Bernie Sanders Throws in the Towel: Victory is Impossible

Mish

Bernie Sanders finally did what I expected a couple weeks ago: Admit the setup was impossible and drop out.

The Wall Street Journal reports Bernie Sanders Drops Out of 2020 Presidential Race, Paving Way for Biden.

“The path toward victory is virtually impossible,” Mr. Sanders said in a livestreamed address. “If I believed that we had a feasible path to the nomination, I would certainly continue the campaign. But it’s just not there.”

Mr. Sanders congratulated Mr. Biden, calling him “a very decent man,” and said he would work with him to move progressive policy ideas forward. However, Mr. Sanders said he would remain on the ballot in the states set to vote in order to continue accumulating delegates, which would give him more leverage to shape the Democratic Party platform at the convention in August.

Path for Victory for Whom?

The progressives and radical Left will undoubtedly claim that this paves the path for a Trump victory.

They have it backwards.

Bernie's actions pave a clear path for Biden.

Appeal to the Moderates

Appealing to the moderates is undoubtedly the correct strategy.

OK, assume some Sanders supporters and millennials sit this out as happened in 2016.

Trump did not win because of that, but it helped. Trump primarily won because he appealed to enough independents and moderates who could not stand Hillary.

More accurately, it took both of those events for Trump to barely win, albeit in enough key states to make it appear as if he won by a big margin from an electoral college perspective.

What About 2020?

  1. This campaign is not as divisive as 2016 because Bernie dropped out.
  2. Millennials are 4 years older. At least some of them will have learned a lesson about sitting this out.
  3. The most important factor is the huge number of independents and moderates who are now thoroughly disgusted with Trump.

The Math

  • Bernie supporters sitting this out = 1 lost vote each
  • Moderates who would vote for Trump rather than a socialist = 2 vote swing each

Bernie has very deep support but it is not at all broad. He generated extreme energy in his fans, far more than any other Democratic candidate, but enthusiasm in a small group does not win elections.

Trump also has extreme energy in his base. So what?

The base is going nowhere. Trump's base would never vote for Biden or any Democrat. And appealing to the base to generate clapping and praise is precisely the wrong thing to do.

Extreme energy in the base will not win over the moderates and independent swing voters.

Trump has an exceptionally narrow path in 2020. He needs a precise repeat play, but he's starting with a hand in which he has pissed off many moderates and independents.

He also has an economy that will have gone through a recession with millions out of work. Those scars will be deep even if the recession ends by November.

Add it all up and the picture does not look good for Trump.

Unless something happens to Biden, and it could, I expect Trump will get clobbered in November.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (19)
No. 1-13
Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

I expect the same. We will be in a deep recession by this summer and people will be looking to blame someone. Trump deserves to get clobbered. He hasn't done much right to stay in office. Contrary to Republican party belief, not all government is bad government. Biden would have easily done a better job under current circumstances. Modern Republican Presidents are a failure at managing crises (9/11, Global Financial Crisis and now add Pandemics to the list). As an independent, it will be harder to fool people in the middle come November for Trump.

numike
numike

John Prine // "There’s life, and there’s death; there’s not much in between. You fall in love, you’re trapped inside these bodies, the clock goes around, and before you know it...it’s time to go."

IGA
IGA

Biden was always the Dems best choice to beat Trump. He has the support and is way more moderate than others. Trump has pushed away so many independents and even moderate Republicans can get behind Biden. Add in a recession and 10s of thousands dead of covid and it should be a lay-up for the Dems.

wootendw
wootendw

"Bernie's actions pave a clear path for Biden."

I would never dream of challenging Mish on economics or finance as he knows far more about those subjects than I.

But, unless Trump beats himself, he will surely beat Biden even if Biden recovers his lost mental faculties.

So mark my words for November:

Trump will beat Biden (and without my vote).

Even though I won't be voting, I value life and Biden is a warmonger who praised Bush 43 for Iraq II. We will be there for 100 years. We'd still be in Vietnam were it not for Kissinger.

Jojo
Jojo

Well, there was this a few days back:

Thursday, April 02, 2020
Hannity and O'Reilly claim Biden's family concerned about candidate's mental health
April 01, 2020 07:19 PM

Fox News host Sean Hannity and former Fox News personality Bill O'Reilly claimed anonymous Democratic sources have lost confidence in former Vice President Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee.

During Hannity's Wednesday radio program, O'Reilly said Biden insiders told him Biden's family and friends have "great concern" about the presidential candidate's mental health.

