Election Update: Is Trump Closing the Gap?

Mish

Trump has narrowed the gap. Enough to panic?

Gap Closing

Trump has narrowed the gap and it started at the beginning of August. 

Some of the closure is normal tightening. Like Silver, I expected the gap to close simply because it usually does.

Nauseating But Predicted

But some of gap closure is self-inflicted silliness. 

As noted in Nauseating But Predicted: Biden Selects Kamala Harris as His VP Running Mate, Biden's selection was as nauseating as it was predictable.

It will not help Biden beat Trump, but Trump is so far behind it likely does not matter.

I cannot support this ticket, nor can I support Trump.

The pick could cost Biden the election, something I stated before, but I still think Biden will win.

However, the selection of Harris might easily prevent the Democrats from capturing the Senate and for that we can be grateful. 

Harris might also cost Democrats a chance to win Ohio and North Carolina. Those states have now both tipped slightly to Trump from Biden.

Biden Slightly Favored Still

Biden Slightly Favored 2020-08-31

That's about how I see things, down from 70-75%.

Someone like Amy Klobuchar may have paid dividends in Ohio, North Carolina, and Iowa without costing a cent anywhere else.

It's hard to assess if this is a beginning of a fundamental shift or just normal tightening on top of a very poor Biden VP selection. 

For now, I stick with my assessment this is mostly normal tightening.

Biden can lose Florida and Arizona, or Pennsylvania and Arizona. 

Trump's path is much much narrower. He needs Arizona and Florida plus another state.

Mish

Comments (82)
No. 1-20
Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

Trump still is playing defense in Texas and Georgia and Arizona. 10M new Latino voters 2020. LeBron James get out the vote campaign will be a huge factor in Ohio and Florida.

lol
lol

Country is in such sorry ass shape,bleak doesn't come close to describing it,trillion dollar MONTHLY deficits,virtually every state (everything!) will need a federal bailout,cities look like 3rd world countries.There is zero to be optimistic about in this economy!

Sechel
Sechel

It's getting ugly. Trump is bribing the UAE with F35 jets in exchange for peace with Israel to bring back lost evangelical support. All done weeks before an election

Sechel
Sechel

I agree about Harris. She gets more voted where it doesn't matter like California. She might help mobilize more of the black vote but I think Biden already would have outperformed Hillary on that metric. Seems to me surrogates of Harris did a number on Klobuchar behind the scenes. Also the pact with progressives but on the same token had Biden progressive turnout may have been weaker. The Bernie guys didn't vote for clinton in the right numbers. Everything will rest with the independent vote in my opinion

numike
numike

And the cure all covid vaccine will be ready in a few weeks! I think I will pass on the fast track covid vaccine ty

TimeToTest
TimeToTest

Trump is going to win. For those that don’t believe that, wear a MAGA shirt anywhere not a red state. You will get trash talked and spit on. Trump supporters have given up showing their support openly. In this environment phone polling becomes worthless. We live in a world where everything is recorded. Polling is one sided because of this.

People are scared of the things Biden supports. Rioting and BLM. People will do what is best for them and their family. As long as Biden supports things that go against the white voting majority his numbers will continue to deteriorate. I think Biden is trapped in this position. It’s a lose lose for him.

It’s interesting to me for @Mish to be leaning against Trump. Before the election all he talked about was wanting a president that wouldn’t start another war. He also lowered the corporate tax rate witch was another point Mish made several times. You make many good points about his many many flaws and lies. He should be called out but has done many good things to help this country. Those good things rarely get talked about.

I am also very glad Trump was our president for Covid. Many people think he did a terrible job but looking at the big picture he has done pretty well. All over the world Corona is either spreading or they are locked down delaying the spread. Either way it doesn’t matter. Everyone will get covid at some point. Destroying the economy while only delaying the outcome is not the right route. Covid is smarter than us. Life any virus it will take decades to vaccinate covid away, if ever.

Vigorish
Vigorish

Where's Ross Perot when you really need him to upset an election? I miss his level of entertainment:

"I grew up in Texarkana. I know what they do over there in Arkansas. Now, let me ask you. Do you want patater chips or computer chips?"

