Extremely Difficult Setup for Trump to Win in November
If you do not like my map, you can create your own at 270toWin.
But before you create your own map or ridicule mine, you might wish to look at some current polls, state-by-state.
Three Crucial Swing States for Trump
- North Carolina
Even if Trump wins those states, if the above map holds, Trump loses in November.
Pennsylvania is Key
The biggest swing state headed for Biden is Pennsylvania with 20 Electoral College Votes.
Note that a Fox News poll conducted April 18-21 gives Biden an 8-point lead.
If Biden wins Pennsylvania, he can still lose Virginia and all the states I marked as tossups then still win (270 on the nose).
My map is actually generous to Trump. Mentally I have Florida as slightly leans Biden and Nevada as leans Biden.
I discounted Nevada due to lack of recent polls.
If Biden were to win Nevada, then he could lose two out of these three states I have in Biden's column (Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota), again assuming he carries Pennsylvania which is my one key assumption based on the polls.
Ohio and What We Don't Know
I rate Ohio as a tossup due to lack of polls. Ohio is crucial to Trump so mentally move that into his column if you prefer.
Without any polls I suspect Iowa may be in play. And if it turns into a rout, not exactly unlikely, even Texas could be in play for Biden.
Path to Victory
Biden has multiple paths to victory as described above, presuming he wins Pennsylvania which is now my base case.
Trump needs to win all the tossups AND two more states or Pennsylvania. He has an extremely narrow path to victory.
Note that Fox News gives Biden an 8-point lead in Michigan. This is despite (or because) of soaring Michigan unemployment, perhaps as high as 30%.
For details, please see For details, please see Over 25% of Michigan Workforce Filed For Unemployment.
Governor Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat, has a Covid-19 approval rating of 57%. Liberate Michigan, Liberate Minnesota, and Liberate Virginia backfired.
I discussed the above Tweets in Huge Battle Over Covid-19 Tests and Trump's Liberation Tweets.
Words of Caution
It's not impossible for Trump to win in November, but it is difficult.
These polls are early. November is still 6 months away but the election map, Trump's handing of Covid-19, the recession, and the thought of 4 more years of Trump to swing voters all weigh against Trump.
This is Not 2016
Finally, this is not 2016. Many swing voters gave Trump a nod in in 2016 simply because they despised Hillary.
Many of those same swing voters have had enough of Trump's divisive treatment of allies, his belittling of everyone but himself, and his handling of Covid-19.