LabelCrat dimension of the Democratic party. And it stood out front and stoked the fire of division that actually helped deliver Donald Trump because the previous 8 years were filled with "guilting" of millions of American citizens that never caused 1 minute of racial discourse during their whole lives. They were merely labeled as being so by their opposition to something that Obama chose to support or were watching the Constitution being threatened by the obvious executive order policies and social element where the rallying cry was "its not your fault, your choices have nothing to do with the position you are in at this point in your life. We can do it better and solve it through taxes. Just let us lift some dollars from the 1 Percenters. They will not mind at all. If they do they are RACIST, CAPITALISTS, etc".
I know a lot of screaming people were surprised when Trump was elected president. I was too, never thought it would happen. But this time around if I compare him to this person that is being babied over his Tara, sexual abuse scandal, Biden. I see a less savvy politician than Hillary, who has but a dollop of mental capacity remaining, probably rivaled by his amount of integrity. Just don't see him having a chance. As I hear out here in this real world that I have been in communication with on a daily basis. I know people with their own opinions, their own problems, their own concerns and I have yet to hear one person mention that Biden is going to be the one to help them achieve their goals in any possible way. Self-reliance is a great tool to keep Socialism at bay. One man's actions and reactions to how the media wants to shape an argument against him and how the same media protects and coddles another Politician are what we as citizens should oppose. We should ask for and expect a media to lay out the facts, and allow us to vote on facts and how the Candidates offer their potential resolutions to our current and future issues. This distortion likely began during the Camelot years when the media were enthralled with the Kennedys and they have reached out for that next famous couple to be in the White House. If Trump can ask the Media to remain honest then they will in turn expect him to be also and pound him into place just as we can at the Polling Booth. But as it is now there is no fair place to have the facts displayed to interpret a true value of a candidate. So we must therefore more often than not. Hold our nose and choose the one deemed less detrimental. I look forward to a time when Camelot is truly fiction and not in the mind of the media when promoting a candidate. Back on the topic. I live with a woman that says, "I wish they could live where I did and see how awesome it is to live here. Once I had the chance I feel like I owe this great country my best and what I've seen Trump is helping this country more than anyone in my 34 years here!" I will say, she was raised Buddhist, converted to Baptist once here and later in life followed her own spiritual path into Catholicism. I admire her as much as I love her and I know she is speaking her truth as she feels it in her heart and her Circuit Engineer mind. So she has given careful consideration to what she has learned to create and speak her opinion. I know hundreds of people with a similar story. They aren't shown on any of the charts in this story.

amigator
amigator

Good analysis.
Florida will go Trump. The pollsters are not getting a good reflection of the state overall. This is sounding a lot like 2016 again and we haven't even had a debate!

Quatloo
Quatloo

Polls mean nothing this far in advance of the election.
Dukakis was leading GHW Bush 17 by percentage points in August 1988. He lost BIG.
SO much could happen between now and election time; I’m not even convinced both candidates at their ages would survive the Coronavirus if they got it.

numike
numike

Why Illinois Is In Trouble – 109,881 Public Employees With $100,000+ Paychecks Cost Taxpayers $14B

astroboy
astroboy

I don't doubt that it's true Trump has an uphill battle, but I don't believe the polls. I have so many friends who are seriously convinced that Trump=Hitler, usually for trivial reasons, that I'd never admit that I'd vote for him. I'd prefer Biden but he's just too old. Also, needing a vagina to be considered for VP goes against my rules. Long story, bottom line is that my hatred of Hillary and her 'vaginas first' policies are personal and Uncle Joe loses my vote.

But, I'd never admit that to a pollster or anyone who I'd trust to keep it private. I don't need the aggravation or to lend data for stereotyping: bigoted white man, ya know.

I wouldn't object to a woman president who earned it or at least looked capable. No one on that last list this year.

SteveVT
SteveVT

yes, you hate Trump, so completely predictable. Polls mean just about zero this far out. Let's just wait and see, but no, you are in full TDS, so keep firing. I do enjoy your economic reads, but your politics reads are just not very compelling. Stick to economics.

gregggg
gregggg

Politics straight from the streets of New York https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T5ks7KVXe3w

Bam_Man
Bam_Man

And President Biden, through his superlative, unredoubtable ability will ingeniously find a way to deliver the country from the awful catastrophe that it now faces. Our god-sent savior.
Mmmm - Probably NOT.
If he is elected and actually serves anything close to a full term (not a foregone conclusion), what comes next will TRULY be scary. Or even MUCH worse than that. Be afraid. Be VERY afraid. Dark times lie ahead.

tokidoki
tokidoki

They will keep playing the Dr Brad Fauci video all the way till November. Biden will not convince people. Just leave it to Dr Brad Fauci.

Schaap60
Schaap60

I want to see the polls after Biden announces his VP choice. If he pulls a McCain, then those numbers could move, perhaps a lot. Biden needs to overcome his apparent senility and get that pick right.

wmjack
wmjack

Heaven Help America if the criminal Democrats and their media lap dogs win in Nov.
Trump is for the American Citizens not a member of a political GANG of the DC deep state.

TCW
TCW

Biden will poop his bed before the election. Can't wait for the debates.

