As Trump Endorses Election Fraud, It's No Longer "Pretty Early"

Mish

Nate Silver sums up the phase of the election in a series of Tweets.

No Longer Pretty Early

Complete Thread

  1. Trump still has pretty decent winning chances (~30% in our model) but I don't really buy that his chances are *increasing* and I don't get why there seems to be some sentiment to that effect. In some ways, rather, this was the most reassuring week of the campaign for Biden.
  2. Why? If you're behind, you only have so many chances to turn the campaign around, and Trump whiffed on a couple of chances this week. He did not get much help from his convention. Nor does his "LAW AND ORDER" focus seem to working, at least if you trust the polls.
  3. To put it another way, with the late conventions this year, we're rapidly transitioning from "it's still pretty early" to "we're in the stretch run". And out of that Trump went from...trailing by 8-9 points to 7-8 instead? (And that small bounce might fade anyway.) Not great.
  4. Underlying conditions may be getting a bit better for Trump. We did get a great jobs report this AM. COVID cases have been falling. (Though more of a plateau lately, which is a bit concerning.) Some optimism about vaccines. (Along with concern they'll be rushed out.)
  5. But it's also clear that Trump isn't very focused on any of that. Just look at his Twitter feed this week. It's about obscure cable news stories instead. About Nancy Pelosi going to the beauty parlor. About John McCain. About the Drudge Report. About "mini-strokes".
  6. The chaotic news cycles induced by Trump can sometimes be make it hard for his opponent to drive a message. If he was ahead, they could help him to run out the clock. But now *he's* behind and *he's* the one who needs something to change and *he* has to drive a message.

Law and Orders Isn't Resonating

Please consider Trump’s Law And Order Message Isn’t Resonating With Most Americans

As President Trump continues to push a “law and order” campaign message, we’ve been keeping an eye on the polls to see whether there’s any truth to the narrative that the recent unrest in Kenosha, Wisconsin, will help Trump politically. So far, the answer is no. Polls conducted this week and late last week suggest that public attitudes aren’t really breaking in Trump’s direction, even though the Republican National Convention focused a great deal on characterizing the Democrats as the party of chaos and anarchy.

 Many Americans doubt his ability to fix the problems and reduce tensions that have precipitated the demonstrations. According to a YouGov survey on Wednesday, 56 percent of adults said that the violence happening at protests would get worse if Trump were reelected this November. Fifteen percent thought the violence would stay at similar levels, while 18 percent thought it would improve (11 percent said they didn’t know). Conversely, 43 percent thought protest violence would get better if Joe Biden won, and just 23 percent thought it would worsen. Somewhat similarly, 50 percent of likely voters told Quinnipiac University this week that they felt less safe with Trump as president, compared with 35 percent who said they felt safer. These voters were more split on Biden, however: 42 percent said they’d feel safer with Biden in the White House, and 40 percent said they’d feel less safe. Regarding Trump’s and Biden’s rhetoric on the protests, ABC News/Ipsos survey found that 55 percent of Americans thought Trump’s statements made things worse, while about half the country (49 percent) thought Biden’s statements didn’t have much effect either way.

Winding Path to Victory

The lead image from 538 Election Forecast

The word "forecast" is inaccurate and 538 would agree even though that is the link title.

The accurate words are "snapshot" at the moment. But the election isn't now.

North Carolina Back in Biden's Column

A few days ago North Carolina was narrowly in Trump's column. But his election bounce is fading. North Carolina is now narrowly back in Biden's column.

The election is less than two months from now. Moreover, Trump's key message hasn't resonated.

Vote Twice

Vote Twice Trump

Vote Twice Unlocked

Vote Twice Expanded Trump

Trump Encouraged Election Fraud

Trump clearly encourage election fraud. A number of states issued warnings regarding those Tweets.

There is no guarantee in any state to have votes tabulated before or on election day.

It's no longer early and Trump keeps making Tweet gaffes. The latest on McCain, and literally telling people to try to vote twice.

That's quite a set of Tweets coupled with his primary message of "Law and Order".

Mish

Comments (49)
No. 1-21
Realist
Realist

I must admit, it can sometimes be funny watching Trump. First he says he is the law and order president. Then he tells people to break the law and deliberately vote twice. I guess he can pardon them all, like all the other criminals he has pardoned.

Still, no matter what he does, he appears to have locked up his Republican voters, who would vote for Satan himself, if he was Republican. He can call the military dead all "losers and suckers" and they will still vote for him.

That is why he still has a chance. Now all he needs to do is somehow find a message that works with independents.

Failing that, I guess he can call the election a fraud, and take it to the courts. After all, look how many people voted twice! Lol.

wmjack
wmjack

The thing I have learned from Trump's election: Follow the money that Trump has disrupted in DC and the extremes DC will go to get it BACK. The counties around DC have the highest income in the Country 40,000 lobbyists, The Federal Agencies, the Media, the ivy league schools and the Military elite the illegal aliens all want the disrupt-er out of their DC money machine--- Trump is the last bastion of truth and freedom for the informed citizens of American

Felix_Mish
Felix_Mish

Reaction to Trump's clever post seems overwrought.

