Yield Curve Flashing Biggest Recession Signal Yet: Shilling Thinks It Started!
On Friday, US Treasury yields plunged at the mid to long end of the curve providing the most inversions since the start of the Great Recession. This is the biggest recession warning since 2007.
Click on chart to expand.
Major portions of the yield curve are inverted for nearly 15 years.
Let's take a look at what others are saying.
Core Capital Goods
That is something I pointed out as well in Dismal Durable Goods Report: Inventories Up, Shipments and New Orders Down.
Core capital goods are a measure of future business expansion. The March revision to the downside was massive, from +1.3% to +0.3%. April was -0.9%. Economists expected +0.1%. Oops.
Strong Economy Not
GDP Assessment From Markit
1.2% and falling
What's the ECB Gonna Do?
Spotlight Trade War
What About Systemic Risks?
South Korea Exports
Major Appliance Shipments
Recession Already Started?!
Mike "Mish" Shedlock