Carl_R
Carl_R

I think Trump will poll worse in November than he does now. Covid19 is slacking off, so Trumps numbers currently are at a high, but when they accelerate again with cold weather in October, his numbers will fall.

yooj
yooj

Finally some good news.

Webej
Webej

What does it mean that Americans can choose either Biden or Trump?
Americans are about to reinstate control by the MSM, the deep state, the foreign policy establishment, and the financial elite, again. All the while crowing about how much freedom of choice they have.

BaronAsh
BaronAsh

The main reason Trump is vulnerable is not because of any of your points. Rather, it is fatigue. The unending vitriol from the opposition - and the opposition press - is ugly and toxic. Toxic to the whole country. They can say all they like that it's because Trump is an idiot, a racist, a bigot and so forth, but really it's a disgust tactic they have used deliberately to keep a ceiling on his support. It has worked. They will ratchet up the hatred and negativity until the election so that many, especially non-partisan independents, will want to get rid of him so we can go back to 'normal' and have a kinder, gentler America again.

Of course that will be a mirage, but the voters may not care. They just can't stand the constant aggression, anxiety, hatred, ugliness.

Not a great way to win, but as we have seen, treason is no issue for them, lying is no issue for them, decency is no issue for them. They just want to win.

And if the country lets them, then it will deserve all the bad things it will assuredly get.

DBG8489
DBG8489

Personally, I'm going long popcorn for October/November.

And maybe hedge with some 5.56, 7.62, and 12-00 in December/January...

MorningCoffee
MorningCoffee

Fox had Trump losing big in 2016 too so who knows.

Misc
Misc

The media has yet to credit his leadership for saving millions upon millions of American lives. He was the man in charge through the darkest time in America's history. Never before were millions of Americans forecasted to die in such a short span. He deserves the credit for the millions of lives saved.

wootendw
wootendw

Polls mean nothing in June, much less May, even less in April.

awc13
awc13

biden is a slam dunk with his economic intercourse idea

awc13
awc13

my prediction is that biden will not be president. not saying trump will win.

biden's dementia and the more and more credible sexual assault allegation will take him out. the man appeared to doze off during hillary's endorsement during one of his basement broadcasts. also, it looks like he has lost weight since a year ago. my guess is that his appetite is declining

mpowerOR
mpowerOR

Trump will win PA. Period.

These poll numbers are a complete joke... and then Mish piles-on with garbage emotional/subjective opinions...

Not defending DT here, just pointing out this site's backslide into TDS irrelevance.

Jdog1
Jdog1

Polls at this point in the game are meaningless, as we saw in the last election.
Trump would not be my first choice, for President, but if you look at what he has done in contrast to what he says, he has done a pretty decent job.
The Democrats on the other hand have been a crapshow of hateful intentions and corruption. They have launched one unfounded attack after another instead of addressing the problems that are plaguing our country. They have used this crisis to give Congress a raise, and to support their supporters.
Their Presidential candidate is a addled psychopath who loses his composure and attacks people worse than Trump when challenged. He will not survive the debates or the scrutiny of his actions in or out of office.
In the end, the majority of Americans will hold their nose and vote for Trump, and the Democrats will have another melt down and throw childish tantrums for the next 4 years.

BLUEWIN
BLUEWIN

November is a very long way off . . . never in the history of presidential elections has anything like this occurred . . . too many unknowns . . . but one thing is for sure . . . the country is going to go through a world of hurt before the next president is elected.

CA2020
CA2020

When Trump loses Republicans are done. They have lost all credibility. Trump has blown up all there principles, and they all followed along. Debt, Deficits, Trade, Immigration, Build the Wall, Decency, Humility, Honesty. Now all they have is Incompetency!

CCBW
CCBW

Well Mish when Biden and the Dem’s run the show things it will be GREAT! You see I’m a lowly farmer in my mid-sixties so when Biden, Nancy and company are running things I’ll need some help working on the farm because of the GREEN NEW DEAL they will GIVE US. Well my tractors and trucks will get parked too much CO2 so it’s back to Santa farming Hoe Hoe Hoe. I did it when I was a kid Dad grew dry bean’s you know from the Bush Company with the golden retriever the one that talks and sells baked beans. Come on down I’ll show you how to use that hoe you love it. With one you’ll be able to take out all those pesky weeds we can’t eat weeds and because they use up the nutrients and the water that crop needs. After all we can’t use herbsides, pestacides, and fungsides. Bugs are easy just squash them but there are a lot of them and that will take a fair amount of time but you’ll have a lot of that. Because your job went away so now you can work on that perfect tan while you hoe. Of course it won’t be my farm it will be our communal farm. Well enough of this horse SH*T if you won’t the agrarian lifestyle that your call and that’s what it will take to stop global warming. At least the Amahs use horses but oh no too much methane gas. Well I’ll always have something to eat and as Chris Martenson seas plant a garden yes and I read Martin Armstrong to and as an old treckee “live long and prosper” CCBW if you don’t know that’s chief cook and bottle washer

NotFkNews
NotFkNews

The truth is the President doesn't care about poll numbers. He doesn't care about any numbers except economic numbers. Well the unemployment numbers are getting worse by the moment. So its no surprise that his approval numbers are slipping. If any one thinks that he has done an incredible job especially now, I have a few more numbers. People who have the virus in the United States 1,031,659. People who have died from the virus over 60,057. We hope that numbers mean something on November 3rd. We will see.