With a lot of people new to mail-in, a question arises: What if you want to change your vote from an early mail-in? Seems like the thing to do would be to simply vote in person to override your previous vote. (Other mechanisms to handle this situation are easy to imagine.)

Do American voting systems handle this? If not, why not? A guard against double-voting and a secret ballot are key requirements of any American voting system aren't they?

Carl_R
Carl_R

Why would Trump expect a bounce from the "law and order" attitude? The riots started on his shift, and have gotten worse on his shift. Clearly whatever he is doing isn't working. He seems to make a lot of noise, but nothing happens other that for things to get worse.

Stuki
Stuki

Since, in any environment with any uncertainty, two is one and one is none: If you are to provide two parallel ways of voting, it really behooves those designing and overseeing the process, to ensure it is resilient enough to deal with what is essentially just prudent belt-and-suspenders behavior.

Biden really should tell "his" voters to do the same, considering the somewhat shoddy reputation US vote counting processes have developed over the past few elections.

Sechel
Sechel

The polls keep saying there are few undecided so how can Trump's chances rise?

Sechel
Sechel

The new game is turnout. The winner will be based on which side shows up in greater numbers. Mo one is undecided

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

I think even the right of center Republicans who were ashamed to say they voted for Trump in 2016 have now flipped to Biden. In Texas the libertarian candidate is polling high enough for Biden to win there. Trump only has a few bullets left in his arsenal - declare war against someone or call the election rigged and take it to the courts. Trump increasingly looks mentally erratic compared to people in their 80s or 90s. The stress of the job coupled with the egomaniac personality has pushed him beyond the point of no return. Hang onto your helmets.

Sechel
Sechel

Trump isn't warning of Democratic election fraud, he's signalling to his base that he wants them to commit the fraud and asking them to vote multiple times.

Herkie
Herkie

57 days till the election but Mish, early voting starts in PA which allows counties to start early voting 50 days prior to the election, so people will be casting ballots in 7 days, that is indeed not a lot of time left to turn it around. Two states, MN and SD, start early voting at 46 days, and 5 more states start the following day at 45. Then there is a 40 and a rash of 30's, so millions of votes will have been cast in the next couple weeks.

I have seen the effort to generate Trump enthusiasm on both Twitter and especially YouTube by claiming Trump is back in the lead not just catching up, and I am suspicious of their origins, they are not obviously American nor of any US based organizations, and their goal seems simple enough, generating false momentum they think will lead to the real thing.

It is my opinion though that Trump has lost many millions of his voters from 2016 when he convinced Hillary haters and a lot of indy voters to come over to his side.

Now though most of those plus a sizable chunk of regular republicans have abandoned him, if one is to judge by the tweets of hundreds of prominent republicans that say they are going to vote for Biden as a matter of national security and necessity. There is even one entire organization called the Lincoln Project that includes George Conway and former GOP head Michael Steele, among literally hundreds of prominent republicans to sign on and represent a new Never Trump wing of the GOP.

Wiki has a list of course:

This is a list of Republicans and conservatives who oppose or have declined to endorse the re-election of incumbent Donald Trump, the 2020 Republican Party nominee for President of the United States.

Former President Bush (2001-2009) is refusing to endorse Trump.

His own sister Maryanne Trump former federal judge from NJ will not endorse him.

Even Ann Coulter who would endorse a ham sandwich as long as it was both evil and republican will not endorse Trump.

What this leaves Trump with is a lot of money to generate ads that make it look like he has support, and a very loud and rabid Trump base that is disproportionately enthusiastic and use really big signs, but they only make up about 50 million of the 62.9 million votes he got in 2016. And I can guarantee on faith that not one Hillary voter ( 65,844,610 ) has changed their minds about Trump, in fact it would be fair to say they are ALL saying I TOLD YOU SO!

Now add to that a black turn out that will be a record because the African American community is exceptionally P.O.ed at what they see as borderline genocidal instincts on Trump's part. BLM, has millions of adherents, many, possibly in the tens of millions who are as much white and angry as black.

Yes Trump will still take most of the thinly populated red states and thus retain a large base in the electoral college that is out of any proportion to the popular vote, but when a long time incumbent like Lindsey Graham is statistically tied with a black rival for his seat in the senate in a state like South Carolina, you know the GOP is in deep trouble.

And that is another thing polling gives no weight to at all but will impact states far in excess of what we are reading in the media. States like AZ (11 electoral votes) that SHOULD be safe for the GOP and which they counted upon in past elections are now going to go blue simply because of down ballot votes. McSally the GOP incumbent is as good as 20 points behind Mark Kelley the astronaut challenger and a whole lot of those voters are not going to vote Trump. If even half the people voting for Kelly also vote for Biden that state flips.