"There is great concern among Mr. Biden's family and friends about his mental health. Great concern. And his wife is the key, all right? Dr. Jill Biden. She has a Ph.D in education. They're worried about him," O'Reilly said.

"And the thinking now is that, if Biden can't make it, they'll get him to a couple of weeks before the convention, and then he'll step aside for health reasons and give his delegates to Cuomo," O'Reilly said, fueling speculation that New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo may be eyeing a late entry into the 2020 contest given the high marks he has received for his handling of New York's coronavirus outbreak.

....

flubber
flubber

It would have been interesting to see what the Democratic primary results would have been if the COVID-19 virus had caused complete shutdown in February. Sanders would have had momentum on his side. Not sure how the primaries would have played out. Would they have been postponed? If not, would people venture out to the polls? Geez, as far as I know, I wonder how bad the turnout will be in November if the virus is still floating around.

Obviously campaigning is completely shutdown at this time and has taken a back seat in the news cycle. Trump will have a difficult time overcoming the resulting recession that will be in effect thru the end of this year at a minimum.

SMF
SMF

The coming recession, whether anyone likes it or not, will now be blamed on the pandemic. Those terrible fundamentals over the last decade will be in the end ignored by most as it will absolve them of any blame.

jacob_zuma
jacob_zuma

Mish, Trump won in 2016 because of working class votes in states like Michigan and Wisconsin. Had his opponent been Bernie, Trump would probably have lost as these votes would have gone to Bernie.

As for 2020, the deep recession coming up likely means anyone against Trump will probably win. Had Covid-19 not happened and the growth charade gone on until election day, Trump would have probably won against Bernie, and almost surely against Sleepy Joe. Bernie would have had better odds than Bidne because the moderate dems would have voted for him anyway and he might have been able to sway farmers and workers on his side, two categories which normally would be difficult for Joe to sway.

Eitherway, given the attitudes of Millenials and the likelihood of a significant recession and severe deflation, it is likely the US will shift to the left in future elections. Look no more to how every American will be given a free paycheck from the government under a Republican presidency.

Helene84
Helene84

I supported Bernie, but would vote for Trump over Biden. Biden is in obvious cognitive decline. Biden should not be running a gas station in Dubuque, let alone command the most powerful military on earth.

DBG8489
DBG8489

If the Democrats are counting on the economy to overcome Crazy Uncle Joe Syndrome, they are in for a rude awakening.

Unemployment could be through the roof and people could be eating dry dog food right out of the bag and there is zero chance Biden beats Trump.

Please bear in mind that I am not a Trump supporter. I have a philosophical opposition to voting in general and as a consequence, I don't care who wins because to me, they both suck.

The reality is that we've seen this movie before. They put Hillary up thinking she was a shoe-in against Trump especially given the success of the Obama presidency. People would be crazy not to vote her in right? Wrong. She was damaged goods and no amount of bullshit could change that.

Enter Biden.

Another Democrat with a severely questionable and somewhat checkered past. There are also videos of him engaging in all sorts of inappropriate behavior. And to top it off, he is clearly losing his mind. He can't string sentences together coherently much of the time, claims he's been and done things he's never done, and if he gets angry....

This behavior is humorous when it's your harmless old grandfather kicking it up at Thanksgiving dinner. But do you want him running your country?

Could you imagine him on stage with Trump during a debate? All Trump would need to do is push his buttons and watch him go. Would be like shooting fish in a barrel...with a shotgun...

My bet is on the Democrats finding a way to draft Andrew "Gimme the Ventilators" Cuomo.

I may be wrong, but my opinion is that if they run Biden, we will get 4 more years of Trump.

RonJ
RonJ

"The most important factor is the huge number of independents and moderates who are now thoroughly disgusted with Trump."

Rogan said he would vote for Bernie. Rogan said recently that he would vote for Trump over Biden. Rogan doesn't consider Biden to be qualified, considering his recent mental lapses. Rogan isn't the only person thinking that way, which has the Democratic Party elite concerned.

parks6n580
parks6n580

Not going to spend the time to find it right now, but there is a nice video going around discussing Biden's 'moderate' position on things. To call his statements moderate seems a bit silly (unless he is just saying what he thinks people want to hear, which could be the case). He is a politician after all. His position on immigration, guns and healthcare do not strike me as moderate.

nobodynowhere
nobodynowhere

he'll get paid another 666 thousand for participating, just like last time. not a bad deal...


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