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

Harris might also cost Democrats a chance to win Ohio and North Carolina

This is so overrated. LeBron James and Michael Jordan are spending millions in those states to get out the vote. I expect black voter turnout to be at historic highs. It is not even talked about in the media anywhere. Texas is also slipping away for Trump because third party candidates are polling close to 10%. The more votes that go to the third party candidate there the more chances improve for Biden. Trump is sucking up so much of the mainstream and right wing media airwaves and too many folks on both sides think 2016 will happen again. No one is paying attention to the ground game.

AWC
AWC

If stocks are in record territory at election time, Trump wins. If the markets are crashed by the opposition, Biden wins. Place your bets, y’all.

Biden does have an advantage with the women and minority vote, which is a majority, what with his VP selection. He also has a strategic advantage in his pledge of unconditional military and economic support of Israel, make of that what you will.

Trump, on the other hand still possesses the bully pulpit, and he’s pretty good at Twitter, and not too bad at playing the nobody-likes-me hurt puppy dog.

Either way, these two clowns are only brand name hood ornaments for the real power brokers than run all this. Banking cartels, corporatists, assorted international oligarchs, lobbyists, etc.

As usual, I’m voting my own personal conscience,,,,,lessor of two evils is still evil. Time for a third party.

DontTreadOnMe1
DontTreadOnMe1

Mish, just admit your prediction of an easy Biden win was nuts. Biden has severe dementia that gets worse each day. Trump has wisely latched on to the law and order theme which will win him this election. Put your money where your mouth is. Biden is now even money in Vegas.

WildBull
WildBull

Trump is gaining ground because Dem governors refuse to control rioters. People are beginning to see how Fauci, the CDC and FDA tried to undercut Trump at every turn during the pandemic, as did the DOJ and the intelligence community with the Russia bulls#!t. In my opinion Fauci, along with CDC and FDA officials should be charged with murder. I don't know how to prove it, but it stinks at every turn.

Jam_Ham
Jam_Ham

How are protests and riots seen as orchestrated by the democrats? Nothing to do with the guy in charge of the entire country. The white guy that drove across state lines to murder some protesters? Somehow Biden's fault? All of the fox news cult members were always going to vote Trump. The real reason Trump will win is because people like Mish can't tell which is worse, capital gains tax or the return of the confederacy.

Eddie_T
Eddie_T

I think Biden would have liked to pick Rice, but she was way too financially well off, and not at all into the whole entitlement POV....i.e. not black enough. Harris was number two on the "least likely to rock the DNC boat" list. That's her qualification...and she does suit me more than some of the alternatives...even though what Mish said about her is true.

Never ever underestimate the ability of the Democratic Party to wrest defeat from the jaws of victory. This is the story of politics in America in the 21st century. The biggest problem the Democrats have is that they abandoned their traditional white working class base in order for the donor class to benefit financially from unlimited influence peddling.

The entire Democratic Party platform is based on a false narrative. The only people who can't see that are rich liberals, young idealists, and true believers with the blinders on.

Trump is catching up because the Dems are kissing BLM butt and taking the knee.....virtue signaling like mad to make their new LGBTQ and ethnic minority base happy. What's next in this misguided attempt to take down white males and guarantee equal outcomes for all? I have to ask myself this.

It represents a real enigma. I can't in good conscience vote for Trump. I also don't believe in abstaining or writing in a good candidate, like I did 8 years ago for Ron Paul. That doesn't achieve any good end, just tips the scales to whichever party gets the vote out.

It actually makes me want to GTFO of the US, but I don't see any better alternative destinations, as of now.

FatManCometh
FatManCometh

The problem isn't choosing Kamala, it is choosing Biden.

awc13
awc13

my prediction that i made many months ago. Biden will never be sworn in as president. not saying trump will win.

awc13
awc13

Biden knows how to deal with covid:

Joe Biden, sep 1st, 2020: "Covid has taken this year, just since the outbreak, has taken more than 100 year, look, here's, the lives, it's just, when you think about it."

read from a prepared response

Herkie
Herkie

If the "gap is closing" it is Putin closing it.

PERPLEXED
PERPLEXED

Mish as you know not voting or voting for an independent is a vote for Biden. Biden is an idiot now more then before. Mish you did not move to Utah because the Chicago politicians are your favorite people. Biden is one of them. Other then bringing down the deficits Trump has been very pro business, pro military and pro police and pro- legal immigration. I like these things!