What other states may flip because of this? NC, Tillis has been down by more than double the margin of error the entire race in NC. Colorado has a sitting GOP senator that also has been down a consistent 10 points to former Governor Hickenlooper who is very popular in that state, that senate seat will flip and see that Biden gets the 9 EC votes there.

Maine, Suzan Collins who by the way has refused to endorse Trump thus probably costing her at least some of the Trump base voters, is wildly unpopular in ME since her confirmation vote for Kavanaugh. Her challenger Sara Gideon has a lot of cash and is up in the polls, it looks grim for Collins and that by the way would be another senate flip bring the total to 4.

Even Texas is now within the margin of error on most polling. Sure Trump may survive there in a squeaker but it is symptomatic of a deep shift in opinion.

There are four more GOP senators that are a coin flip in their races as well, in Iowa, Montana, two in Georgia, even Sullivan in Alaska was tied with his dem supported independent rival in the only poll I have seen. The only Dem who will likely lose is Jones in Alabama, so with four dem wins and one loss we have a tied senate. One more of the several close races in other states will mean a flipped senate and a serious problem for Trump and the GOP.

Final word, I would not at all be surprised to see a final vote total for Trump of 50 million. Likely it will be more like 55 but I am certain even with population growth he will not capture even as many as he had last time, and I expect turnout to be heavy. Even if Trump has done a lot more to sabotage the vote than we already know about like the effort to have USPS deliver too late ballots and especially in dem districts.

I expect Biden will get all 65.4 million HRC voters plus many millions of 2016 Trump defectors, along with the nearly 10 million net new voters that have come of age during the Trump presidency. I can see him getting at least 70 million votes, and maybe a lot more. And remember that Trump has turned off millions of average republicans who may never be able to cast a ballot for Biden, but are not enthusiastic enough to cast one for Trump either.

Diesel50
Diesel50

Spot on!

Idaho
Idaho

“As Trump Endorsers Election Fraud...” Seriously? You could at least proof your TDS titles so they’d be legible. Interestingly, TDS went through the roof with the change to Street.com. Just a coincidence?

njbr
njbr

The people who vote early have decided already and can't wait to get their hands on a ballot. Who knows how much Trump's rhetoric suppressed his own peoples votes by down-talking mail-in voting?

We have the remainder of September and October to see the effects of school re-openings and the reddest parts of the country may be in the biggest trouble with the virus. Trump's continuing on his course of minimizing the virus and its effect and will run into areas where the mismatch of rhetoric and reality will be to big to ignore

I would suggest you look at the Georgia Tech website which handily estimates the probability of someone being infected at the event if you attend an event with 10, 25, 50 or a hundred people. There should be no surprise at the outbreaks that are yet to come.

njbr
njbr

Inept vote buying scheme--employed people who have mandatory buy-in on the payroll tax deferral are not all that happy about having some more money right now, but having to start to pay it back in 3 months. Federal employees and military are required to do so. Rest of the work force are not particularly interested.

Zardoz
Zardoz

Y'all remember this "Law and Order" BS when he's shrieking for his trumplings to take to the streets and kill all liberals rather than concede.

Kimo
Kimo

Perhaps a gentle nudge on Trump's part, in support of cancelling unsolicited balloting, and instead requiring voters to appear at the polling place, after all. Expect more nudges until successful?

awc13
awc13

and this is why vote by mail could be a mess. states that have been doing vote by mail have a requirement that your ballot be post marked around 1 to 2 weeks before the date to vote. that way they know on voting day whether your ballot has been received or not and they are able to count ALL ballots when the polls close.

this talk about letting mail ballots come in after the polls have closed and still be counted is BS.

the other way to do this to avoid ballot harvesting is to not do any counting or reporting of who has or hasn't voted until after the counting and results are done. if they want people to be able to mail in ballots on election day or even after election day, fine, keep all ballots in lock boxes until a week after the last day to m ail your ballot.

michiganmoon
michiganmoon

Trump is an egomaniac, but I think he proved a point with the vote twice tweet.

Republicans were worried that people would vote in person and by mail in ballot. Democrats and the media said that would be impossible. Trump then responds that his supporters should try it and then Democrats and the media scream bloody murder that it would be stealing the election.

Is it impossible or possible?

I got 5 ballot applications to my house earlier this summer and only 2 voters live here and at the same time Democrats pushed (unsuccessfully) to have signature verification removed from mail in ballots sent out to all.

nodhannum
nodhannum

Wish has turned into one sick TDS puppy. Soon he will be singing the Horst Wessel Lied.

Nickelodeon
Nickelodeon

Every time there's a BLM/Anti protest with property/people destruction, it's helps Trump from the viewpoint of the "undecided" IMO. The Left and Right see those events differently but aren't the swing vote. Normies watching Democrat run cities explode into lawlessness are probably smart enough to realize the implicit endorsement of such by most Democrats(or in the least excusing said actions) and it will shape their voting choice, again IMO. I think how many more we see between now and the election will have a large impact on the election outcome.


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