Eight Reasons This is Not 2016

Mish

A quick check of the calendar says this is 2020. Politically speaking don't expect another 2016 Trumpian replay either.

Eight Reasons This is Not 2016

  1. There are far fewer undecided voters this year. For discussion please see Who are the Undecided Voters and How Many Remain?
  2. There is no last minute Comey Bombshell (sorry Trump fans, the Hunter Biden Story is Irrelevant)
  3. Hillary was 2-3% ahead nationally in 2016 but Biden is 8-12% ahead.
  4. There are more state polls this time.
  5. In 2016, the state pollsters underweighted uneducated white voters.
  6. It's likely that pollsters overcompensated for the education gap this time thereby underestimating Biden's lead.
  7. Hillary was more despised than Trump. Now, Trump is far more despised than Biden.
  8. The massive amount of early voting is Democratic. These are not "likely voters". They are 100% guaranteed voters. The pollsters are underweighting "guaranteed" voters as "likely" voters. In 2016 a big chunk of these voters sat out the election.

Bonus Reasons

Those who expect a "Bonus Reason" I just happen to have one: Covid Records Shattered In The US and Europe

What About Women and Those Over 65?

Expecting an election replay of 2016 is more than a bit silly.

Mish

Comments (70)
No. 1-17
PecuniaNonOlet
PecuniaNonOlet

Spot on Mish. I could not stomach Clinton or Trump in 2016 and voted Libertarian. I would do the same again this year but trump has to go so Biden got my vote. Dems should not assume 2024 will be 2020.

The thing I look forward to in 2024 is voting 100% Libertarian all the way down.

Jackula
Jackula

Trump is a symptom and removing him is not the cure. Conversely, its become quite obvious Trump is unable to do almost anything to lift this country out of the morass it is in. He actually made things much worse and/or made it obvious to most of us just how bad things are.

FactsonJoe
FactsonJoe

I believe it is still possible Trump wins 2nd term with 270-280 electoral college votes but for this to happen everybody supporting Trump needs to go to the polls and vote and Trump needs to keep doing the 3 rallies per day pace he is doing now and there needs to be more drip drip drip from the Hunter Biden laptop and there needs to be data from there connecting Joe Biden to corruption even clearer than has so far happened so Joe Biden loses the moral high ground he has tried to take against Trump.

goldguy
goldguy

it's going to be VERY funny when most of this forum finally understand what is going on and who is in control...just a few days left.

Felix_Mish
Felix_Mish

I agree with @Mish on this one.

Which means: Stock market, the sky's the limit! MMT will bail out public pension funds and even state and local budgets. Capital gains won't be confiscated unless pension funds can dodge such confiscation. So stocks will remain a hedge against inflation. Until they aren't.

PT109
PT109

Polls are wrong again and it is showing up in early voting ....it looks like Trump has a very good chance of taking Florida and NC. Trump is ahead in Ohio... and Georgia according to the Democrats as of yesterday.
Rasmussen Reports that the Black vote for Trump as of 10/19 was 25% and has jumped to 46% as of 10/23 it has nearly doubled. Similar gains can be expected among the Hispanic community.
Trump is definitely on his way to another election win. Trumps support has dominated Biden's....just look at his rallies and look at Biden's a massive difference....there is no enthusiasm for Biden.
The Democrats have been fooled again by the polls the Media and their own party....when will they wise up and realize they have been lied to again.

Sechel
Sechel

Very good summary. The only bright spot for Trump are among the least educated black and hispanic males who have clearly shifted to Trump. The majority will still select Biden but in smaller numbers than in 2016. They're attracted to the "macho" factor, want to be closer to the "white " power structure and think Trump represents how a businessman operates.

Also for those wanting to believe 2020 is like 2016 polls for Clinton showed her weakening in the polls the last few weeks before the election. We're not seeing that with Biden. So if you believe 2020 is like 2016 it's not logical to ignore the divergence in 2020 vs 2016 national polling.

bolto
bolto

It's hard to explain why it's important to many that Trump needs to win in order to have continuity on the fight against Chinese Communist Party (not people of China) when people are clueless about how CCP operates. Ask countries or companies that have dealt with CCP and sufferred, they will tell you that it is often too late when you finally realized that whatever rules/laws/agreements you have with CCP, it does not matter because CCP never honors in ways that matters.

National security about Huawei or even tik tok is really about CCP having access to data when they want to without anyone knowing about it. And CCP would use it to control people. The world was ok without China market before and the world will be ok again after making supply chain adjustments and work with more trustworthy partners. China does not own the world and there is not scientific proof that the world would not survive without China, so lets not hold the world hostage for sounding the alarm that decoupling is nothing but harms. Change is a matter of will and people should do it when it is necessary. I certainly hope that no more people need to learn about the danger of trusting CCP the hard way because there should be enough evidences out there.

I don't understand why MISH would claim that the Hunter story is not relevant. If the story turns out to be true, it is very relevant. It is about taking money and influence policies based on money, which is a serious problem. I hope MISH would be willing to admit his mistakes later if he turns out to be so wrong about this.

Sechel
Sechel

I just pulled up Chris Ruddy's site Newsmax. Not a single Biden story on Burisma. It's over. Story never resonated, probably because people know Joe Biden and it was debunked so quickly. If it had been about Hillary Clinton and had similar veracity it would have gained far more traction.

Rudy isn't exactly in a position to on the attack right now either. I doubt we'll be hearing from him much over the next ten days given his tuckgate scandal

Louis Winthorpe III
Louis Winthorpe III

It's likely that pollsters overcompensated for the education gap this time thereby underestimating Biden's lead.

I've been thinking this also, the pollsters have some 2016 PTSD.

Great post, this kind of clear headed analysis is why I love your blog.

Frank10
Frank10

Here is one more reason this is not 2016. Unlike in 2016, the silent majority (non twitter/blog folks) is a lot more secretive this time about their support for Trump. None of the people that I know of that have voted or will vote for Trump, and I know quite a few, have participated in any pollster calls, posted any signs on their property or showed in any way that they support Trump. They're just not sure that if they do that they won't be harassed or have their property or business vandalized by "peaceful protestors" later on. Interestingly enough, all the gun stores in my and surrounding areas have been sold out of ar15s and matching amo for weeks. That didn't happen in 2016 either. Doubtful that all these people that suddenly decided to arm themselves are going to vote democrat.

Eddie_T
Eddie_T

I said many weeks a ago that one possibility was a Biden landslide. Based...not on Biden's record or his platform or his promises.....but on the election turning into a referendum on Trump. On the surface at least....this seems to be the way things are headed.

I do think there are silent Trump voters who might be motivated by fear around movements like BLM and #defundthe police. I doubt that's a huge group. But it might make the race closer than it looks now.

I didn't vote Libertarian in 2016. I made an anti-Trump vote then.....but I wanted it to count, so I held my nose and voted Democrat. I've known enough about him since the late 1970's to know he was unfit for high office. It was difficult to vote for Clinton.....as far as corruption, she was and still is way beyond anything Joe Biden ever thought about.

Since I don't watch TV, I never saw Trump's silly reality TV show. I strongly suspect that is what influenced many people to vote for him in 2016.......a fake billionaire, on a totally fake show, faking how a high-rolling businessman operates. Vicarious pleasure for people with no power at all in their own lives.

Americans have always been saps for celebrities. Trump voters liked to hear him say "You're fired!" . That's what I think.

Since I live in a red state, I might have just as well have written in Ron Paul again.....he's he only Libertarian leaning politician I ever thought might win the presidency...but even he wasn't capable of making a dent in BAU, when he had the chance.

I'm good with a Biden win, frankly, in terms of how the election impacts me. Trump never lowered my taxes enough to matter anyway. I'm not a billionaire. I'm an upper-middle class tax donkey...a dying breed. Not sure where the money comes from for all the profligate waste and graft and corporate bailouts when we're all gone. I worry for my kids more than I worry for myself.

I don't buy all the rhetoric about China... Xi is a power-grabbing despot...I'll certainly give you that....and China mines data out the wazoo..no doubt. But China has their own problems....the chickens will come home to roost.

Our monetary policy is not likely to change much with a new administration. The Fed is painted into a corner that has been getting smaller for more than a decade......I expect asset bubbles to be inflated much bigger before they collapse.....

Stocks might be a hedge for inflation, but I'd advise getting an understanding of what stocks might be worth in a deflationary collapse scenario.....which is not much.

I will continue to save cash and buy tangible assets, and try to lower my taxes by emulating the real rich, insomuch as I can, at my modest level of financial accomplishment.

njbr
njbr

Earlier this week--"We're turning the corner".

Now, “We are not going to get control of the pandemic.”

Such radical shifts in messaging means only one thing--PANIC !!

Reality is out-running BS.

njbr
njbr

Tweeterings...

Bill Kristol
@BillKristol

Then:
Ford to city: Drop dead.

Now:
Meadows to country: Drop dead.

njbr
njbr

More tweeterings...

Bill Kristol
@BillKristol

Republican elites preaching to the masses:
“Personal responsibility, individual accountability, moral hazard, you get more of certain behavior if you reward it, liberty is not license...”

Republican elites talking among themselves:
“Screw them all, make sure we’re first in line.”

Trey LePark
Trey LePark

On this particular subject of the election, too many people are expecting lightning to strike the same random spot twice.


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